Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?

Comprehensive testing schemes, followed by adequate contact tracing and isolation, represent the best public health interventions we can employ to reduce the impact of an ongoing epidemic when no or limited vaccine supplies are available and the implications of a full lockdown are to be avoided. However, the process of tracing can prove feckless for highly-contagious viruses such as SARS-CoV-2. The interview-based approaches often miss contacts and involve significant delays, while digital solutions can suffer from insufficient adoption rates or inadequate usage patterns. Here we present a novel way of modelling different contact tracing strategies, using a generalized multi-site mean-field model, which can naturally assess the impact of manual and digital approaches alike. Our methodology can readily be applied to any compartmental formulation, thus enabling the study of more complex pathogen dynamics. We use this technique to simulate a newly-defined epidemiological model, SEIR-T, and show that, given the right conditions, tracing in a COVID-19 epidemic can be effective even when digital uptakes are sub-optimal or interviewers miss a fair proportion of the contacts.

Post-weaning diarrhea in pigs weaned without medicinal zinc: risk factors, pathogen dynamics, and association to growth rate

Background Porcine post-weaning diarrhea (PWD) has reemerged as an important topic in pig production, as common control strategies based on prophylactic use of antimicrobials and zinc oxide have been deemed unsustainable. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cumulative incidence of porcine post-weaning diarrhea with different etiologies in production systems weaning without zinc oxide and prophylactic antimicrobials, to assess risk factors for post-weaning diarrhea, and to estimate the impact of post-weaning diarrhea on growth rate. A cohort study was conducted at two commercial indoor producers weaning without medicinal zinc oxide and prophylactic antimicrobials. Results Piglets were included at birth (n = 300) and 272 survived until weaning. After insertion to the nursery units, the piglets were clinically examined every day for 14 days, and rectal swabs were collected and analyzed for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and rotavirus A. The cumulative incidences of PWD the first 14 days after insertion to the nursery units were 41.8% (CI 33.6, 50.4) and 51.1% (CI 42.3, 60.0) at the two producers, respectively. We found a low incidence of cases associated to ETEC, and detected a substantial proportion of cases associated to rotavirus. We observed a biphasic pattern in the assumed etiology with rotavirus occurring first, and then a shift towards cases associated to ETEC/non-ETEC hemolytic E. coli. Being offspring of older sows was a protective factor for the development of PWD (Hazard ratio = 0.88 [CI 0.78, 0.99] per unit increase in parity of the dam). Low birth weight reduced the post-weaning growth rate (− 5.2 g/day [CI − 7.5, − 2.9] per 100 g decrease in birthweight) and increased the hazard of developing PWD (Hazard ratio for birthweight below 1100 g: 2.30 [CI 1.41–3.74]). The combined effect of having diarrhea for 2 days or more and receiving antimicrobial treatment was associated with an increased average daily weight gain. Conclusions This study suggests novel insights regarding pathogen dynamics and risk factors for PWD in productions not using prophylactic antimicrobials and medicinal zinc. The findings may have important implications for both antimicrobial usage and prevention strategies.

Infection dynamics in ecosystems: on the interaction between red and grey squirrels, pox virus, pine martens and trees

Ecological and epidemiological processes and interactions influence each other, positively and negatively, directly and indirectly. The invasion potential of pathogens is influenced by the ecosystem context of their host species’ populations. This extends to the capacity of (multiple) host species to maintain their (common) pathogen and the way pathogen dynamics are influenced by changes in ecosystem composition. This paper exemplifies these interactions and consequences in a study of red and grey squirrel dynamics in the UK. Differences and changes in background habitat and trophic levels above and below the squirrel species lead to different dynamic behaviour in many subtle ways. The range of outcomes of the different interactions shows that one has to be careful when drawing conclusions about the mechanisms and processes involved in explaining observed phenomena concerning pathogens in their natural environment. The dynamic behaviour also shows that planning interventions, for example for conservation purposes, benefits from understanding the complexity of interactions beyond the particular pathogen and its threatened host species.

Land-use change and rodent-borne diseases: hazards on the shared socioeconomic pathways

Land-use change has a direct impact on species survival and reproduction, altering their spatio-temporal distributions. It acts as a selective force that favours the abundance and diversity of reservoir hosts and affects host–pathogen dynamics and prevalence. This has led to land-use change being a significant driver of infectious diseases emergence. Here, we predict the presence of rodent taxa and map the zoonotic hazard (potential sources of harm) from rodent-borne diseases in the short and long term (2025 and 2050). The study considers three different land-use scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways narratives (SSPs): sustainable (SSP1-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6), fossil-fuelled development (SSP5-RCP 8.5) and deepening inequality (SSP4-RCP 6.0). We found that cropland expansion into forest and pasture may increase zoonotic hazards in areas with high rodent-species diversity. Nevertheless, a future sustainable scenario may not always reduce hazards. All scenarios presented high heterogeneity in zoonotic hazard, with high-income countries having the lowest hazard range. The SSPs narratives suggest that opening borders and reducing cropland expansion are critical to mitigate current and future zoonotic hazards globally, particularly in middle- and low-income economies. Our study advances previous efforts to anticipate the emergence of zoonotic diseases by integrating past, present and future information to guide surveillance and mitigation of zoonotic hazards at the regional and local scale. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.

