Macroeconomic variables and stock indices: an asymmetric evidence from quantile ARDL model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bisharat Hussain Chang ◽  
Niaz Ahmed Bhutto ◽  
Jamshid Ali Turi ◽  
Shabir Mohsin Hashmi ◽  
Raheel Gohar
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Normal States

PurposeThis study examines the short-run and long-run impact of macroeconomic variables such as industrial production index, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, foreign direct investment and trade balance, on KSE 100 index and sectorial stock indices under bearish, bullish and normal states of the stock market prices. Moreover, we take into account the effect of three crises observed from 2005 to 2009.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) model for examining the short-run and long-run effect across various quantiles of the dependent variables and compare its' results standard autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.FindingsARDL estimates indicate that, in the long-run, industrial production index, trade balance and foreign direct investment significantly affect stock prices. These findings remain same when three crises have been taken into consideration. In addition, estimates from QARDL model indicate that, in the short-run, the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, consumer price index and foreign direct investment, varies across bearish, bullish and normal states of the overall stock prices. Moreover, the short-run findings for Auto Assembler, Cement, Commercial Banks sector are consistent with overall stock indices, whereas other sectors, such as, Oil and Gas and Power Generation and distribution are asymmetrically affected by all macroeconomic variables. In the long-run, the effect of all macro-variables varies across different states of the stock markets except industrial production index for Auto Assembler sector, Oil and Gas sector and composite index of KSE 100 index.Originality/valueWe take into account the effect of three crises observed from 2005 to 2009 and also examine the macroeconomic effect across bullish, bearish and normal states of the sectorial stock indices and composite index of Pakistan stock exchange. Finally, we use novel approach, called QARDL model, which has several advantages over other techniques.

scholarly journals The long run relationship between fish production, marine trade balance and foreign direct investment

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-280
Author(s):  
Naseem H. Jamei ◽  
Mira Nurmakhanova ◽  
Shahbaz Mustafa ◽  
Alloysius Egbulonu ◽  
Wagdi Hadidan
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Fish Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to focus on testing the long-run relationship between fish production and two main variables, the foreign direct investment inflow and the marine trade balance in Oman, which is one of the Arab Gulf countries, during the period 1985-2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses what known as the two-step Engle–Granger cointegration test to give evidence for the long-run relationship among the variables. Findings The results show that there are a negative long- and short-run relations between fish production and marine trade balance; moreover, any shocks will be corrected within two periods at the most.  Originality/value This study is one of few studies in using the econometric models to study the impact of fish production on marine trade balance and foreign direct investment.

The economic determinants of Chinese foreign direct investment in Egypt

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hany M Elshamy
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) by Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) over the period 1985-2011. Design/methodology/approach – This paper estimates a single equation model which uses long-run co-integration analysis and short-run analysis (error correction mechanism). This paper depends on annual data collected from the World Bank and the General Authority for Investment & Free zones Information & Decision Support Division for the period 1985-2011. Findings – This paper found a conventional result for market size. The author infers from the significant role played by Egyptian natural resource endowments that the institutional environment has strongly shaped Chinese FDI, leading to significant natural resources-seeking FDI. The author also finds that policy liberalisation in China has had a positive influence in stimulating Chinese FDI in Egypt. Originality/value – Despite this model being used to estimate the determinants of FDI by Chinese MNEs in several countries, this is the first time it is being used in Egypt using a time-series analysis. Moreover, this model which has been used in this paper uses both long-run and short-run analyses.

