Fitting Observed Demographic Rates with the Multiexponential Model Schedule: An Assessment of Two Estimation Programs

1999 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei Rogers ◽  
James Raymer
Author(s):  
Xavier Lambin

The dependency of mustelid demographic rates on prey abundance has the potential to cause a strong coupling between predator-prey populations. Data on mustelid dynamics show that such strong reciprocal interactions only materialise in some restricted conditions. Bite-size mustelid predators searching for scarce, depleted prey expose themselves to increased risk of predation by larger predators of small mammal that are themselves searching for similar prey species. As voles or muskrats become scarcer, weasels and mink searching for prey over larger areas become increasingly exposed to intra-guild predation, unless they operate in a habitat refuge such as the sub-nivean space. Where larger predators are sufficiently abundant or exert year-round predation pressure on small mustelids, their impact on mustelids may impose biological barrier to dispersal that are sufficient to weaken the coupling between small mustelids and their rodent prey, and thus impose a degree of top down limitation on mustelids.


The Condor ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle D Kittelberger ◽  
Montague H C Neate-Clegg ◽  
Evan R Buechley ◽  
Çağan Hakkı Şekercioğlu

Abstract Tropical mountains are global hotspots for birdlife. However, there is a dearth of baseline avifaunal data along elevational gradients, particularly in Africa, limiting our ability to observe and assess changes over time in tropical montane avian communities. In this study, we undertook a multi-year assessment of understory birds along a 1,750 m elevational gradient (1,430–3,186 m) in an Afrotropical moist evergreen montane forest within Ethiopia’s Bale Mountains. Analyzing 6 years of systematic bird-banding data from 5 sites, we describe the patterns of species richness, abundance, community composition, and demographic rates over space and time. We found bimodal patterns in observed and estimated species richness across the elevational gradient (peaking at 1,430 and 2,388 m), although no sites reached asymptotic species richness throughout the study. Species turnover was high across the gradient, though forested sites at mid-elevations resembled each other in species composition. We found significant variation across sites in bird abundance in some of the dietary and habitat guilds. However, we did not find any significant trends in species richness or guild abundances over time. For the majority of analyzed species, capture rates did not change over time and there were no changes in species’ mean elevations. Population growth rates, recruitment rates, and apparent survival rates averaged 1.02, 0.52, and 0.51 respectively, and there were no elevational patterns in demographic rates. This study establishes a multi-year baseline for Afrotropical birds along an elevational gradient in an under-studied international biodiversity hotspot. These data will be critical in assessing the long-term responses of tropical montane birdlife to climate change and habitat degradation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Clark ◽  
Robert Andrus ◽  
Melaine Aubry-Kientz ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Michal Bogdziewicz ◽  
...  

AbstractIndirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.


2021 ◽  
Vol 102 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert K. Shriver ◽  
Erin Campbell ◽  
Christopher Dailey ◽  
Heather Gaya ◽  
Abby Hill ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (103) ◽  
pp. 20141184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstans Wells ◽  
Barry W. Brook ◽  
Robert C. Lacy ◽  
Greg J. Mutze ◽  
David E. Peacock ◽  
...  

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species.


Polar Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carola Rackete ◽  
Sally Poncet ◽  
Stephanie D. Good ◽  
Richard A. Phillips ◽  
Ken Passfield ◽  
...  

AbstractThe wandering albatross, Diomedea exulans, is a globally threatened species breeding at a number of sites within the Southern Ocean. Across the South Georgia archipelago, there are differences in population trends even at closely located colonies. Between 1999 and 2018 the largest colony, at Bird Island, declined at 3.01% per annum, while in the Bay of Isles, the decline was 1.44% per annum. Using mean demographic rates from a 31-year study at Bird Island and an 11-year study of breeding success at Prion Island in the Bay of Isles in a VORTEX model, we show that differences in breeding success do not fully explain observed differences in population trends. Other potential contributing factors are differential use of foraging areas, with possible knock-on effects on adult body condition, provisioning rate and breeding success, or on bycatch rates of adults or immatures.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Paniw ◽  
Tamora James ◽  
C. Ruth Archer ◽  
Gesa Römer ◽  
Sam Levin ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTApproximately 25 % of mammals are threatened globally with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change1. Persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction), and hence, on population dynamics2. Thus, to quantify which species and places on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how demographic rates respond to climate is needed3. We synthesise information on such responses in terrestrial mammals, where extensive demographic data are available4. Given the importance of assessing the full spectrum of responses, we focus on studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We identify 106 such studies, corresponding to 86 mammal species. We reveal a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognised as most vulnerable to climate change5,6. Moreover, we show that the effects of climate change on mammals will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others. Assessments of population viability under climate change therefore need to account for multiple demographic responses. We advocate to prioritise coordinated actions to assess mammal demography holistically for effective conservation worldwide.


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