The Theory of Agricultural Price Bubble & Price Crash in Global Economy

Agricultural prices play greater role in living Economics. Since many decades’ farmers faced declining agricultural prices and low prices in developing countries. Therefore, in these countries agricultural price policies are under closer appraisal. Government and policy makers worry about inflation. Economic precision is required in determining prices. This understanding led to conception of the study. The specific objectives are to review various agricultural price theories, research evidences and construct the theory of agricultural price bubble and crash and their effect on macro economy and suggest measures to improve. The study reviews various agricultural price theories, concepts, policies, research gaps and do meta-analysis and formulated the theory of Agricultural prices bubble and price crash. Since 1950, many development economists and practitioners prophesy in developing countries is that low agricultural commodities prices discourage poverty alleviation. Many countries are unable to make successful pricing policies due to there is not enough operative methodological and theoretical support for decision-making. According to the economic theory of cooperativism, the entities come closer to the pecking order theory. Unexpected changes and changes in regulations can have significant impact on the profitability of farming activities. “Demand channel" is the crucial factor in elucidation of commodity price growth. Future prices moments in agriculture have fat-tailed distributions and display quick and unpredicted price jumps. World Trade Organization study highlights the importance of strengthening multilateral disciplines on both import and export trade interventions to food price fluctuations to reduce beggar-thy-neighbor unilateral trade policy. The theory of NAFTA regionalism did not lead to regionalization and not increasing share of intraregional international trade. In EU countries land rents in modern agriculture causing upward trend in agricultural land prices. Information friction, agricultural supports, agricultural price & trade policies, agricultural price transmission are responsible price fluctuations. In economic theory, asymmetric price transmission has been the subject of considerable attention in agricultural gaps. Selection of forecasting models are based on chaos theory. Chaos in agricultural wholesale price data provides a good theoretical basis for selecting forecasting models. This theory can be applied to agricultural prices forecasting. Novelties in agricultural products fluctuations research offer scientific basis in planning of agricultural production.

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Indirect economic indicators in bio-economic fishery models: agricultural price indicators and fish stocks in Lake Victoria

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.01.012 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 62 (3) ◽

pp. 483-492 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Silvio Simonit ◽

Charles Perrings

Keyword(s):

Nutrient Loading ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Lake Victoria ◽

Leading Indicators ◽

Fish Stocks ◽

Chl A ◽

Run Off ◽

Fishery Model ◽

Agricultural Price ◽

Point Pollution

Abstract We consider the potential for using prices as leading indicators of changes in stocks and yields in the freshwater capture fishery in Lake Victoria. Fertilizer run-off from agricultural land is a major cause of nutrient loading, along with soil erosion, atmospheric deposition, and point pollution from industrial and domestic affluent. The interactions between fertilizer applications, water quality, fish stocks, and yields are modelled in order to predict the effect of changes in the price of fertilizers on the fishery. The fishery model includes a measure of Chl a concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton density). The consequences of changes in Chl a concentration for fish stocks are modelled using Ecopath. We show that fertilizer prices are effective leading indicators of changes in fish biomass and yield.

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Responding to the increasing global demand for animal products: implications for the livelihoods of livestock producers in developing countries

BSAP Occasional Publication ◽

10.1017/s1463981500041637 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 33 ◽

pp. 1-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

D. Thomas ◽

D. Rangnekar

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Livestock Production ◽

Animal Origin ◽

Forage Crops ◽

Animal Products ◽

Food Of Animal Origin ◽

Global Demand

Livestock production currently accounts for some 40% of the gross value of world agricultural production, and its share is rising (FAO, 2002). Livestock production is the largest user of agricultural land; directly through grazing of pastures and indirectly through the production of forage crops and other feeds. Over the next 20 years, there will be a massive increase in demand for food of animal origin in developing countries, and this increase will be greater than for either the major cereals or roots and tubers (IFPRI, 1995; Delgado et al., 1999).