The impact of energy consumption to environmental sustainability: an extension of foreign direct investment induce pollution in Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tehreem Fatima ◽  
Muhammad Saeed Meo ◽  
Festus Victor Bekun ◽  
Tella Oluwatoba Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose According to the crusade of the United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs-6, 7,8,12 and 13) that addressed pertinent issues around, clean access to water, access to energy, responsible consumption and climate change mitigation alongside, respectively, Paris Kyoto Protocol agreement of mitigation of climate changes issues of vision 2030. Design/methodology/approach This purpose of this study aimed to assess the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis following the ecological footprint perspective with a data set covering the period 1995–2018. It is well-established that anthropogenic human activities are the root cause of environmental deterioration. To this end, the current study is fitted in a multivariate framework to ameliorate for omitted variable bias for the data set from 1995–2018 on a quarterly frequency using autoregressive distributive lag methodology. Subsequently, the stationarity status of the study underlines series were examined with a conventional unit root test and the Pesaran’s bounds test for cointegration analysis. Findings Empirical evidence from the bounds test to cointegration traces the co-integration relationship between ecological footprint, conventional energy use, foreign direct investment, international tourism arrival and water resources over the sampled period. The study, in the long run, affirms the N-shaped relationship between ecological footprint and foreign direct investment in Vietnam. Additionally, the present study validates the hypothesis of energy consumption-induced pollution emissions. The relationship between international tourism arrival and quality of the environment is statistically positive in both the short-run and long-run, as 1% in international tourism arrival worsens the quality of the environment by 0.45% and 0.4% in the short-run and long-run, respectively. Interestingly, water resource's major environmental issues that have plagued the Vietnam economy are inversely related to ecological footprint. Based on findings, Vietnamese policymakers may need to consider drafting appropriate environmental policies to tackle global warming while concurrently boosting economic development. Originality/value The present study focuses on Vietnam on the determinant of environmental quality measured by a broader indicator (ecological footprint). It is well-established that anthropogenic human activities are the root cause of environmental deterioration. The present study claims to distinct from previous literature in two-folds, namely, in terms of scope. Vietnam holds a very interesting energy mix and environmental dynamics, which has been ignored in the literature. Second, we argue to be the first based on our survey to explore the theme by incorporation of water resources and foreign direct investment intensification in the conventional pollution determinant model. This is in a bid to highlights the policy blueprint for the country (Vietnam), which is currently plagued with high pollution issues and the region at large.

Does infrastructure promote exports and foreign direct investment in selected Southeast Asian economies? An application of global infrastructure index

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faheem Ur Rehman ◽  
Abul Ala Noman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Southeast Asian ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Short Run

PurposeInfrastructure deficiency in Southeast Asian countries is ever growing and touched to a level where it harms the local economy as well as the international sector of the country. The gap between demand and supply for infrastructure is constantly on the upswing. The purpose of this study to investigate the effect of infrastructure on exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in selected Southeast Asian economies.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs the pooled mean group (PMG) technique to velaborate that how the infrastructure affects export and FDI in the short run and long run during 1990–2018. For cointegration, Pedroni and Kao tests are used. Dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and the fully modified least squares (FMOLSs) estimators are employed for robustness check.FindingsThe findings support that aggregate and sub-indices of infrastructure significantly promote the export and FDI inflow in the long run. Also infrastructure, export and FDI inflow are cointegrated in the long run. FMOLS and DOLS found the most robust results.Originality/valueInfrastructure development in determining trade and FDI has established a significant deal of attention in the modern era where a plethora of research studies encourage the opinion that better infrastructure attracts FDI and enhances export. However, this study uses a global infrastructure index, which comprises the sub-indices like transport, telecommunication, energy and financial sector, which gives us a clear picture regarding how Southeast Asia can catch up FDI and export benefits through infrastructure.

