Modelling Uncertainty in Competitive Bidding

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie E. Kreye ◽  
Yee Mey Goh ◽  
Linda B. Newnes
Keyword(s):  
Data Gathering ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Competitive Bidding ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Modelling Uncertainty ◽  
Service Contracts ◽  
Provision Of Services

Due to the current market development of servitisation, manufacturing companies are required to compete through the provision of services as opposed to physical products. For such companies, the shift towards being a service provider often means they have to bid for service contracts, sometimes competitively. In the context of competitive bidding, the decision makers face various influencing uncertainties. Ignoring these uncertainties or their influences can result in problems such as the generation of too little profit or even a loss or the exposure to financial risks. Raising the decision maker’s awareness of the uncertainties can provide valuable information to assist in the decision-making process. The research presented in this paper presents an approach to modeling the uncertainties at the competitive bidding stage for long-life, high-value service contracts. The aim of this research is to provide decision makers with a decision matrix which illustrates the probability of winning the service contract and the probability of making a profit. The framework utilized for identifying the uncertainties and a layered approach for analyzing these uncertainties is described. These are then applied to a case study where the modeling approaches and data gathering methods are explained and the results are displayed via the decision matrix.

Uncertainty Analysis and Its Application to Service Contracts

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie E. Kreye ◽  
Linda B. Newnes ◽  
Yee Mey Goh
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Influencing Factor ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Market Structures ◽  
Service Contracts

Because of the transformation of market structures into the direction of servitization, manufacturing companies are forced to compete through the supply of services as opposed to products. Competing for these service contracts, particularly during bidding, the decision makers face various uncertainties that influence their decisions. This paper presents a holistic approach for identifying, modeling and representing these uncertainties to enable a more informed decision. As current literature lacks a holistic approach to characterize uncertainty, this paper proposes such an approach by classifying uncertainty into five layers. It is described how they offer an integrated approach to describing the uncertainty inherent in a situation. This classification is then applied to the bidding situation for a service contract in the form of a conceptual framework. This framework depicts the influencing factors on a bidding decision, namely, the contract conditions, internal company perspective, competitors and customer. To demonstrate the use of the uncertainty classification in detail the influencing factor of the customer is used as an exemplar. The uncertainty connected to the customer is characterized and the techniques for modeling the uncertainty are described. It is explained how the can be included in a decision matrix representing the probability of winning the contract.

scholarly journals Overcoming managers’ myopic decisions in a waste collection company

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1023-1041
Author(s):  
Enzo Bivona ◽  
Francesco Ceresia ◽  
Giovanni Tumminello
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Fleet Management ◽  
Waste Collection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Scenarios

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show how the changing interrelationships between fleet management, human resources and outsourcer capacity areas are likely to counterbalance managerial policies, thereby generating a performance decay. The use of system dynamics modelling in a waste collection company offered an effective contribution to support decision makers to overcoming myopic decisions. Design/methodology/approach Literature review and a case study analysis (including interviews with company actors and data gathering) offered the basis to build a system dynamics model. The model built was then used to run simulations sessions to assess alternative investments decisions. Findings Simulation results show that understanding cause-and-effect relationships between company sub-systems can help managers to shift the focus of their decision process from a single department to the whole business system. Further, the paper offers three alternative scenarios (myopic, reactive and proactive) from which to learn how to design effective long-term sustainable policies. Research limitations/implications The simulation model was developed based on a literature review and a single-case study. Although it offers a useful contribution in the investigated case, to generalise its results, additional application to waste collection companies would be desirable. Practical implications The findings of the study have implications for public decision makers and those scholars investigating how to discourage the adoption of myopic decisions in complex environments. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, only few studies investigated how the fleet management is likely to impact on the performance of waste collection companies. This study offers a contribution in this direction.

scholarly journals Distance-to-target weighting in LCA—A matter of perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Muhl ◽  
Markus Berger ◽  
Matthias Finkbeiner
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Single Region ◽  
Water Scarce ◽  
Country Specific ◽  
Policy Targets

Abstract Purpose Weighting can enable valuable support for decision-makers when interpreting life cycle assessment (LCA) results. Distance-to-target (DtT) weighting is based on the distance of policy (desired) targets to current environmental situations, and recent methodological DtT developments are based on a weighting perspective of a single region or country, considering mainly environmental situations in consuming countries or regions. However, as product supply chains are spread over many countries, this study aims at developing additional weighting approaches (producer regions and worst-case regions) and applying them in a theoretical case study on a global scale. Methods The current study is carried out to understand the influence of and the effect on weighting results of different countries and regions with their specific environmental policy targets. Based on the existing Ecological Scarcity Method (ESM), eco-factors for the three environmental issues climate change, acidification, and water resources were derived for as many countries as possible. The regional eco-factors were applied in a case study for steel and aluminum considering the three different weighting approaches on different regional scales. Results and discussion The analysis revealed significant differences in the obtained weighting results as well as strengths and limitations in the applicability of the examined perspectives. Acidification was showed to be highly important with between 80 and 92% of the aggregated weighting results among the perspectives where water-scarce countries were not involved. Water-scarce countries had a significant influence (75–95%) when they were part of the examined case study. Conclusions The developed approaches enable the assessment of global value chains in different producer regions as well as the utilization of the conservative worst-case-regions approach. The approaches can foster future decision-making in LCA contexts while providing country-specific results based on different weighting perspectives in national, regional, and global contexts. However, for a complete implementation of the presented approaches, further data gathering is needed on environmental situations and policy targets in different countries as well as regionalized life cycle data.

