Potential Consequences of Post‐Brexit Trade Barriers for Earnings Inequality in the UK

We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit scenario, although it will still cost the UK economy roughly 12.5 percentage points and 10 percentage points of cumulative GDP growth by 2030, respectively. We find much larger negative effects than most existing studies that use macroeconometric modelling to assess the effects of Brexit. This is due to two reasons. First, we use an improved tariff version of the macroeconometric model NiGEM, which enables us better to assess the negative impact of cost-push inflation resulting from imposed trade barriers. Second, we estimate a new productivity model for the UK, which allows us to gauge adequately the negative UK-specific effects on productivity caused by Brexit.

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Commentary: A European Commission Perspective on Manufactures Liberalization

Global Economy Journal ◽

10.2202/1524-5861.1143 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 5 (4) ◽

pp. 1850056

Author(s):

Nikolaos Zaimis

Keyword(s):

International Trade ◽

European Commission ◽

Dispute Settlement ◽

Trade Barriers ◽

Legal Practice ◽

Subsidy Policy ◽

Wto Dispute Settlement ◽

Directorate General ◽

The Uk

A commentary on Alan V. Deardorff and Robert M. Stern, “Issues of Manufactures Liberalization and Administered Protection.” Nikolaos Zaimis heads the Trade Section of the European Commission Delegation in Washington and follows closely developments in EU-US relations. He previously held the position of Deputy Head of the WTO Dispute Settlement and Trade Barriers Unit at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade. Before joining the European Commission, he worked for a number of years in private legal practice focusing on EC and international trade issues. He joined the Commission (DG Trade) in 1995 and initially worked in the area of anti-subsidy policy. He then became Head of the Section dealing with the investigation of trade barriers in third countries. Zaimis studied law in Greece and the UK and is a Member of the Athens Bar.

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Uncertainty will moderate the UK sterling rally

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db247230 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Financial Markets ◽

Financial Market ◽

Prime Minister ◽

Trade Barriers ◽

Monthly Data ◽

Content Type ◽

The Uk ◽

Global Growth ◽

The Eu

Subject Influence of Brexit on financial markets. Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson's letter to the EU requesting another Brexit delay (although he still hopes to leave by October 31) has injected more uncertainty into financial market trading. Investors see the Brexit outcomes as binary: either a chaotic departure, triggering a dramatic sell-off in UK assets, or an orderly withdrawal, triggering a rally. Impacts The FTSE 100 index has fallen 7% since July 3 and UK equities are likely to remain unpopular as much uncertainty will persist post-Brexit. Monthly data suggest that UK GDP is on track to avoid recession in the July-September quarter, but it will struggle to stay on this track. Sterling will fall if there is a no-deal exit, offsetting trade barriers, but exporters will see little benefit amid weak global growth.

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