Source‐to‐sink response to high‐amplitude lake level rise driven by orbital‐scale climate change: An example from the Pleistocene Lake Malawi (Nyasa) Rift, East Africa

Sedimentology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingxuan Tan ◽  
Christopher. A. Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
Lake Malawi ◽  
Source To Sink

scholarly journals Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Lucy Mtilatila ◽  
Axel Bronstert ◽  
Pallav Shrestha ◽  
Peter Kadewere ◽  
Klaus Vormoor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Lake Malawi ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Hydropower Production

The sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in the Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi model, which focuses on reservoir routing and lake water balance, has been developed and is interlinked between the two basins. Climate change projections from 20 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models for Africa based on two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 are used. An annual temperature increase of 1 °C decreases mean lake level and outflow by 0.3 m and 17%, respectively, signifying the importance of intensified evaporation for Lake Malawi’s water budget. Meanwhile, a +5% (−5%) deviation in annual rainfall changes mean lake level by +0.7 m (−0.6 m). The combined effects of temperature increase and rainfall decrease result in significantly lower flows in the Shire River. The hydrological river regime may change from perennial to seasonal with the combination of annual temperature increase and precipitation decrease beyond 1.5 °C (3.5 °C) and −20% (−15%). The study further projects a reduction in annual hydropower production between 1% (RCP8.5) and 2.5% (RCP4.5) during 2021–2050 and between 5% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) during 2071–2100. The results show that it is of great importance that a further development of hydro energy on the Shire River should take into account the effects of climate change, e.g., longer low flow periods and/or higher discharge fluctuations, and thus uncertainty in the amount of electricity produced.

Rock varnish record of the African Humid Period in the Lake Turkana basin of East Africa

The Holocene ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 095968362110116
Author(s):  
Tanzhuo Liu ◽  
Christopher J Lepre ◽  
Sidney R Hemming ◽  
Wallace S Broecker
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Early Holocene ◽  
Lake Turkana ◽  
Moisture Condition ◽  
Turkana Basin ◽  
Rock Varnish ◽  
Geomorphic Features ◽  
Humid Period

Rock varnish is a manganiferous dark coating accreted on subaerially exposed rocks in drylands. It often contains a layered microstratigraphy that records past wetness variations. Varnish samples from latest Pleistocene and Holocene geomorphic features in the Lake Turkana basin, East Africa display a regionally replicable microstratigraphy record of Holocene millennial-scale wetness variability and a broad interval of wetter conditions during the African Humid Period (AHP). Three major wet pulses in the varnish record occurred during the generally wet interval of the early Holocene (11.5–8.5 ka) when the lake attained its maximum high stand (MHS) at 455–460 m. A >23 m drop from the MHS occurred between 8.5 and 8 ka. Subsequently two additional wet pulses occurred during the early to middle Holocene (8–5 ka) when the lake occupied its secondary high stand at 445 m. Collectively, these five wet phases represent an extended wet interval coincident with the AHP in the region. One moderate wet phase occurred during the subsequent climatic transition from the humid to arid regime (5–4.3 ka) after the lake level dropped rapidly from 445 m to <405 m. Five minor wet phases took place during the overall arid period of the late Holocene (4.3–0 ka) when the lake level oscillated below 405 m. These findings indicate that the AHP terminated rapidly around 5 ka in the Turkana basin in terms of lake level drop, but the regional shift in relative humidity from the AHP mode to its present-day condition lagged for about 700 years until 4.3 ka, hinting at a gradual phasing out in terms of moisture condition. These findings further suggest that Lake Turkana overflowed intermittently into the Nile drainage system through its topographic sill at 455–460 m during the early Holocene and has become a closed-basin lake thereafter for the past 8 ky.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

Impact of extreme hydrological perturbation on sediment distribution from source to sink, PETM, Spain.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marine Prieur ◽  
Alexander C. Whittaker ◽  
Fritz Schlunegger ◽  
Tor O. Sømme ◽  
Jean Braun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Depositional Environments ◽  
Lead Author ◽  
Current Increase ◽  
Sediment Distribution ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Source To Sink ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Sedimentary dynamics and fluxes are influenced by both autogenic and allogenic forcings. A better understanding of the evolution of sedimentary systems through time and space requires us to decipher, and therefore to characterise, the impact of each of these on the Earth&amp;#8217;s landscape. Given the current increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon, studying the impact of rapid and global climate changes is of particular importance at the present time. Such events have been clearly defined in the geologic record. Among them, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) has been extensively studied worldwide and represents a possible analogue of the rapid current climate warming.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The present project focuses on the Southern Pyrenees (Spain) where excellent exposures of the Paleocene-Eocene interval span a large range of depositional environments from continental to deep-marine. These conditions allow us to collect data along the whole depositional system in order to document changes in sediment fluxes and paleohydraulic conditions. Because hydrological conditions have an impact on sediment transport through hydrodynamics, paleoflow reconstructions can shed light on changes in sediment dynamics. This information is reconstructed from the statistical distributions of channel morphologies, characteristic system dimensions including bankfull channel depth and width, and grain-sizes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With this approach, our aim is to provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments of the magnitude and extent of the perturbation of sedimentary fluxes along an entire source-to-sink system during an episode of extreme climate change. This will lead to a better understanding of the impact of abrupt climate change on earth surface systems in mid-latitudinal areas, with possible implications for current climate adaptation policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This research is carried out in the scope of the lead author&amp;#8217;s PhD project and is part of the S2S-FUTURE European Marie Sk&amp;#322;odowska-Curie ITN (Grant Agreement No 860383).&lt;/p&gt;

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