Financial depth and the trade openness-economic growth nexus

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-45
Author(s):  
Rudra P. Pradhan ◽  
Mak Arvin ◽  
John H. Hall ◽  
Sara E. Bennett ◽  
Sahar Bahmani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Financial Depth ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the age-old trade-and-economic-growth controversy. The authors do so by utilizing the data relating to the G-20 countries between 1988 and 2013. Design/methodology/approach The authors seek to establish the formal statistical links between openness to trade and economic growth in the context of interactions with financial depth, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment. The authors use a panel vector autoregressive model to obtain the estimates. The authors check for the robustness of the results. Findings The authors find that all the variables are cointegrated. That is, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Moreover, trade openness, financial depth, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment are all causative factors for the economic growth of the G-20 countries in the long run. At the same time, the short-run results demonstrate that there is a myriad of causal links between these variables. Practical implications The decision makers in the G-20 countries wishing to encourage economic growth in the long run should pay close attention to trade openness, financial depth, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment inflows to their countries. Originality/value The authors study an important group of countries over a long span of time, using advanced panel data techniques. The results demonstrate that future studies on economic growth that do not simultaneously consider trade openness, financial depth, foreign direct investment, and gross capital formation will offer biased or misguided results.

scholarly journals Analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Asiamah ◽  
Daniel Ofori ◽  
Jacob Afful
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose The factors that determine foreign direct investment (FDI) are important to policy-makers, investors, the banking industry and the public at large. FDI in Ghana has received increased attention in recent times because its relevance in the Ghanaian economy is too critical to gloss over. The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of FDI in Ghana between the period of 1990 and 2015. Design/methodology/approach The study employed a causal research design. The study used the Johansen’s approach to cointegration within the framework of vector autoregressive for the data analysis. Findings The study found a cointegrating relationship between FDI and its determinants. The study found that both the long-run and short-run results found statistically significant negative effects of inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate on FDI in Ghana while gross domestic product, electricity production and telephone usage (TU) had a positive effect on FDI. Research limitations/implications The study found a cointegrating relationship between FDI and its determinants. The study found that both the long-run and short-run results found statistically significant negative effects of inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate on FDI in Ghana whiles gross domestic product, electricity production and TU had a positive effect on FDI. Practical implications This study has potential implication for boosting the economies of developing countries through its policy recommendations which if implemented can guarantee more capital inflows for the economies. Social implications This study has given more effective ways of attracting more FDI into countries which in effect achieve higher GDP and also higher standard of living through mechanisms and in the end creating more social protection programs for the people. Originality/value Although studies have been conducted to explore the determinants of FDI, some of the core macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate, telephone subscriptions, electricity production, etc., which are unstable and have longstanding effects on FDI have not been much explored to a give a clear picture of the relationships. Therefore, a study that will explore these and other macroeconomic variables to give clear picture of their relationships and suggest some of the possible ways of dealing with these variables in order to attract more FDI for the country to achieve its goal is what this paper seeks to do.

Attaining economic growth through financial development and foreign direct investment

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1201-1223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudra Pradhan ◽  
Mak B. Arvin ◽  
Sahar Bahmani ◽  
John H. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Financial Infrastructure ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to consider the heterogeneous relationship among financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth, examining the possible directions of causality among them in both the short and long runs. Design/methodology/approach A sample of the G-20 countries over the period 1970–2016 is utilized. A vector error-correction model is used to consider the possible directions of causality among financial development, FDI and economic growth. Findings Results suggest a cointegrating relationship among the three series. Although short-run links among the variables are mostly non-uniform, both financial development and FDI matter in the determination of long-run economic growth. Practical implications Attention must be paid to policies that promote financial development. This, in turn, calls for fostering incentives to guarantee continued support to liberalize the economy and promoting capital openness. Additionally, financial infrastructure should be improved to improve financial innovation. The establishment of a well-developed financial market, including well-functioning banks and other financial institutions, can facilitate further investment and an easier means of raising capital to support the activities of FDI. Economic growth can ultimately be elevated through both financial development and FDI. Originality/value The study considers a sample of the G-20 countries, which have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In addition, the study concurrently analyses the trivariate causal relationship among financial development, FDI and economic growth, a topic on which there has been a dearth of research.

