scholarly journals Open-Economy Inflation- Forecast Targeting

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Leitemo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Rational Expectations Equilibrium ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Exchange Rate Variability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
One Year

Abstract We study simple inflation-forecast targeting in an open-economy setting. Simple inflation-forecast targeting implies setting an interest rate which, if kept unchanged throughout the forecast-targeting horizon, produces a conditional inflation forecast equal to the inflation target at the end of the horizon.We find that the optimal forecast-targeting horizon is relatively short (one year). A longer horizon does not consistently contribute to improved output stability, indeed it increases exchange rate variability and traded sector variability. The targeting procedure is substantially inferior to the optimal pre-commitment policy. Moreover, the targeting procedure does not necessarily determine the rational-expectations equilibrium and is subject to time inconsistency.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

scholarly journals Financial Risk and Adoption of Public-Private Partnerships in Kenyan Public Universities

2020 ◽  
pp. 32-41
Author(s):  
Francis Mukatia Asakania ◽  
Gregory S. Namusonge ◽  
Maurice Sakwa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Public Universities ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
The Public ◽  
Exchange Rate Variability ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Number Of Factors

Employment of public-private partnerships as a way of delivery of public utilities has been on the rise in the recent past. This has been driven by a number of factors, key among them being the ability of the public entity to transfer financial risk to private sector players who are better placed to mitigate such risks. The study purposed to assess the effect of financial risk on adoption of public-private partnerships in Kenyan public universities. The specific study objectives were to evaluate the influence of interest rate variability, revenue streams variability and exchange rate variability on adoption of public-private partnerships. The study employed a descriptive research design while targeting a population of 223 comprising of purposively selected employees from nine public universities. A sample size of 143 was used from whom data was collected using structured questionnaire. Data analysis employed use of both descriptive and inferential statistics. The results obtained show that interest rate variability, revenue stream variability and exchange rate variability have a statistically significant influence on adoption of public-private partnerships. On the basis of the study findings it was concluded that financial risk transfer had a significant positive influence on adoption of public-private partnerships in Kenyan public universities. It is therefore recommended that Kenyan public universities should thoroughly evaluate financial risk involved in any project before entering into public-private partnership arrangement in order to enhance value for money.

scholarly journals PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
M. Maulana Al Arif ◽  
Achmad Tohari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41

scholarly journals Understanding Business Cycle Fluctuations in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Gulzar Khan ◽  
Ather Maqsood Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Notwithstanding the level of improvement in understanding the complexities of an economy, it is now well accepted that the ultimate incidence of various policy interventions leads to varied outcomes in terms of magnitude and persistence depending upon the structure of the economy. The objective of the present study is to disentangle the relative contributions of various exogenous and domestic shocks that contribute to business cycle fluctuations in Pakistan. The study is based on the New-Keynesian Open economy model, which is an extended version of (Gali & Monacili 2005). Keating’s two-step approach (1990, 2000) is employed to capture the dynamic behaviour of the variables of interest. Impulse response functions, along with forecast error variance decomposition analyses, are used to gain useful insights into the understanding of the transmission mechanism of policy and non-policy shocks. It is observed that fiscal policy does matter, at least in the short-run. The interest rate shock leads to the exchange rate appreciation thereby confirming the exchange rate puzzle. In response to adverse supply shocks, the Monetary Authority responds with a monetary contraction that prolongs the recessionary periods. Furthermore, it has a limited power to control inflation as inflation in Pakistan stems from supply-side factors as well as fiscal dominance. JEL Classification: C32, E52, E62, F41 Keywords: Open Economy, New Keynesian Model, Rational Expectations, Exchange Rate Puzzle

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI, JUB, SBI, SERTA CADANGAN DEVISA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TAHUN 2017-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-72
Author(s):  
Duwik Tri Utami ◽  
Fitrah Sari Islami
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Indonesia's economy refers to an open economy. In conducting international trade, countries must compare their currencies with currencies belonging to other countries. Where, the United States currency, namely the dollar, is still the standard of world exchange rates and is used in international transactions. The effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the rupiah with the dollar is the occurrence of depreciation or appreciation which will affect Indonesia's economic activities. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of inflation, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves on the rupiah exchange rate in the short and long term. The variables that are thought to be able to influence changes in the rupiah exchange rate are the inflation rate, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves. This research was conducted during January 2017 to December 2020, using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The result is a long-term and short-term relationship. In the short term, foreign exchange reserves and the money supply (M2) significantly affect the exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the long term, the SBI interest rate, money supply (M2), and foreign exchange reserves significantly affect the exchange rate.

scholarly journals ANATOMIZING INCOMPLETE-MARKETS SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES: POLICY TRADE-OFFS AND EQUILIBRIUM DETERMINACY

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 1022-1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Alonso-Carrera ◽  
Timothy Kam
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Incomplete Markets ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Complete Markets ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Equilibrium Market

We propose a simple incomplete-markets small-open-economy model that is amenable to analytical dissection of its policy-relevant mechanisms. In contrast to its complete-markets limit, the equilibrium real exchange rate is irreducible from the incomplete-markets equilibrium. Market incompleteness exacerbates the domestic-inflation and output-gap monetary-policy trade-off in two ways: its steepness and its resulting endogenous cost-push to the trade-off. The latter depends on an equilibrium combination of structural shocks and on agents' beliefs of future events. Thus, in comparison to its complete-markets and closed-economy limits, standard Taylor-type rules are less capable of inducing determinate rational expectations equilibrium in our environment. Despite the larger policy trade-off under incomplete markets, simple policies that also respond to exchange-rate growth are able to manage expectations that drive the endogenous cost-push term. However, policies that respond directly to expectations may turn out to exacerbate the cost-push trade-off further, and thus, to be more likely to fuel self-fulfilling multiple or unstable equilibria.

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