scholarly journals The relevance of inter-market research to knowledge accessibility in property markets: lessons for Nigeria from the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ndubisi Onwuanyi ◽  
Abiodun Kolawole Oyetunji
Keyword(s):  
Market Research ◽  
Information Source ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Market Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Urban Markets ◽  
Market Competitiveness ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Search Approach ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThis paper explores the relevance of inter-market research to improving knowledge in property markets. It focuses on Nigeria's emergent property market which JLL (2018) suggests is information challenged. Given the country's lack of property data management, it is posited that inter-market studies can help to improve information supply and market knowledge. Inter-market research in Nigeria is compared with the UK's established market where such research is a key information source.Design/methodology/approachAn online database search was used to collate published intra-market and inter-market research on Nigeria's property market between 2009 and 2019. The inter-market research were thereafter examined as to volume and scope (geographical and thematic) and compared with the UK's.FindingsRelative to the UK, the volume as well as scope (geographical and thematic) of inter-market research in Nigeria are respectively far lower and narrower, thereby producing less information overall. Only a few Nigerian studies provide insights of two or more local markets. There is little or no research on many important market issues and other urban markets in the system. This suggests that inter-market research is relatively undeveloped in Nigeria.Research limitations/implicationsThe online search approach used to assemble extant research in the absence of a research repository may have resulted in the omission of some inter-market research undertaken between 2009 and 2019 if these were not published online.Practical implicationsThe dearth of inter-market research in Nigeria suggests an inadequately researched market. This limits market information, market knowledge, suggests a low market competitiveness with implications for development in view of the role of property in the modern economy.Originality/valueIn view of the little attention given to inter-market research in Nigeria, this study draws attention to its potential for improving market knowledge by the production of information which has a wider market relevance.

Strange attractor in the Auckland commercial property market

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 579-596
Author(s):  
Moshe Szweizer
Keyword(s):  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Mathematical Reasoning ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Property Market ◽  
General Behaviour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Market Conduct ◽  
Property Markets ◽  
Market Behaviour

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is presented in two parts. In the first, rigorous mathematical reasoning is entertained, so to derive an attractor describing a set of feedback formulae. In the second part, the attractor definition is used to model the Auckland commercial office market. The model is exposed through a set of seven scenarios allowing for analysis of the market behaviour under various exogenously imposed conditions.FindingsThe general behaviour of the model is in agreement with the commercial property market conduct observed in Auckland. The model provides information related to the market turning points and allows for an explanation of some intricate market dynamics. These include the anatomy of a market peak and its response to the liquidity oversupply.Practical implicationsThe model may be used to expand our understanding of the market performance under various exogenically imposed conditions, which allows for planning of market interventions in a more refined manner.Originality/valueThe paper is original, in the way the chaos theory is applied to the property markets modelling and allows for expanding the understanding of the market behaviour.

Using system dynamics modelling to understand behaviour in UK commercial property markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Trevillion
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systems Theory ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Research Tool ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Dynamics Modelling ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to outline the benefits of using system dynamics modelling as a research tool to understand the dynamics of commercial property markets in the UK and their long-term behaviour. It highlights areas for future work.Design/methodology/approachThis is a concept paper that outlines a simple systems model of rental change in UK commercial property markets as a way of illustrating how a systems approach can be used to describe and model the market. The model concentrates on the user market and offers a view of market operation, according to which development activity is initiated by demand (linked to economic growth) and to which supply responds by producing development.FindingsThe model demonstrates how a systems approach can be used to model the impact of a wide range of market variables on rental growth. The approach allows non-linear modelling of the complex relationships and behavioural factors that are difficult to include in existing econometric models of the market. It highlights where existing knowledge is deficient, especially with regard to price elasticity of demand, the relationship between economic activity and take up, the potential impact of redevelopment on the supply of new property and rental growth and response times of various parts of the market development process to market signals. It outlines where further research is needed to incorporate real market data.Originality/valueDespite the wide application of the systems theory to business and other related areas, its use in commercial property research has been limited and has not gained much traction as a research tool. The work represents one of a very few studies applying the systems theory to the UK commercial property market.

scholarly journals How long is UK property cycle?

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 410-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arvydas Jadevicius ◽  
Simon Hugh Huston
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Cycle Duration ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Step Algorithm ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycles, their volatility and persistence to gauge future market direction. Design/methodology/approach The study employs a novel approach to dissect cycles in a form of a three-step algorithm. First, the Hodrick-Prescott de-trends the selected variables. Second, volatility (measured by the variance) screens periods of atypical fluctuations in the series. Finally, the series is regressed against its past values to assess the level of persistence. The sequential steps screen the length of the cycles in UK commercial property market to facilitate interpretation. Findings The estimates suggest that UK commercial property market follows an eight-year cycle. Combined modelling results indicate that the current market trend is likely to change over the coming year. The modelling suggests increasing probability of a market correction in late 2016/early 2017. Practical implications This updated appreciation of the UK commercial property cycle duration allows for better market timing and investment decision making. Originality/value The paper adds additional evidence on the contested issue of UK commercial property cycle duration.