scholarly journals Exploring the links between financial flows and economic growth: a panel ARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amna Zardoub
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose Globalization occupies a central research activity and remains an increasingly controversial phenomenon in economics. This phenomenon corresponds to a subject that can be criticized through its impact on national economies. On the other hand, the world economy is evolving in a liberalized environment in which foreign direct investment plays a fundamental role in the economic development of each country. The advent of financial flows – foreign direct investment, remittances and official development assistance – can be a key factor in the development of the economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of financial flows on economic growth in developing countries. Empirically, different approaches have been used. As part of this study, an attempt was made to use a combined autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) panel approach to study the short-term and long-run effects of financial flows on economic growth. The results indicate ambiguous effects. Economically, the effect of financial flows on economic growth depends on the investor’s expectations. Design/methodology/approach To study the short-run and long-run effects of financial flows on economic growth, this paper considers an empirical approach based on the panel ARDL. This model makes it possible to distinguish between the short-run effect and the long-run one. This type of model is based on three estimators, namely, mean group, pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect. Findings Results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship because the adjustment coefficient (error correction parameter) is negative and statistically significant. This paper finds that the PMG estimator is more consistent and more efficient. In the short-run, foreign direct investment do negatively affect economic growth, the effect is no significant in the long-run. On the other hand, the effect of remittances on economic growth is significant in the short-run. However, it is no significant in the long-run. Finally, the results suggest that the effect of official development assistance on economic growth is insignificant; both in the long-run and in the short-run. Originality/value To study the interaction between financial flows and economic growth, some empirical methodology are used such as the dynamic panel data and the autoregressive vector (VAR) model. In this study, we apply the panel ARDL model to analyze the short-run and the long-run effect for each financial flow on economic growth. The objective is to study the heterogeneity on dynamic adjustment in the short-term and long-term.

An Empirical Investigation of India’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Macro Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Dikshita Kakoti
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Outward Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Since 1990, globalization of Indian economy led to a speedy growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and simultaneously outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) also shows an increasing trend. However, India’s OFDI has attracted a little attention from the researchers and they have considered the OFDI in terms of commitments or approved equities. The motivation of this article is to investigate the India’s macro factors influencing actual OFDI flows from India by empirically recognizing four factors, namely gross domestic product, inward FDI, real effective exchange rate, and real interest rate over the period 1980–2016. The study has used Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) Unit root tests for checking the stationarity of the variable of the model. Later on, autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and error correction mechanism is used for testing the long-run as well as short-run dynamics of the model. The result shows that all the selected variables have positive and significant influence on India’s outward investment flows.

Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and sovereign credit default swap in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 368-380
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Farooq Ahmad ◽  
Ammara Yasmin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose This paper aims to empirically examine the long- and short-run relationship between macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, interest rates, exports, imports, foreign reserves and the rate of inflation) and sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) spreads for Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore the level relationship between the macroeconomic variables and SCDS spreads. The error correction model is estimated to examine the short-run effects of the underlying macroeconomic variables on SCDS spreads. Finally, the long-run estimates are obtained in the ARDL framework. The study uses monthly data covering the period January 2001-February 2015. Findings The results indicate that there is a significant long-run relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and SCDS spreads. The estimated long-run coefficients reveal that both the interest rate and foreign exchange reserves are significantly and negatively, whereas imports and the rate of inflation are positively related to SCDS spreads. Yet, the results suggest that the exchange rate and exports do not have any significant long-run impact on SCDS spreads. The findings regarding the short-run relationship indicate that the exchange rate, imports and the rate of inflation are positively, whereas the interest rate and exports are negatively related to SCDS spreads. Practical implications The results suggest that State Bank of Pakistan should design monetary and foreign exchange rate polices to minimize unwanted variations in the exchange rate to reduce SCDS spreads. The results also suggest that it is incumbent to Pakistan Government to improve the balance of payments to reduce SCDS spreads. The findings also suggest that the inflation targeting policy can also help in reducing SCDS spreads. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the empirical determinants of SCDS spreads for Pakistan. Second, it estimates the short- and long-run effects in the ARDL framework. Third, it considers both internal and external empirical determinants of SCDS spreads.

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