scholarly journals Extinction risk of North American seed plants elevated by climate and land-use change

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 303-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Zhang ◽  
Scott E. Nielsen ◽  
Youhua Chen ◽  
Damien Georges ◽  
Yuchu Qin ◽  
...  
2004 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. Oleson ◽  
G. B. Bonan ◽  
S. Levis ◽  
M. Vertenstein

PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e7333 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Maria Cardoso da Silva ◽  
Alessandro Rapini ◽  
Luis Cláudio F. Barbosa ◽  
Roger R. Torres

In a world where changes in land cover and climate happen faster than ever due to the expansion of human activities, narrowly distributed species are predicted to be the first to go extinct. Studies projecting species extinction in tropical regions consider either habitat loss or climate change as drivers of biodiversity loss but rarely evaluate them together. Here, the contribution of these two factors to the extinction risk of narrowly distributed species (with ranges smaller than 10,000 km2) of seed plants endemic to a fifth-order watershed in Brazil (microendemics) is assessed. We estimated the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) of these watersheds (areas with microendemics) and projected three scenarios of land use up to the year 2100 based on the average annual rates of habitat loss in these watersheds from 2000 to 2014. These scenarios correspond to immediate conservation action (scenario 1), long-term conservation action (scenario 2), and no conservation action (scenario 3). In each scenario, areas with microendemics were classified into four classes: (1) areas with low risk, (2) areas threatened by habitat loss, (3) areas threatened by climate change, and (4) areas threatened by climate change and habitat loss. We found 2,354 microendemic species of seed plants in 776 areas that altogether cover 17.5% of Brazil. Almost 70% (1,597) of these species are projected to be under high extinction risk by the end of the century due to habitat loss, climate change, or both, assuming that these areas will not lose habitat in the future due to land use. However, if habitat loss in these areas continues at the prevailing annual rates, the number of threatened species is projected to increase to more than 85% (2,054). The importance of climate change and habitat loss as drivers of species extinction varies across phytogeographic domains, and this variation requires the adoption of retrospective and prospective conservation strategies that are context specific. We suggest that tropical countries, such as Brazil, should integrate biodiversity conservation and climate change policies (both mitigation and adaptation) to achieve win-win social and environmental gains while halting species extinction.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6581
Author(s):  
Owen P. McKenna ◽  
Samuel R. Kucia ◽  
David M. Mushet ◽  
Michael J. Anteau ◽  
Mark T. Wiltermuth

Prairie-pothole wetlands provide the critical habitat necessary for supporting North American migratory waterfowl populations. However, climate and land-use change threaten the sustainability of these wetland ecosystems. Very few experiments and analyses have been designed to investigate the relative impacts of climate and land-use change drivers, as well as the antagonistic or synergistic interactions among these drivers on ecosystem processes. Prairie-pothole wetland water budgets are highly dependent on atmospheric inputs and especially surface runoff, which makes them especially susceptible to changes in climate and land use. Here, we present the history of prairie-pothole climate and land-use change research and address the following research questions: 1) What are the relative effects of climate and land-use change on the sustainability of prairie-pothole wetlands? and 2) Do the effects of climate and land-use change interact differently under different climatic conditions? To address these research questions, we modeled 25 wetland basins (1949–2018) and measured the response of the lowest wetland in the watershed to wetland drainage and climate variability. We found that during an extremely wet period (1993–2000) wetland drainage decreased the time at which the lowest wetland reached its spill point by four years, resulting in 10 times the amount of water spilling out of the watershed towards local stream networks. By quantifying the relative effects of both climate and land-use drivers on wetland ecosystems our findings can help managers cope with uncertainties about flooding risks and provide insight into how to manage wetlands to restore functionality.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prachi Thatte ◽  
Aditya Joshi ◽  
Srinivas Vaidyanathan ◽  
Erin Landguth ◽  
Uma Ramakrishnan

AbstractHabitat loss is the greatest threat to large carnivores around the world. Maintenance of functional connectivity in fragmented landscapes will be important for long-term species persistence. Here, we merge landscape genetics analyses and spatially-explicit simulations to understand future persistence and extinction of tigers (Panthera tigris) in Central India. Tigers in this landscape are restricted to Protected Areas (PAs) and forest fragments embedded within a mosaic of agricultural fields and human settlements. We examined current population connectivity of tigers across nine reserves (using 116 non-invasively sampled individuals and 12 microsatellites). Genetic data was used to infer resistance-to-movement. Our results suggest that dense human settlements and roads with high traffic are detrimental to tiger movement. We used landscape genetic simulations to model 86 different scenarios that incorporated impacts of future land-use change on inferred population connectivity and extinction. Our results confirm that genetic variability (heterozygosity) will decrease in the future and small and/or isolated PAs will have a high risk of local extinction. The average extinction risk of small PAs reduced by 23-70% on adding a 5 km buffer around exiting boundaries. Unplanned development results in 35% lower heterozygosity and 56% higher average extinction probability for tigers even within protected areas. Increasing tiger numbers in such a scenario decreases extinction probability just by 12 % (from 56% to 44%). Scenarios where habitat connectivity was enhanced and maintained, stepping-stone populations were introduced/maintained, and tiger numbers were increased, led to low overall extinction probability (between 3-21%). Our simulations provide a means to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different land-use change scenarios on connectivity and extinction, linking basic science to land-use change policy and planned infrastructure development.


Author(s):  
Verónica Lango-Reynoso ◽  
Karla Teresa González-Figueroa ◽  
Fabiola Lango-Reynoso ◽  
María del Refugio Castañeda-Chávez ◽  
Jesús Montoya-Mendoza

Objective: This article describes and analyzes the main concepts of coastal ecosystems, these as a result of research concerning land-use change assessments in coastal areas. Design/Methodology/Approach: Scientific articles were searched using keywords in English and Spanish. Articles regarding land-use change assessment in coastal areas were selected, discarding those that although being on coastal zones and geographic and soil identification did not use Geographic Information System (GIS). Results: A GIS is a computer-based tool for evaluating the land-use change in coastal areas by quantifying variations. It is analyzed through GIS and its contributions; highlighting its importance and constant monitoring. Limitations of the study/Implications: This research analyzes national and international scientific information, published from 2007 to 2019, regarding the land-use change in coastal areas quantified with the digital GIS tool. Findings/Conclusions: GIS are useful tools in the identification and quantitative evaluation of changes in land-use in coastal ecosystems; which require constant evaluation due to their high dynamism.


Author(s):  
H. Lilienthal ◽  
A. Brauer ◽  
K. Betteridge ◽  
E. Schnug

Conversion of native vegetation into farmed grassland in the Lake Taupo catchment commenced in the late 1950s. The lake's iconic value is being threatened by the slow decline in lake water quality that has become apparent since the 1970s. Keywords: satellite remote sensing, nitrate leaching, land use change, livestock farming, land management


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