scholarly journals High‐Stakes Decision‐Making Within Complex Social Environments: A Computational Model of Belief Systems in the Arab Spring

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Dornschneider
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Social Environments ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
The Arab Spring

Tracing Reasoning Processes

2021 ◽  
pp. 91-103
Author(s):  
Stephanie Dornschneider
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Textual Analysis ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Boolean Circuits ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
The Arab Spring

This chapter presents the computational model developed to analyze the data constructed by the textual analysis. The model formalizes belief systems as Boolean circuits to systematically trace reasoning processes that connect various types of beliefs to decisions about participating in the Arab Spring (belief → belief → . . . → decision). The model permits the systematic analysis of the data to identify key beliefs and inferences related to decisions. The author first discusses how this model contributes to existing studies of belief systems and then describes the model in detail. The chapter thus sets the stage for the next chapter, which presents the results.

Exit, Resistance, Loyalty: Military Behavior during Unrest in Authoritarian Regimes

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holger Albrecht ◽  
Dorothy Ohl
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Moving Target ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Coup D'etat ◽  
Civil Military Relations ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Military

A few years into the most recent wave of popular uprisings—the Arab Spring—studying regime trajectories in countries such as Syria, Egypt, and Yemen still seems like shooting at a moving target. Yet what has not escaped notice is the central role military actors have played during these uprisings. We describe how soldiers have three options when ordered to suppress mass unrest. They mayexitthe regime by remaining in the barracks or going into exile,resistby fighting for the challenger or initiating a coup d’état, or remainloyaland use force to defend the regime. We argue that existing accounts of civil-military relations are ill equipped to explain the diverse patterns in exit, resistance, and loyalty during unrest because they often ignore the effects of military hierarchy. Disaggregating the military and parsing the interests and constraints of different agents in that apparatus is crucial for explaining military cohesion during such crises. Drawing on extensive fieldwork we apply our principal-agent framework to explain varying degrees and types of military cohesion in three Arab Spring cases: Bahrain, Yemen, and Syria. Studying military hierarchy elucidates decision-making within authoritarian regimes amid mass mobilization and allows us to better explain regime re-stabilization, civil war onset, or swift regime change in the wake of domestic unrest.

scholarly journals Iran’s Syria Strategy: The Evolution of Deterrence

2020 ◽  
pp. 231-260
Author(s):  
Hassan Ahmadian ◽  
Payam Mohseni
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Strategy ◽  
War Effort ◽  
Internationalization Strategy ◽  
Direct Inter ◽  
The Arab Spring

AbstractIran has been a critical player in the Syrian war since 2011, crafting a complex foreign policy and military strategy to preserve its Syrian ally. What have been the drivers of Iranian decision-making in this conflict? And how has Iranian strategy evolved over the course of the war? This chapter argues that the logic of deterrence has been fundamental not just for shaping the contours of Iran–Syria relations since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, but also for determining the overall trajectory of Iranian strategy in the Syrian war. The authors outline Iran’s decision-making calculus and divide the country’s strategy on Syria after the Arab Spring into four primary phases: (1) a ‘Basij’ strategy to establish local militias in Syria; (2) a regionalization strategy to incorporate transnational fighters and militias in the war effort; (3) an internationalization strategy to incorporate Russia and balance the United States; and (4) a post-ISIS deterrence strategy to balance against the United States, Turkey and Israel. Iran’s Syria strategy progressively escalated in response to the possible defeat of its ally and the deterioration of its forward deterrence capacities against the United States and Israel. Today, the potential for direct inter-state conflict is rising as proxy warfare declines and Iran attempts to maintain the credibility of its forward deterrence.

An Extraordinary Experience

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Stephanie Dornschneider
Keyword(s):  
Arab Spring ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Contentious Politics ◽  
The Political ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Main Argument ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Psychology Literature ◽  
The Arab Spring

This chapter introduces the main research puzzle and the analytical framework of the book. To determine what motivated people to mobilize for the Arab Spring, the analysis applies belief systems and traces the reasoning processes of protesters and non-protesters. The chapter discusses what this application adds to the psychology literature on reasoning as well as the political science literature on contentious politics. The chapter outlines the main argument presented by the analysis—that mobilization for the uprisings was hot, meaning people decided to join the Arab Spring based on reasoning processes including emotions, whereas non-participation was cool, meaning people decided to refrain from joining the protests based on reasoning processes not including emotions.

Unhappy Development: Dissatisfaction with Life in the Wake of the Arab Spring

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efstratia Arampatzi ◽  
Martijn Burger ◽  
Elena Ianchovichina ◽  
Tina Röhricht ◽  
Ruut Veenhoven
Keyword(s):  
Arab Spring ◽  
The Arab Spring

Cracking national integration after the events (the Arab Spring) and its impact On regional stability

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Muhannad Al Janabi Al Janabi
Keyword(s):  
Arab Spring ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Prominent Feature ◽  
Regional Stability ◽  
National Integration ◽  
Arab Region ◽  
Political Media ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Arab Spring

Since late 2010 and early 2011, the Arab region has witnessed mass protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Bahrain and other countries that have been referred to in the political, media and other literature as the Arab Spring. These movements have had a profound effect on the stability of the regimes Which took place against it, as leaders took off and contributed to radical reforms in party structures and public freedoms and the transfer of power, but it also contributed to the occurrence of many countries in an internal spiral, which led to the erosion of the state from the inside until it became a prominent feature of the Arab) as is the case in Syria, Libya, Yemen and Iraq.

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