Modelling energy retrofit investments in the UK housing market

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Adan ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Efficiency Measures ◽  
Energy Retrofit ◽  
Efficiency Measures ◽  
The Uk

Purpose – Improving the energy efficiency of the existing residential building stock has been identified as a key policy aim in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to review the extant literature on investment decisions in domestic energy efficiency and presents a model that is both grounded in microeconomic theory and empirically tractable. Design/methodology/approach – This study develops a modified and extended version of an existing microeconomic model to embed the retrofit investment decision in a residential property market context, taking into account tenants’ willingness to pay and cost-reducing synergies. A simple empirical test of the link between energy efficiency measures and housing market dynamics is then conducted. Findings – The empirical data analysis for England indicates that where house prices are low, energy efficiency measures tend to increase the value of a house more in relative terms compared to higher-priced regions. Second, where housing markets are tight, landlords and sellers will be successful even without investing in energy efficiency measures. Third, where wages and incomes are low, the potential gains from energy savings make up a larger proportion of those incomes compared to more affluent regions. This, in turn, acts as a further incentive for an energy retrofit. Finally, the UK government has been operating a subsidy scheme which allows all households below a certain income threshold to have certain energy efficiency measures carried out for free. In regions, where a larger proportion of households are eligible for these subsidies,the authors also expect a larger uptake. Originality/value – While the financial metrics of retrofit measures are by now well understood, most of the existing studies tend to view these investments in isolation, not as part of a larger bundle of considerations by landlords and owners of how energy retrofits might influence a property’s rent, price and appreciation rate. In this paper, the authors argue that establishing this link is crucial for a better understanding of the retrofit investment decision.

The problematic differentiation between property bonds and leases in healthcare provision

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Ellison ◽  
Graham Squires ◽  
Patrick Dempsey
Keyword(s):  
Government Regulation ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Healthcare Provision ◽  
Institutional Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Original Insight ◽  
The Uk ◽  
New Instruments ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose – There are some 487,000 places in long-stay residential care and nursing homes in the UK representing an industry worth some £15.2 billion per annum. Creating leases with guaranteed rental uplifts, a property bond in all but name, now attracts significant investment into healthcare. This is argued to be unsustainable, as evidenced by the collapse of Southern Cross Healthcare. The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into institutional investment for sustainable healthcare provision. Design/methodology/approach – It is carried out via a range of unstructured and semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of a small elite of professionals involved at the summit of this investment market and analysis of secondary literature concerning the wider international property market regarding the way in which advisers and investors view the security and value of these new instruments. Findings – It is found that the differentiation between rental growth and indexed rental uplifts reveal a misunderstanding of the nature of the investment vehicles currently being marketed. Practical implications – The implication of the research, is that much modern private healthcare provision is financially unsustainable, as has begun to be recognised in recent government regulation and guidance. Originality/value – This research provides new and original insight into institutional investment for sustainable healthcare provision

scholarly journals The “glocalisation” of Istanbul's retail property market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Eren ◽  
John Henneberry
Keyword(s):  
Local Property ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Change ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Retail Property ◽  
Elite Interviews ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThe continuation of globalisation and liberalisation processes has prompted the restructuring of many national and local property markets. The research examines the evolution of Istanbul's retail property market to identify how global and local agents engage with one another to produce a unique “glocalized” outcome.Design/methodology/approachThe morphogenetic approach is adapted and applied to analyse the dynamics of market change. The focus is on the character and behaviour of national and international market actors and how they interact with the wider political economy. The research uses a combination of elite interviews, document analysis and corporate case studies to obtain empirical evidence.FindingsThe liberalisation of the Turkish economy heralded the entry of the first international companies into Istanbul's retail property market in the 1990s. International involvement expanded rapidly after 2004, accelerating the process of market re-structuring. However, while the number of global buy-outs increased, the expansion of local property companies–and the establishment of some international/national corporate partnerships–was even more marked. This resulted in a “glocalised” market with a strong and distinctive local culture.Originality/valueIstanbul has been a major centre of trade for millenia. This is the first substantive analysis of the recent restructuring of the city's retail property market. Previous research on market maturity and market evolution has paid limited attention to the dynamics of change. The paper describes the use of a process-based theoretical framework (morphogenesis) that was explicitly designed to analyse structural shifts in socio-economic conditions through an examination of the characteristics and behaviours of the actors involved.

scholarly journals Commercial leases in the UK regions: business as usual?

