An Investigation of the Short-Run and Long-Run Stock Returns Surrounding Insurer Rating Changes

2016 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon Chen ◽  
Jennifer J. Gaver ◽  
Steven W. Pottier
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rating Changes ◽  
Insurer Rating

Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns: a quantile cointegration approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Quineche
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
The United States ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Left Tail ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Excess Stock Returns ◽  
Aggregate Wealth ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
The Right

Abstract This paper empirically examines the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and labor income (i.e., cay) in the United States through the lens of a quantile cointegration approach. The advantage of using this approach is that it allows for a nonlinear relationship between these variables depending on the level of consumption. We estimate the coefficients using a Phillips–Hansen type fully modified quantile estimator to correct for the presence of endogeneity in the cointegrating relationship. To test for the null of cointegration at each quantile, we apply a quantile CUSUM test. Results show that: (i) consumption is more sensitive to changes in labor income than to changes in asset wealth for the entire distribution of consumption, (ii) the elasticity of consumption with respect to labor income (asset wealth) is larger at the right (left) tail of the consumption distribution than at the left (right) tail, (iii) the series are cointegrated around the median, but not in the tails of the distribution of consumption, (iv) using the estimated cay obtained for the right (left) tail of the distribution of consumption improves the long-run (short-run) forecast ability on real excess stock returns over a risk-free rate.

The Impact of Economic Sentiment, Consumer, Producer and Investor's Confidence Indices on Stock Returns of the Listed Companies in FTSE-20 in Greece

2018 ◽  
pp. 162-209
Author(s):  
Constantine Cantzos ◽  
Petros Kalantonis ◽  
Aristidis Papagrigoriou ◽  
Stefanos Theotokas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Behavioral Indicators ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the relationship between stock returns of companies listed in the FTSE-20 on the Athens Exchange and behavioral indicators. The research is based on the behavioral APT model, which examines stock returns' risk factors through the involvement of macroeconomic variables and behavioral indicators. The data is the closing price of 17 shares listed in the FTSE-20 index, a number of macroeconomic variables, and a series of behavioral indicators for the period of January 2001-December 2014. Regressions were conducted with dependent variable stock returns of a portfolio invested equally in these 17 stocks. In addition, the research tests the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium and causality. The change in the industrial production index along with the risk premium have a positive and significant impact on the portfolio returns. Johansen's test showed that there is a long-run equilibrium between stock returns, macroeconomic variables, and behavioral indicators. The VECM and VAR models showed that there is not long and short-run causality, not even Granger causality. No similar research has been conducted in Greece, thus it fills a literature gap.

COMPARING THE IMPACTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ACROSS STOCK MARKETS

2015 ◽  
Vol 77 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siok Kun Sek ◽  
Zhan Jian Ng ◽  
Wai Mun Har
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

We conduct empirical analyses on comparing the spillover effects of oil price shocks on the volatility of stock returns between oil importing and oil exporting countries. In particular, we seek to study how the nature of oil price shocks differs due to the oil dependency factor and how the stock markets react to such shocks. Applying the multivariate GARCH-BEKK(1,1) model, our results detect spillover effects between crude oil price and stock returns for all countries. The short run persistencies of shocks are smaller but the persistencies of shocks are very high in the long run. The results hold for both groups of countries. The results imply larger spillover effect from oil price shock into stock market in the oil importing countries.

Impact of Share Splits on Stock Returns: Evidences from India

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 432-441
Author(s):  
Bilal Ahmad Pandow ◽  
Khurshid Ahmad Butt
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Sign Test ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact

This article empirically examines the impact of stock splits on the price movements and returns of the scrips listed on the stock market in India. The study makes use of the standard event study methodology to measure the significance of unusual yield associated with the event. To calculate the returns, the study employs market model. Also, it uses parametric tests, such as t-statistic, and non-parametric test, such as Corrado Rank Test, Generalized Rank Test and Sign Test, to check the significance and robustness of abnormal return (AR), average AR, and cumulative average AR. Indisputably, the results are somewhat different from the evidences found in developed markets. Mostly in these countries, the event witnesses unusual optimistic yields. The results suggest that there is a positive AR adjacent to the effective day (ED) of the event in the short run. However, in the long run, negative ARs in the post-effective to ED+90 days window is witnessed. Further, the analysis also suggests that share splits do not have a positive influence on the share capital of the investors. The results are based on the 10-days event and 90-days estimation window and are the main limitation of the study. Hence, the windows can be both expanded and reduced to have a better holistic impact analysis of the share splits and stock returns of the selected firms.