Viral Sequences Recovered From Puma Tooth DNA Reconstruct Statewide Viral Phylogenies

Monitoring pathogens in wildlife populations is imperative for effective management, and for identifying locations for pathogen spillover among wildlife, domestic species and humans. Wildlife pathogen surveillance is challenging, however, as sampling often requires the capture of a significant proportion of the population to understand host pathogen dynamics. To address this challenge, we assessed the ability to use hunter-collected teeth from puma across Colorado to recover genetic data of two feline retroviruses, feline foamy virus (FFV) and feline immunodeficiency virus (FIVpco) and show they can be utilized for this purpose. Comparative phylogenetic analyses of FIVpco and FFV from tooth and blood samples to previous analyses conducted with blood samples collected over a nine-year period from two distinct areas was undertaken highlighting the value of tooth derived samples. We found less FIVpco phylogeographic structuring than observed from sampling only two regions and that FFV data confirmed previous findings of endemic infection, minimal geographic structuring, and supported frequent cross-species transmission from domestic cats to pumas. Viral analysis conducted using intentionally collected blood samples required extensive financial, capture and sampling efforts. This analysis illustrates that viral genomic data can be cost effectively obtained using tooth samples incidentally-collected from hunter harvested pumas, taking advantage of samples collected for morphological age identification. This technique should be considered as an opportunistic method to provide broad geographic sampling to define viral dynamics more accurately in wildlife.

Antibiotics drive expansion of rare pathogens in a chronic infection microbiome model

Chronic (long-lasting) infections are globally a major and rising cause of morbidity and mortality. Unlike typical acute infections, chronic infections are ecologically diverse, characterized by the presence of a polymicrobial mix of opportunistic pathogens and human-associated commensals. To address the challenge of chronic infection microbiomes, we focus on a particularly well-characterized disease, cystic fibrosis (CF), where polymicrobial lung infections persist for decades despite frequent exposure to antibiotics. Epidemiological analyses point to conflicting results on the benefits of antibiotic treatment, and are confounded by the dependency of antibiotic exposures on prior pathogen presence, limiting their ability to draw causal inferences on the relationships between antibiotic exposure and pathogen dynamics. To address this limitation, we develop a synthetic infection microbiome model, and benchmark on clinical data. We show that, in the absence of antibiotics, the microbiome structure in a synthetic sputum medium is highly repeatable and dominated by oral commensals. In contrast, challenge with physiologically relevant antibiotic doses leads to substantial community perturbation characterized by multiple alternate pathogen-dominant states and enrichment of drug-resistant species. These results provide evidence that antibiotics can drive the expansion (via competitive release) of previously rare opportunistic pathogens and offer a path towards microbiome-informed conditional treatment strategies.

Sexual conflict drives micro- and macroevolution of sexual dimorphism in immunity

Background Sexual dimorphism in immunity is believed to reflect sex differences in reproductive strategies and trade-offs between competing life history demands. Sexual selection can have major effects on mating rates and sex-specific costs of mating and may thereby influence sex differences in immunity as well as associated host–pathogen dynamics. Yet, experimental evidence linking the mating system to evolved sexual dimorphism in immunity are scarce and the direct effects of mating rate on immunity are not well established. Here, we use transcriptomic analyses, experimental evolution and phylogenetic comparative methods to study the association between the mating system and sexual dimorphism in immunity in seed beetles, where mating causes internal injuries in females. Results We demonstrate that female phenoloxidase (PO) activity, involved in wound healing and defence against parasitic infections, is elevated relative to males. This difference is accompanied by concomitant sex differences in the expression of genes in the prophenoloxidase activating cascade. We document substantial phenotypic plasticity in female PO activity in response to mating and show that experimental evolution under enforced monogamy (resulting in low remating rates and reduced sexual conflict relative to natural polygamy) rapidly decreases female (but not male) PO activity. Moreover, monogamous females had evolved increased tolerance to bacterial infection unrelated to mating, implying that female responses to costly mating may trade off with other aspects of immune defence, an hypothesis which broadly accords with the documented sex differences in gene expression. Finally, female (but not male) PO activity shows correlated evolution with the perceived harmfulness of male genitalia across 12 species of seed beetles, suggesting that sexual conflict has a significant influence on sexual dimorphisms in immunity in this group of insects. Conclusions Our study provides insights into the links between sexual conflict and sexual dimorphism in immunity and suggests that selection pressures moulded by mating interactions can lead to a sex-specific mosaic of immune responses with important implications for host–pathogen dynamics in sexually reproducing organisms.