Reducing bias in risk indices for COVID-19

Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases and/or regional positivity rates. Although observing changes of these indices over time is critical to estimate the regional disease burden, the dynamical properties of these measures, as well as crossrelationships, are usually not systematically given or explained. Here we provide a spatiotemporal framework composed of six commonly used and newly constructed epidemiological metrics and conduct a case study evaluation. We introduce a refined risk estimate that is biased neither by variation in population size nor by the spatial heterogeneity of testing. In particular, the proposed methodology would be useful for unbiased identification of time periods with elevated COVID-19 risk without sensitivity to spatial heterogeneity of neither population nor testing coverage.We offer a case study in Poland that shows improvement over the bias of currently used methods. Our results also provide insights regarding regional prioritisation of testing and the consequences of potential synchronisation of epidemics between regions. The approach should apply to other infectious diseases and other geographical areas.

Radiotherapy in the Treatment of Subcutaneous Melanoma

Malignant melanoma frequently develops cutaneous and/or subcutaneous metastases during the course of the disease. These may present as non-nodal locoregional metastases (microsatellite, satellite, or in-transit) included in stage III or as distant metastases in stage IV. Their presentation is heterogeneous and associated with significant morbidity resulting from both disease-related functional damage and treatment side effects. The standard treatment is surgical excision, whereas local therapies or systemic therapies have a role when surgery is not indicated. Radiotherapy can be used in the local management of ITM, subcutaneous relapses, or distant metastases to provide symptom relief and prolong regional disease control. To increase the local response without increasing toxicity, the addition of hyperthermia and intralesional therapies to radiotherapy appear to be very promising. Boron neutron capture therapy, based on nuclear neutron capture and boron isotope fission reaction, could be an alternative to standard treatments, but its use in clinical practice is still limited. The potential benefit of combining radiotherapy with targeted therapies and immunotherapy has yet to be explored in this lesion setting. This review explores the role of radiotherapy in the treatment of cutaneous and subcutaneous lesions, its impact on outcomes, and its association with other treatment modalities.

Patterns of Failure After Definitive Treatment of T4a Larynx Cancer

Objective Recurrence is known to predict laryngeal squamous cell cancer (LSCC) survival. Recurrence patterns in T4a LSCC are poorly characterized and represent a possible explanation for observed survival discrepancies by treatment rendered. Study Design Retrospective database review. Setting Veterans Affairs national database. Methods Patients with T4a LSCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified and stratified by treatment (chemoradiotherapy [CRT] vs total laryngectomy + neck dissection + adjuvant therapy [surgical]). Primary outcomes were locoregional and distant recurrence. Secondary outcomes of overall mortality, larynx cancer mortality, and noncancer mortality were evaluated in Cox and Fine-Gray models. Results A total of 1043 patients had comparable baseline demographics: 438 in the CRT group and 605 in the surgical group. Patients undergoing CRT had higher proportions of node positivity (64.6% vs 53.1%, P < .001). Locoregional and distant recurrence were less common in the surgical group (23.0% vs 37.2%, P < .001; 6.8% vs 13.3%, P < .001, respectively); however, distant metastatic rates did not differ within the N0 subgroup ( P = .722). On multivariable regression, surgery demonstrated favorable locoregional recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% CI, 0.39-0.62; P < .001), distant recurrence (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.31-0.71; P < .001), overall mortality (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.64-0.87; P < .001), and larynx cancer mortality (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.56-0.85; P < .001). Conclusion T4a LSCC survival discrepancies between surgical and nonsurgical treatment are influenced by varying recurrence behaviors. Surgery was associated with superior disease control and improved survival. Beyond the known benefit in locoregional control with surgery, there may be a protective effect on distant recurrence that depends on regional disease burden.

The Role of Regional Disease and Patterns of Treatment Failure in Primary Sinonasal Malignancies

Background The question how to treat the clinically negative neck in sinonasal malignancies is controversial. Objectives To investigate patterns of treatment failure and to assess outcome measures in patients with primary sinonasal malignancies. Methods Retrospective cohort study of patients treated for primary malignant sinonasal malignancies. Results Lymph node (LN) metastases at initial presentation were present in 8 of 152 patients (5.3%). Ipsi- and contralateral LN levels 1 and 2 were identified as nodal basins at risk. We found a 5-year overall survival (OS) of 75.2% and disease free survival of 61.1%. Among patients with cN0 neck, nodal recurrence free survival was not different between patients with and without elective neck treatment ( P = .23). On logistic regression analysis, we found initial T classification as an independent factor for achievement of complete remission (CR) and OS. Conclusions LN metastases at initial presentation are rare and initial T classification was identified as the most important prognostic factor for OS and CR, emphasizing the need for a thorough initial staging of the primary tumor.

