Measuring the permanent costs of Brexit

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. R46-R55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Erken ◽  
Raphie Hayat ◽  
Carlijn Prins ◽  
Marijn Heijmerikx ◽  
Inge de Vreede
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Specific Effects ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Macroeconometric Model ◽  
The Uk

We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit scenario, although it will still cost the UK economy roughly 12.5 percentage points and 10 percentage points of cumulative GDP growth by 2030, respectively. We find much larger negative effects than most existing studies that use macroeconometric modelling to assess the effects of Brexit. This is due to two reasons. First, we use an improved tariff version of the macroeconometric model NiGEM, which enables us better to assess the negative impact of cost-push inflation resulting from imposed trade barriers. Second, we estimate a new productivity model for the UK, which allows us to gauge adequately the negative UK-specific effects on productivity caused by Brexit.

scholarly journals What will ‘taking back control’ mean for social policy in the UK? Brexit, public services and social rights

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 509-517
Author(s):  
Kitty Stewart ◽  
Kerris Cooper ◽  
Isabel Shutes
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Social Rights ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Take Back ◽  
The Uk

While social policy falls predominantly under national rather than European Union (EU) jurisdiction, there are nonetheless multiple ways in which social policy and social outcomes in EU member states have been affected by EU membership. This paper draws on existing evidence and analysis to review the consequences for UK social policy of the decision to leave the EU. We focus predominantly on the implications of the British government’s pledge to ‘take back control’ of money, borders and laws. Our conclusion is that Brexit is likely to have negative effects on the quality of public services and, for some groups in particular, social rights, and that these effects are likely to be greater the more distant are the future trading and wider relationships between the UK and the EU27.

scholarly journals Institutional barriers to participation in EU framework programs: contrasting the Swiss and UK cases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Cavallaro ◽  
Benedetto Lepori
Keyword(s):  
Research Collaboration ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Institutional Barriers ◽  
Horizon 2020 ◽  
Economic Relationships ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Political Uncertainties ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe aim of this study was to examine how institutional barriers arising from policy decisions influence the level of participation of third-party countries in European Framework Programs (EU-FPs). To achieve this, we contrasted the effect of EU funding restrictions following Switzerland’s 2014 reclassification as a “third country” in Horizon 2020, and the political uncertainties resulting from the 2016 Brexit vote in the United Kingdom (UK). We compared the participation patterns of Swiss and UK higher education institutions (HEIs) with control groups of similar European HEIs over time and, complementarily, analyzed changes in the participation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Our results showed that the Brexit-induced uncertainty had stronger negative effects than the Swiss reclassification, which was, however, characterized by effective EU funding restrictions. In both cases, the negative impact of institutional barriers was stronger for the more central HEIs in EU-FP networks. These results suggest that the effect of institutional barriers is closely linked to consortium building mechanisms, where research collaboration requires stability and projection over the long term. Regarding individual grants, the impact was stronger for Marie Skłodowska-Curie actions than for European Research Council grants, suggesting that a researcher’s mobility is affected by political uncertainties. Finally, in the UK case, we observed a steep decrease in the participation of SMEs. Based on these results, we suggest that a stable framework of participation and a clear ruling on relationships with the EU for what concerns people’s mobility and economic relationships are key to fostering the participation of third-party countries.

The implications of the Boskin Report

1998 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 89-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Oulton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
True Rate ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Price Quotes

The Boskin Commission has claimed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently overestimating the true rate of inflation by 1.1 percentage points per annum. This article assesses the evidence for this conclusion and its implications for the measurement of past and future US economic performance. If Boskin is right, US GDP growth in the period 1970 to 1996 has been underestimated by about 0.9 per cent per annum. Some at least of the methodological changes recommended by Boskin will probably be adopted. As a result US GDP growth will appear to rise, eventually by as much as 0.5 per cent per annum, even though no genuine improvement in economic performance has actually occurred. Boskin has implications for the UK too. Recent evidence suggests that use of a formula recommended by Boskin for averaging price quotes together can by itself reduce UK inflation by 0.4 per cent per annum.

scholarly journals Assessing the potential impact on health of the UK's future relationship agreement with the EU: analysis of the negotiating positions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Fahy ◽  
Tamara Hervey ◽  
Mark Dayan ◽  
Mark Flear ◽  
Mike Galsworthy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Research Collaboration ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Joint Procurement ◽  
Health And Social Care ◽  
Capital Financing ◽  
Batch Testing ◽  
The Uk

Abstract While policy attention is understandably diverted to COVID-19, the end of the UK's post-Brexit ‘transition period’ remains 31 December 2020. All forms of future EU−UK relationship are worse for health than EU membership, but analysis of the negotiating texts shows some forms are better than others. The likely outcomes involve major negative effects for NHS staffing, funding for health and social care, and capital financing for the NHS; and for UK global leadership and influence. We expect minor negative effects for cross border healthcare (except in Northern Ireland); research collaboration; and data sharing, such as the Early Warning and Response System for health threats. Despite political narratives, the legal texts show that the UK seeks de facto continuity in selected key areas for pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and equipment [including personal protective equipment (PPE)], especially clinical trials, pharmacovigilance, and batch-testing. The UK will be excluded from economies of scale of EU membership, e.g. joint procurement programmes as used recently for PPE. Above all, there is a major risk of reaching an agreement with significant adverse effects for health, without meaningful oversight by or input from the UK Parliament, or other health policy stakeholders.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 34-52
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Uk

