Singapore's Lee will call early poll despite risks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Significance Bringing the poll forward could be risky for Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's People's Action Party (PAP), as it faces a new opposition party and worsening economic conditions. Impacts Tan Cheng Bock will at the next election attempt to unite the opposition behind his Progress Singapore Party. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat will likely succeed as prime minister when Lee eventually leaves the post. Singapore's economy is unlikely to benefit from any large-scale redirecting of investment from Hong Kong, despite the protests there.

Kazakh leader ponders future but tackles urgent tasks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Radical Islam ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Subject Political changes in Kazakhstan. Significance President Nursultan Nazarbayev has carried out the largest government reshuffle in two years, promoting Deputy Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev to head the cabinet and placing the outgoing prime minister, Karim Massimov, in charge of the security ministry. Nazarbayev's aims are twofold: to bring in fresh faces to tackle grave economic challenges, and to ensure his security services are able to clamp down on a rising terrorism problem. Impacts The government's top priorities will be to avert protests driven by economic conditions and deal with militant threats. Massimov's security measures will be complemented by the religious affairs ministry's scrutiny of radical Islam. Nazarbayev will seek to manage the succession to preserve his political legacy and his family's interests.

Even if politicians deal, Lebanon faces a bleak future

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Financial Strain ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Food Shortages

Significance The audit and wider structural economic reforms are preconditions for urgently needed foreign aid. Economic conditions in Lebanon are still worsening, with power cuts, food shortages and rising poverty. Impacts A new government would allow reform planning to resume and temporarily stall the decline of the currency. The easing of the global pandemic will somewhat reduce the financial strain, as Lebanon reopens its economy. Soaring poverty rates could provoke large-scale ‘bread riots’ in the coming months. Further devaluation of the currency will make poor Lebanese more dependent on sectarian protection and strengthen patronage. If the situation worsens, sectarian rural areas could revert to warlordism in the medium term.

Spain’s Sanchez reboots agenda with cabinet reshuffle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Young People ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Significance The reshuffle involves some significant changes, including the promotion of Economy Minister Nadia Calvino as first deputy prime minister. Other notable changes include new ministers at the head of foreign policy and territorial policy, which deals with relations with Catalonia. Impacts Sanchez has increased the number of women and young people in the new cabinet; this could broaden his appeal among centrist voters. While Madrid will continue to respect EU policy parameters, Sanchez’s continued reliance on UP and ERC support will worry investors. Sanchez’s leadership of the PSOE could come under threat if he is seen as ‘giving too much’ to Catalan nationalists.

Cambodia in 2018

Asian Survey ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-176
Author(s):  
Aurel Croissant
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Eu

In 2018, ever-incumbent Prime Minister Hun Sen scored a landslide victory in the Cambodian general elections. Three factors in particular explain this outcome. First, the elimination of the main opposition party, whose strategy of a peaceful election boycott failed. Second, favorable economic conditions and government handouts of spoils to constituencies that traditionally supported the opposition. Third, the weak leverage of the United States and the EU, and the Hun Sen regime’s strong links with China.

Modi’s Kashmir move puts India-Pakistan ties on brink

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Kashmir Valley ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Different Parts

Subject Consequences of India revoking Jammu and Kashmir's special constitutional status. Significance Delhi denies reports that there was a large-scale anti-India protest on August 9 in Srinagar, headquarters of the majority-Muslim Kashmir Valley. Much of Jammu and Kashmir has been on lockdown since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government on August 5 revoked the state’s special constitutional status and passed legislation to reorganise its governance. India and Pakistan administer different parts of Kashmir and dispute sovereignty over the region. Impacts China is unlikely to maintain much diplomatic pressure on India, following its initial expression of opposition to Delhi’s Kashmir move. Islamabad will urge Washington to confront Delhi over the Kashmir issue, probably to little avail. In India’s north-eastern states, fears that Delhi may attenuate special local rights are unlikely to be assuaged by government denials.

Prospects for East Asia in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Significant Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Prospects for East Asia in the second quarter of 2015. Significance Pronouncements made at the National People's Congress (NPC), which opened in Beijing yesterday, will give pointers on policy during the coming months. Debt has become a significant issue in the assessment of China's economic outlook. In Japan, nationwide local elections in April could see setbacks for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, hit in recent days by political funding scandals. Meanwhile, annual large-scale military exercises have just begun in South Korea, antagonising Pyongyang.

Ukrainian cabinet faces tough economic conditions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Competing Demands ◽  
Public Approval ◽  
The Imf

Subject The economic challenges facing the Ukrainian government. Significance Ukraine's new prime minister, Volodymyr Groisman, must manage competing demands, domestic and external. External lenders, principally the IMF, are pressing him to carry out overdue reforms that are likely to bring pain to the average Ukrainian hoping for swift improvements in living standards. As well as the ongoing conflict in the east, structural problems are constraining growth. Impacts A resumption in IMF payments will help the balance of payments and work towards currency stability. Slow and patchy recovery is unlikely to translate into higher wages and incomes. The Groisman government is unlikely to win public approval if conditions improve. Its survival will be at risk if there is no discernable change for the better.

Leadership questions will distract Canada's opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
International Negotiations ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Canada's main opposition parties -- the Conservatives and the NDP -- are entering a period of reconstruction and reinvention in the wake of October's election victory by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party, with implications for the government's political room for manoeuvre. Impacts Federal-provincial gridlock and economic concerns from the oil downturn will hinder Canadian climate policy-making. Should poor economic conditions persist despite the government's stimulus programme, the Conservatives could strengthen as a result. National-level scepticism of free trade in many countries will sap momentum in international negotiations, such as for TTIP.

Polish PiS may be largest party yet fail to govern

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
International Role ◽  
Policy Agendas

Significance Right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), the main opposition party, may emerge from the elections as the largest parliamentary group. However, it could find itself in opposition for lack of partners. Even if it secures a parliamentary majority, on its own or heading a coalition, the new government could be dogged by tensions between its leader and the prime minister-designate. Impacts PiS's pledges of socioeconomic reform and a more assertive international role suggest domestic and foreign policy discontinuity. However, the previous PiS government pursued relatively orthodox economic policies. PiS hostility to European integration was largely rhetorical; there may be less discontinuity in practice in economic and foreign policy. A PO-led coalition would be weak and unstable, uniting partners with different policy agendas and 'co-habiting' with a PiS president.

China pressure will grow on Hong Kong and Taiwan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
The Cross

Significance President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, has been courting Taiwan's China-friendly opposition party through a high-profile meeting in Beijing, as the island's China-sceptic government rapidly loses popularity. Impacts Resentment in Hong Kong will fuel more street activism and judicial opposition, making businesses wary but not disrupting operations. Beijing shows little interest in intervening on legal matters that affect business in Hong Kong. Taipei will reach out to other governments, hoping to compensate for the economic damage caused by the cross-Strait chill. Governments and international forums will face Chinese pressure not to engage with Taiwan until its government makes symbolic concessions.

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