Elective neck irradiation in the management of esthesioneuroblastoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: There is no consensus about the optimal management of the neck in clinically node negative esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). The aim of this study is to assess the impact of elective neck irradiation (ENI) in terms of regional disease control and survival. Methods: The study was performed according to the PRISMA guidelines searching on Scopus, PubMed/MEDLINE, and Google Scholar databases. The primary outcome was the regional recurrence rate (RRR), that was reported as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Secondary outcomes were the overall survival (OS), and the distant-metastases free survival (DMFS), that were reported as logarithm of the hazard ratios (logHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: A total of 489 clinically node negative patients were included from 9 retrospective studies. ENI significantly reduced the risk of regional recurrence compared to no treatment. No difference was measured between ENI and observation, according to both OS and DMFS. No stratified analysis could be performed based on Kadish stage and Hyams grade. Conclusions: ENI should be recommended to improve the regional disease control. No advantage was measured in terms of survival or distant metastases with a low quality of evidence. Further prospective studies should be designed to understand if ENI could be avoided in early stage and low-grade tumors.

Isolated same-basin lymph node recurrence after precision lymph node excision for clinically evident melanoma metastasis.

9576 Background: While management of the nodal basin for melanoma has largely moved to observation for microscopic sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis, complete lymph node dissection (CLND) remains the current standard of care for melanoma patients with macroscopic, clinically detectable lymph node metastases (cLN). As CLND is associated with high surgical morbidity, we sought to study whether cLN may be safely managed by excision of only clinically abnormal nodes (precision lymph node dissection, PLND). Currently, a small subset of patients with cLN do not undergo CLND because of frailty or patient preference. We hypothesized that in these selected patients, PLND would provide acceptable regional control rates. Methods: Retrospective chart review was conducted at four academic tertiary care hospitals to identify melanoma patients who underwent PLND for cLN. cLN were defined as palpable or radiographically abnormal nodes. Recurrences were categorized as local/in-transit, same-basin lymph node, or distal lymph node/visceral. The primary outcome was isolated same-basin recurrence after PLND. Results: Twenty-one patients underwent PLND for cLN without synchronous distant metastases (characteristics of primary lesions summarized in Table). Reasons for forgoing CLND included patient preference (n=8), imaging indeterminate for distant metastases (n=2), comorbidities (n=4), loss to follow up (n=1), partial response to checkpoint blockade (n=1), or not reported (n=5). The inguinal node basin was the most common site (n=10), followed by the axillary (n=8) and cervical basins (n=3). A median of 2 nodes were resected at PLND, and 68% of resected nodes were positive for melanoma (median: 1, range: 1-3 nodes). Median follow-up was 23 months from PLND, and recurrence was observed in 28.6% of patients overall. Only 1 patient (4.8%) developed an isolated same-basin recurrence. The 3-year cumulative incidence of isolated same-basin recurrence was 5.3%, while risk of isolated local/in-transit recurrence or distant basin/visceral metastasis were 19.8% and 33.3%, respectively. Complications from PLND were reported in 1 patient (4.8%) and were limited to post-operative seroma and lymphedema. Conclusions: These pilot data suggest that PLND may offer acceptable regional disease control for cLN. Post-operative morbidity from PLND was also low, raising the possibility that PLND may provide adequate regional disease control without the morbidity associated with CLND. These data justify additional, prospective evaluation of PLND in selected patients.[Table: see text]

Economic Burden of Major Diseases in China in 2013

Studies on the economic burden of disease (EBD) can estimate the social benefits of preventing or curing disease. The majority of studies focus on the economic burden of a single or regional disease; however, holistic or national research is rare in China. Estimating the national EBD can provide evidence for policy makers. We used the top-down method to assess the economic burden of 30 types of diseases between urban and rural areas in China. The two-step model was used to evaluate the direct economic burden of disease (DEBD), while the human capital method was used to assess the indirect economic burden of disease (IEBD). The total economic burden of 30 types of diseases in China was between $13.39 and 803.00 billion in 2013. The average total economic burden of disease (TEBD) in cities was $81.39 billion, while diseases in villages accounted for $50.26 billion. The range of direct and indirect EBD was $5.77–494.52 billion, and the range in urban areas was $0.61–20.34 billion. The direct and indirect EBD in rural areas accounted for $5.88–277.76 billion and $0.59–11.39 billion, respectively. There was a large difference between the economic burden of different diseases. The economic burden of urban diseases was more significant than the burden for the rural. The top five most economically burdensome diseases were myocardial infarction coronary artery bypass, acute myocardial infarction, cerebral hemorrhage, acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding and acute appendicitis.