GDP growth in 2006 is estimated to have been 2.8 per cent per annum. This rate of growth is above our estimates of the trend rate of growth in the UK. On a quarterly basis the latest estimates suggest that growth above the trend rate occurred in the first half of 2006, with both quarters' growth rates at 0.8 per cent (see figure 1). The second half of the year saw quarterly growth rates at around the trend rate of 0.6 to 0.7 per cent. NIESR's estimate of monthly GDP implied that quarterly growth in the first quarter of this year was somewhat lower at 0.5 per cent because of a weak January. After this poor quarterly performance we expect an increase in economic growth due to household and government demand. Overall, this suggests a downward revision to our January forecast of 0.1 percentage points, although this is of little economic importance. We continue to expect the economy to moderate over the next three years. Our forecast is for GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent per annum this year, slowing to 2.6 and 2.4 per cent per annum in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

Oil, Rates and Inflation

2005 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
E. Yasin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Percentage Points

Currency inflow in Russia from raw materials exports allows taking into account high business activity to assimilate growing money supply transforming it into economic growth. Fall in business activity as a result of pressure on business led to saturation of demand for money. This considerably increases the danger of inflation growth and requires sterilization of excess money supply including the usage of the Stabilization Fund. According to the author's estimates, corresponding losses in GDP growth will equal 1-2 percentage points per year.

Commissioning brownstock washing controls for an evaporator limited mill

TAPPI Journal ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 459-464
Author(s):  
RICARDO SANTOS ◽  
PETER HART
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Black Liquor ◽  
Pulp Mill ◽  
Control Program ◽  
Separation Point ◽  
Water Control ◽  
Oxygen Delignification ◽  
Percentage Points

An automated shower water control system has been implemented to reduce the volume and variability of weak black liquor being sent from the pulp mill to the evaporators. The washing controls attempt to balance the need for consistent and low soda carryover to the bleach plant with consistently high weak black liquor solids being sent to the evaporators. The washer controls were implemented on two bleachable grade hardwood lines (one with oxygen delignification, one without oxygen delignification) and one pine line. Implementation of the control program resulted in an increase in black liquor solids of 0.6 percentage points for the hardwood lines. Significant foam reduction was realized on the pine line since the pine black liquor solids were able to be consistently maintained just below the soap separation point. Low black liquor solids excursions to the evaporators were eliminated. Bleach plant carryover was stabilized and no negative impact on chemical consumption was noticed when controlling weak black liquor solids to recovery.

ANALYSIS OF MEASURES TO REDUCE ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DAMAGE FROM AUTOMOBILE TRANSPORT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.N. Kurdyukov ◽  
◽  
T.V. Lebedeva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Agriculture Education

The article considers common classifications of measures to reduce environmentaleconomic damage from motor vehicles. Classification from the point of view of control impact is proposed, which allows to take into account relations between the state and citizens in the field of reduction of negative impact of motor vehicles on the environment. The analysis of the classification made it possible to identify areas of activity for improving the efficiency of management impacts, taking into account the incentives of citizens to comply with the requirements of the legislation and to create conditions for their exceeding. Increasing the efficiency of resource allocation in the Territory will allow the released funds to be allocated to the development of industry, agriculture, education and science.

An Expert Ranked List of Pro-nature Conservation Behaviours for Public Use

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lea Barbett ◽  
Edward Stupple ◽  
Michael Sweet ◽  
Miles Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Nature Conservation ◽  
General Population ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Short Paper ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Ranked List

The planet is facing an anthropogenic mass extinction of wildlife, which will have a grave impact on the environment and humans. Widespread human action is needed to minimize the negative impact of humans on biodiversity and support the restoration of wildlife. In order to find effective ways to promote pro-nature conservation behaviours to the general population, there is a need to provide a list of behaviours which will have worthwhile ecological impact and are worth encouraging. In a novel collaboration between psychologists and ecologists, 70 experts from practical and academic conservation backgrounds were asked to review and rate 48 conservation related behaviours. According to their judgement, this short paper presents a ranked list of pro-nature conservation behaviours for the public in the UK and similar landscapes. This includes behaviours people can engage in in their homes, their gardens, on their land, and in their roles as citizens.

Problems of Development of Small and Medium Russian Towns

2019 ◽  
pp. 24-29
Author(s):  
V V. Kafidov ◽  
V. N. Filippov ◽  
I. P. Filippova
Keyword(s):  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Physical Space ◽  
Living Environment ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Fundamental Factor ◽  
New Buildings

The presented study addresses the problems of development of small and medium towns in Russia. Aim. The study aims to examine a town as a socio-economic environment where its residents exist and as the fundamental factor for the development of society.Tasks. The authors identify key problems in the development of small and medium Russian towns, which interferes with the historical appearance and has a negative impact on the living environment.Methods. Problems in the development of small and medium towns in Russia are examined using theoretical methods: systematic approach, statistical analysis, social and philosophical analysis.Results. The study identifies the main negative effects of the existing model of development of small and medium Russian towns, such as destruction of their historical and cultural appearance, distortion of the overall architectural motif, increased load on communications, and congestion of the transport infrastructure.Conclusions. At the current stage, efficient development of small and medium towns in Russia is impossible within the framework of the existing infill development. This chaotic process cannot be stopped without a new conceptual approach and changes in the legislative and normative framework of urban development. The only factor that determines the boundaries of the existing approach to urban development is the lack of physical space for new buildings in urban areas. The authors formulate proposals that would help to solve the problems of development of small and medium towns in Russia. 

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