Financial instability, integration and volatility of emerging South Asian stock markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar ◽  
Raj S. Dhankar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
International Market ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the short- and long-run spillover effect of international financial instability on emerging South Asian stock markets. The paper also investigates the financial integration regionally. Design/methodology/approach Granger causality test is used for short-run causal relations. Since results of preliminary test highlight the significant autocorrelations in stock returns, GARCH class models with extreme shocks in international financial market are utilized to test the long-run spillover impact on stock returns. Findings Results indicate significant short- and long-run spillover impacts of international financial instability on the stock returns. They highlight the significant co-integration of South Asian stock markets with the international market. Significant correlations in stock returns and volatility reveal the degree of regional integration to be high between India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Research limitations/implications Business, political and market conditions of South Asian stock markets are fundamentally different from each other. These economies were liberalized at different time, which in turn may affect the degree of integration with international equity markets and regionally alike. Practical implications Financial liberalization has linked the South Asian stock markets to the rest of the world. Stock prices move in the same line with the emergence of global expected and unexpected economic shocks. The benefits that arise from the diversification of funds will be eradicated in the long run. Investors with long investment horizons will not actually benefit from portfolio diversification in South Asian equity markets. The Bangladesh stock market does not respond to volatility in international market in the short run and may be a good destination for short-term investment. Originality/value Pioneer efforts are made by utilizing a novel approach with the use of net volatility change in world financial instability for measuring the short- and long-run impacts. Given the emergence of South Asian stock markets, new insights into their vulnerability to world financial shocks provide interesting findings for portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals Impacts of Asset Utilization, Market Competition and Market Distance on Stock Returns

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Jeanne-Claire Patin ◽  
Matiur Rahman ◽  
Muhammad Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Firms ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Ols ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Market Distance

To empirically study the effects of asset utilization, market competition and market distance on stock returns of 1961 US public firms of different industry categories over 2001-2015. The heterogeneous panel data set consists of 23,532 (N= 1961*T= 15) observations. Pedroni’s panel co-integration, panel vector errorcorrection model (PVECM), panel dynamic OLS (PDOLS), and panel generalized method of moments (PGMM) are implemented. Both asset utilization and market competition have short-run and long-run positive effects on stock returns. But the effects of market distance are negative. The evidence for convergence toward the long-run equilibrium is very weak. Firms should be strategic to improve asset utilization, be more competitive and expand market distance to maximize stockholders’ wealth.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Returns Revisited

2020 ◽  
Vol 03 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Feifei Wang ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Real ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

I revisit the relation between macroeconomic activities and stock prices by selecting the most important macroeconomic variables that are appropriate for analyzing their impact on stock returns. Using vector autogressive models (VAR), combined with co integration analysis and the vector error correction model (VECM) I estimate the explanatory power of each macroeconomic variable on the variations of the stock prices and distinguish the short-run from long-run movements among all key macroeconomic variables. I find that (1) in the short-run macroeconomic variables do not appear help explain changes in stock returns, (2) in the long-run the real interest rate and industrial production are the most important macroeconomic factors, and (3) in the long-term the real economic activity and stock returns Granger-cause each other.

scholarly journals Are Kuwaiti Stock Returns Affected by Fluctuations in Oil Prices?

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Salem Alshihab ◽  
Nayef AlShammari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

This paper examines the impact of fluctuations in the price of oil on Kuwaiti stock market returns for the month-to-month period of 2000 to 2020. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, the error correction model (ECM), and various cointegration test techniques were used to examine the estimated model. In an oil-based economy like Kuwait, the exposure to oil prices seems to affect the performance of the country’s stock market. Our main findings related to the long run showed that the price of oil is cointegrated with stock market returns. Interestingly, our ECM examination confirmed that changes in Kuwaiti stock market returns are only affected by oil price fluctuations in the short run. Further strategies are needed to better stabilize Kuwait’s capital market. This equilibrium can be achieved by pursuing more stability in other macroeconomic factors and providing a solid legal independence for the country’s financial market.

scholarly journals The joint dynamics of investor beliefs and trading during the COVID-19 crash

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (4) ◽  
pp. e2010316118
Author(s):  
Stefano Giglio ◽  
Matteo Maggiori ◽  
Johannes Stroebel ◽  
Stephen Utkus
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Joint Dynamics ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Investor Expectations

We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February−March 2020 stock market crash induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the subsequent partial stock market recovery. We surveyed retail investors who are clients of Vanguard at three points in time: 1) on February 11–12, around the all-time stock market high, 2) on March 11–12, after the stock market had collapsed by over 20%, and 3) on April 16–17, after the market had rallied 25% from its lowest point. Following the crash, the average investor turned more pessimistic about the short-run performance of both the stock market and the real economy. Investors also perceived higher probabilities of both further extreme stock market declines and large declines in short-run real economic activity. In contrast, investor expectations about long-run (10-y) economic and stock market outcomes remained largely unchanged, and, if anything, improved. Disagreement among investors about economic and stock market outcomes also increased substantially following the stock market crash, with the disagreement persisting through the partial market recovery. Those respondents who were the most optimistic in February saw the largest decline in expectations and sold the most equity. Those respondents who were the most pessimistic in February largely left their portfolios unchanged during and after the crash.

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