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EIA in developing countries: How does environmental impact assessment (EIA)/(AMDAL) support neoliberal mining? (a case study in Indonesia)

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/905/1/012043 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 905 (1) ◽

pp. 012043

Author(s):

T Kumayza

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Economic Development ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Legal Protection ◽

East Kalimantan ◽

Land Owners ◽

Development Tool ◽

Government Supervision ◽

Micro Level

Abstract Amdal regulation on mining exploitation according to Law No. 32 of 2009 aims to protect and manage the environment properly. This research reveals the paradox of EIA at the micro level (a case study) supporting the neoliberal agenda and facilitating economic development. This study aimed to explore how the practice of compensation for agricultural land at the scoping stage in the preparation of mining Amdal documents. The research was conducted in Mulawarman village, Kutai Kartanagara district, East Kalimantan province in the period 2004-2013. Historically, in the 2004-2013 period, Kutai Kartanegara Regency was the most massive in issuing mining business permits in Indonesia. The results of the study indicate that there was weak legal protection for agricultural land owners and unequal negotiation practices between companies and land owners without government supervision. The practice of compensation is a development tool rather than an environmental protection tool..

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Price Transmission from World to Local Grain Markets in Developing Countries: Why It Matters, How It Works, and How It Should Be Enhanced

Trade Policy and Food Security: Improving Access to Food in Developing Countries in the Wake of High World Prices ◽

10.1596/978-1-4648-0305-5_ch3 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 65-85 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Sergiy Zorya ◽

Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel ◽

Friederike Greb ◽

Nelissa Jamora ◽

Carolin Mengel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Price Transmission ◽

Grain Markets

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Neuroeconomics as a Factor in the Decision-Making of Women Entrepreneurs in Developing Countries

Effective Strategies for Communicating Insights in Business - Advances in Human Resources Management and Organizational Development ◽

10.4018/978-1-7998-3964-4.ch006 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 87-100

Author(s):

Jovanna Nathalie Cervantes-Guzmán

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Economic Theory ◽

Developing Countries ◽

Women Entrepreneurs ◽

Good Decision ◽

Behavioral Bias ◽

Decision Making Models

Neuroeconomics will help solve questions that constitute a good decision, the factors that influence decisions, and how they are made. The study will expose from the experts' opinion the tangible and intangible factors that influence decisions from the perspective of the neuroeconomics. A modified Dephi method that integrates neuroeconomics is used. Neuroeconomics has the potential to explain phenomena that are considered a deviation from the prediction or behavioral bias of decision-making models in economic theory. The study exposes the opinions that have a greater degree of relevance from the experts.

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How Environmental Degradation Impoverishes the Poor

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science ◽

10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.013.403 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Edward B. Barbier

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Global Markets ◽

Rural Poor ◽

Vicious Cycle ◽

Remote Areas ◽

The Poor ◽

Poor Households ◽

Agricultural Potential ◽

Poor Soil

Globally, around 1.5 billion people in developing countries, or approximately 35% of the rural population, can be found on less-favored agricultural land (LFAL), which is susceptible to low productivity and degradation because the agricultural potential is constrained biophysically by terrain, poor soil quality, or limited rainfall. Around 323 million people in such areas also live in locations that are highly remote, and thus have limited access to infrastructure and markets. The households in such locations often face a vicious cycle of declining livelihoods, increased ecological degradation and loss of resource commons, and declining ecosystem services on which they depend. In short, these poor households are prone to a poverty-environment trap. Policies to eradicate poverty, therefore, need to be targeted to improve the economic livelihood, productivity, and income of the households located on remote LFAL. The specific elements of such a strategy include involving the poor in paying for ecosystem service schemes and other measures that enhance the environments on which the poor depend; targeting investments directly to improving the livelihoods of the rural poor, thus reducing their dependence on exploiting environmental resources; and tackling the lack of access by the rural poor in less-favored areas to well-functioning and affordable markets for credit, insurance, and land, as well as the high transportation and transaction costs that prohibit the poorest households in remote areas to engage in off-farm employment and limit smallholder participation in national and global markets.

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