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 227-253
Author(s):  
Danielle McCluskey ◽  
Lay Cheng Lim ◽  
Michael McCord ◽  
Peadar Thomas Davis
Keyword(s):  
Past Research ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Survey Analysis ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Tenant Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the changing nature of commercial leases with specific reference to the landlord and tenant relationship, lease lengths and incentivisation in the post-recessionary UK property market. Design/methodology/approach The research applies data analysis utilising the Estates Gazette Interactive database coupled with survey analysis conducted across three UK cities to investigate and compare the changing nature of the commercial property leasing market and the landlord and tenant relationship. Findings The empirical analysis highlights that recessionary conditions prevalent in the market from the 2007 global crisis has caused a reassessment of lease structures, leading to shorter lease terms and increased use of incentives, as tenants have been empowered to negotiate more flexible leases due to their stronger market position. Originality/value This paper builds upon previous research conducted back in 2005, investigating commercial leases in the market up-cycle. The recent volatility in the commercial property sector requires fresh insights and in-depth analysis of lease patterns, length and covenant strength, which is fundamental for investor decision-making. In addition, past research has tended to consider solely landlord or occupier perspectives, whereas this research offers new insight into the landlord–tenant lease negotiation process.

Understanding rental prices in the UK: a comparative application of spatial modelling approaches

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. McCord ◽  
P.T. Davis ◽  
M. Haran ◽  
D. McIlhatton ◽  
J. McCord
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Filtering ◽  
Local Variation ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Purpose – Accounting for locational effects in determining price is of fundamental importance. The demise of the mainstream property market has culminated in increasing appetite and investment activity within the private rental sector. The primary purpose of this paper aims to analyse the local variation and spatial heterogeneity in residential rental prices in a large urban market in the UK using various geo-statistical approaches. Design/methodology/approach – Applying achieved price data derived from a leading internet-based rental agency for Belfast Northern Ireland is analysed in a number of spatially based modelling frameworks encompassing more traditional approaches such as hedonic regressive models to more complex spatial filtering methods to estimate rental values as a function of the properties implicit characteristics and spatial measures. Findings – The principal findings show the efficacy of the geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique as it provides increased accuracy in predicting marginal price estimates relative to other spatial techniques. The results reveal complex spatial non-stationarity across the Belfast metropole emphasizing the premise of location in determining and understanding rental market performance. A key finding emanating from the research is that the high level of segmentation across localised pockets of the Belfast market, as a consequence of socio-political conflict and ethno-religious territoriality segregation, requires further analytical insight and model specification in order to understand the exogenous spatial and societal effects/implications for rental value. Originality/value – This study is one of only a few investigations of spatial residential rent price variation applying the GWR methodology, spatial filtering and other spatial techniques within the confines of a UK housing market. In the context of residential rent prices, the research highlights that a soft segmentation modelling approaches are essential for understanding rental gradients in a polarised ethnocratic city.

Achieving property valuation accuracy in developing countries: the implication of data source

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 573-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rotimi Boluwatife Abidoye ◽  
Albert P.C. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Data Bank ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transaction Data ◽  
Property Valuation ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThe demand for accurate property value estimation by valuation report end users has led to a shift towards advanced property valuation modelling techniques in some property markets and these require a sizeable number of data set to function. In a situation where there is a lack of a centralised transaction data bank, scholars and practitioners usually collect data from different sources for analysis, which could affect the accuracy of property valuation estimates. This study aims to establish the suitability of different data sources that are reliable for estimating accurate property values.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts the Lagos metropolis property market, Nigeria, as the study area. Transaction data of residential properties are collected from two sources, i.e. from real estate firms (selling price) and listing prices from an online real estate company. A portion of the collected data is fitted into the artificial neural network (ANN) model, which is used to predict the remaining property prices. The holdout sample data are predicted with the developed ANN models. Thereafter, the predicted prices and the actual prices are compared so as to establish which data set generates the most accurate property valuation estimates.FindingsIt is found that the listing data (listing prices) produced an encouraging mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values compared with the firms’ data (selling prices). An MAPE value of 26.93 and 29.96 per cent was generated from the listing and firms’ data, respectively. A larger proportion of the predicted listing prices had property valuation error of margin that is within the industry acceptable standard of between ±0 and 10 per cent, compared with the predicted selling prices. Also, a higher valuation accuracy was recorded in properties with lower values, compared with expensive properties.Practical implicationsThe opaqueness in real estate transactions consummated in developing nations could be attributed to why selling prices (data) could not produce more accurate valuation estimates in this study than listing prices. Despite the encouraging results produced using listing prices, there is still an urgent need to maintain a robust and quality property data bank in developing nations, as obtainable in most developed nations, so as to achieve a sustainable global property valuation practice.Originality/valueThis study does not investigate the relationship between listing prices and selling prices, which has been conducted in previous studies, but examines their suitability to improve property valuation accuracy in an emerging property market. The findings of this study would be useful in property markets where property transaction data bank is not available.

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