New Directions in Electronic Disease Surveillance: Detection of Infectious Diseases during the Incubation Period

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taxiarchis Botsis ◽  
Johan Gustav Bellika ◽  
Gunnar Hartvigsen
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
New Directions

scholarly journals Towards One Health Knowledge Networks: A Southern African Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance case study

2012 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Beda
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
One Health ◽  
Health Knowledge ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Knowledge Network ◽  
Infectious Disease Surveillance

The dynamic nature of new information and/or knowledge is a big challenge for information systems. Early knowledge management systems focused entirely on technologies for storing, searching and retrieving data; these systems have proved a failure. Juirsica and Mylopoulos1 suggested that in order to build effective technologies for knowledge management, we need to further our understanding of how individuals, groups and organisations use knowledge. As the focus on knowledge management for organisations and consortia alike is moving towards a keen appreciation of how deeply knowledge is embedded in people’s experiences, there is a general realisation that knowledge cannot be stored or captured digitally. This puts more emphasis in creating enabling environments for interactions that stimulate knowledge sharing.Our work aims at developing an un-obtrusive intelligent system that glues together effective contemporary and traditional technologies to aid these interactions and manage the information captured. In addition this system will include tools to aid propagating a repository of scientific information relevant to surveillance of infectious diseases to complement knowledge shared and/or acts as a point of reference.This work is ongoing and based on experiences in developing a knowledge network management system for the Southern African Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance (SACIDS), A One Health consortium of southern African academic and research institutions involved with infectious diseases of humans and animals in partnership with world-renowned centres of research in industrialised countries.

scholarly journals New edition of International Travel and Health book from WHO

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Ciotti
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
The World

International travel is undertaken by large, and ever increasing, numbers of people. More people travel longer distances and at greater speed than ever before; an upward trend that looks set to continue. Travellers are thus exposed to a variety of health risks in unfamiliar environments. Most of these risks, however, can be minimised by suitable precautions taken before, during, and after travel. Virtually any place in the world can be reached within 36 hours, less than the incubation period for most infectious diseases.

Climate Change-Associated Conflict and Infectious Disease

2017 ◽  
pp. 68-88
Author(s):  
Devin C. Bowles
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Health Personnel ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Food Scarcity ◽  
Surveillance Programs

One of the least appreciated mechanisms by which climate change will affect infectious diseases is via increased violent conflict. Climate change will diminish agricultural and pastoral resources and increase food scarcity in many areas, including already impoverished equatorial regions. Many in the defence and public health fields anticipate that climate change will increase conflict by fuelling competition over scarce resources. Already, some commentators argue that the conflicts in Darfur and Syria were partially caused or exacerbated by climate change. Conflict facilitates a range of conditions conducive to the spread of many infectious diseases, including malnutrition, forced migration, unhygienic living conditions and widespread sexual assault. Flight or killing of health personnel inhibits vaccination, vector control and disease surveillance programs. Emergence of new diseases may go undetected and discovery of outbreaks could be suppressed for strategic reasons. These conditions combine to increase the risk of pandemics.

scholarly journals Temporal and spatial distribution of anthrax outbreaks among Kenyan wildlife, 1999–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Gachohi ◽  
F. Gakuya ◽  
I. Lekolool ◽  
E. Osoro ◽  
L. Nderitu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Conservation Areas ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽  
Ecological Zones ◽  
Herbivore Species ◽  
Multiple Species

Abstract The burden of anthrax in wildlife is demonstrated through high numbers of sudden mortalities among herbivore species, including endangered animal species. East Africa is home of multiple species of faunal wildlife numbering in the millions but there are limited disease surveillance programmes, resulting in a paucity of information on the role of anthrax and other infectious diseases on declining wildlife populations in the region. We reviewed historical data on anthrax outbreaks from Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) spanning from 1999 to 2017 in Kenya to determine the burden, characteristics and spatial distribution of anthrax outbreaks. A total of 51 anthrax outbreaks associated with 1014 animal deaths were reported across 20 of 60 wildlife conservation areas located in six of the seven agro-ecological zones. Overall, 67% of the outbreaks were reported during the dry seasons, affecting 24 different wildlife species. Over 90% (22 of 24) of the affected species were herbivore, including 12 grazers, five browsers and five mixed grazers and browsers. Buffaloes (23.5%), black rhinos (21.6%) and elephants (17.6%) were the most frequently affected species. Our findings demonstrate the extensive geographic distribution of wildlife anthrax in the country, making it one of the important infectious diseases that threaten wildlife conservation.

scholarly journals Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of outbreaks: analysis of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Corey M. Peak ◽  
Juan Fernández-Gracia ◽  
Alexandra Hill ◽  
Amara Jambai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Population Connectivity ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Incubation Periods ◽  
The Impact

AbstractForecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen’s underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen’s incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel further before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera.Significance statementUnderstanding how infectious diseases spread is critical for preventing and containing outbreaks. While advances have been made in forecasting epidemics, much is still unknown. Here we show that the incubation period – the time between exposure to a pathogen and onset of symptoms – is an important factor in predicting spatiotemporal spread of disease and provides one explanation for the different trajectories of the recent Ebola and cholera outbreaks in Sierra Leone. We find that outbreaks of pathogens with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, tend to have less predictable spread, whereas pathogens with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera, spread in a more predictable, wavelike pattern. These findings have implications for the scale and timing of reactive interventions, such as vaccination campaigns.

scholarly journals When might Host Heterogeneity Drive the Evolution of Asymptomatic, Pandemic Coronaviruses?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenichi W. Okamoto ◽  
Virakbott Ong ◽  
Robert G. Wallace ◽  
Rodrick Wallace ◽  
Luis Fernando Chaves
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Fitness Landscape ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Suppression ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Pathogen Strains ◽  
Host Heterogeneity

For most emerging infectious diseases, including SARS-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), pharmaceutical intervensions such as drugs and vaccines are not available, and disease surveillance followed by isolating, contact-tracing and quarantining infectious individuals is critical for controlling outbreaks. These interventions often begin by identifying symptomatic individuals. However, by actively removing pathogen strains likely to be symptomatic, such interventions may inadvertently select for strains less likely to result in symptomatic infections. Additionally, the pathogen's fitness landscape is structured around a heterogeneous host pool. In particular, uneven surveillance efforts and distinct transmission risks across host classes can drastically alter selection pressures. Here we explore this interplay between evolution caused by disease control efforts, on the one hand, and host heterogeneity in the efficacy of public health interventions on the other, on the potential for a less symptomatic, but widespread, pathogen to evolve. We use an evolutionary epidemiology model parameterized for SARS-CoV-2, as the widespread potential for silent transmission by asymptomatic hosts has been hypothesized to account, in part, for its rapid global spread. We show that relying on symptoms-driven reporting for disease control ultimately shifts the pathogen's fitness landscape and can cause pandemics. We find such outcomes result when isolation and quarantine efforts are intense, but insufficient for suppression. We further show that when host removal depends on the prevalence of symptomatic infections, intense isolation efforts can select for the emergence and extensive spread of more asymptomatic strains. The severity of selection pressure on pathogens caused by these interventions likely lies somewhere between the extremes of no intervention and thoroughly successful eradication. Identifying the levels of public health responses that facilitate selection for asymptomatic pathogen strains is therefore critical for calibrating disease suppression and surveillance efforts and for sustainably managing emerging infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Modeling and Analyzing Transmission of Infectious Diseases Using Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 8400
Author(s):  
Lei Peng ◽  
Penghui Xie ◽  
Zhe Tang ◽  
Fei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Petri Net ◽  
Stochastic Petri Nets ◽  
System Level ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Surveillance And Response ◽  
Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
Generalized Stochastic Petri Net

Some infectious diseases such as COVID-19 have the characteristics of long incubation period, high infectivity during the incubation period, and carriers with mild or no symptoms which are more likely to cause negligence. Global researchers are working to find out more about the transmission of infectious diseases. Modeling plays a crucial role in understanding the transmission of the new virus and helps show the evolution of the epidemic in stages. In this paper, we propose a new general transmission model of infectious diseases based on the generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN). First, we qualitatively analyze the transmission mode of each stage of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and explain the factors that affect the spread of the epidemic. Second, the GSPN model is built to simulate the evolution of the epidemic. Based on this model’s isomorphic Markov chain, the equilibrium state of the system and its changing laws under different influencing factors are analyzed. Our paper demonstrates that the proposed GSPN model is a compelling tool for representing and analyzing the transmission of infectious diseases from system-level understanding, and thus contributes to providing decision support for effective surveillance and response to epidemic development.

EXPERIENCE ON LIQUIDATION OF FOCI OF ORNITHOSIS IN THE ORENBURG REGION

2018 ◽  
pp. 58-60
Author(s):  
N.E. Vyaltsina ◽  
A.G. Yakovlev ◽  
E.G. Plotnikova ◽  
N.N. Vereshchagin ◽  
A.G. Korneev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Delayed Diagnosis ◽  
Veterinary Service ◽  
Orenburg Region ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

The article presents the experience of the Office of Rospotrebnadzor in the Orenburg region on eradication of an ornithosis outbreak. The incidence of people with ornithosis was a consequence of gross violations of veterinary and sanitary rules, namely rules of birds keeping, their transportation, delayed diagnosis of ornithosis by veterinary service and inopportune realization of antiepizootic measures. The cooperation of Rospotrebnadzor Office in the Orenburg region with all interested services allowed to stop the outbreak of ornithosis during one incubation period and had a positive impact on further work on the prevention of infectious diseases. Since 2009 the epidemiological situation of ornithosis in the region remains safe.

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