Bidding Decision Model Based on Prospect Theory and Game Theory

2013 ◽  
Vol 723 ◽  
pp. 951-959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Yuan Cheng ◽  
Chia Chi Hsiang
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Competitive Bidding ◽  
Bidding Strategy ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
Bidding Price ◽  
Optimal Bidding

In the construction industry, most of the owners apply competitive bidding to award a contract to the lowest price qualified contractor. This study proposes a model concerning the preferences and the behaviors of all decision makers whom participation in an competitive bidding to assist contractors to make optimal bidding strategy decisions and set appropriate bidding prices. Researchers demonstrated model applicability using an actual case study, which shows how this model help the construction company’s primary decision maker to determine the appropriate bidding price in a multi-competitors condition.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF TACTICAL PLANNING MATURITY IN SUPPLY CHAINS OF MANUFACTURING COMPANIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-93
Author(s):  
Dorota Anna Szczakowska
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Research Participant ◽  
Maturity Model ◽  
Tactical Planning ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Proposed Model

This paper aims to propose and test a model facilitating assessment of tactical planning maturity in supply chains of manufacturing companies. The author proposes a model called Tactical Planning Maturity Model (TPMM). The model is created based on literature research, participant observations and data gathering conducted in two companies. The proposed framework combines both knowledge from supply chain integration and steps necessary to reach proficiency in sales and operation planning. The second step consists of choosing a case study method to verify model adequacy in two companies operating in central Poland. The findings illustrate the TPMM as a ready-to-use tool where the line to supply chain maturity is clearly drafted and results could be compared between production companies. This paper strengthens the link between practitioner and academic literature by providing empirical evidence of the benefits of tactical planning maturity model usage as well as its impact on further development of supply chains. This paper studied merely two companies and is not intended to be representative of outcomes for all companies looking to understand the complexity and maturity of their supply chains. Furthermore, the analyzed companies only reached level four in the maturity model; levels five and six were not observed. Further quantitative studies are required for testing the accuracy of the proposed model and potentially, qualitative studies could be undertaken in order to understand factors enabling the increase in maturity of tactical planning in the supply chains of manufacturing companies.

Overcoming Challenges of International Migration Research: A Case Study Approach in Southern Mexico

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-143
Author(s):  
Julie Boyles
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Ethnographic Case Study ◽  
Case Study Approach ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Mixed Methods Approach ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Migration Research

An ethnographic case study approach to understanding women’s actions and reactions to husbands’ emigration—or potential emigration—offers a distinct set of challenges to a U.S.-based researcher.  International migration research in a foreign context likely offers challenges in language, culture, lifestyle, as well as potential gender norm impediments. A mixed methods approach contributed to successfully overcoming barriers through an array of research methods, strategies, and tactics, as well as practicing flexibility in data gathering methods. Even this researcher’s influence on the research was minimized and alleviated, to a degree, through ascertaining common ground with many of the women. Research with the women of San Juan Guelavía, Oaxaca, Mexico offered numerous and constant challenges, each overcome with ensuing rewards.

De la gestión local a la gobernanza global: actores e interacciones multiniveles en la gestión del agua en la ciudad de México

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 34-66
Author(s):  
Joyce Valdovinos
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Water Governance ◽  
The State ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Service Contracts ◽  
Governance Model ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
The One

The provision of water services has traditionally been considered a responsibility of the state. During the late 1980s, the private sector emerged as a key actor in the provision of public services. Mexico City was no exception to this trend and public authorities awarded service contracts to four private consortia in 1993. Through consideration of this case study, two main questions arise: First, why do public authorities establish partnerships with the private sector? Second, what are the implications of these partnerships for water governance? This article focuses, on the one hand, on the conceptual debate of water as a public and/or private good, while identifying new trends and strategies carried out by private operators. On the other hand, it analyzes the role of the state and its relationships with other actors through a governance model characterized by partnerships and multilevel networks.Spanish La provisión del servicio del agua ha sido tradicionalmente considerada como una responsabilidad del Estado. A finales de la década de 1980, el sector privado emerge como un actor clave en el suministro de servicios públicos. La ciudad de México no escapa a esta tendencia y en 1993 las autoridades públicas firman contratos de servicios con cuatro consorcios privados. A través de este estudio de caso, dos preguntas son planteadas: ¿Por qué las autoridades públicas establecen partenariados con el sector privado? ¿Cuáles son las implicaciones de dichos partenariados en la gobernanza del agua? Este artículo aborda por una parte, el debate conceptual del agua como bien público y/o privado, identificando nuevas tendencias y estrategias de los operadores privados. Por otra parte, se analizan el rol y las relaciones del Estado con otros actores a través de un modelo de gobernanza, definido en términos de partenariados y redes multi-niveles.French Les services de l'eau ont été traditionnellement considérés comme une responsabilité de l'État. À la fin des années 1980, le secteur privé est apparu comme un acteur clé dans la fourniture de certains services publics. La ville de Mexico n'a pas échappé à cette tendance et en 1993, les autorités publiques ont signé des contrats de services avec quatre consortiums privés. À travers cette étude de cas, nous nous interrogerons sur deux aspects : pourquoi les autorités publiques établissentelles des partenariats avec le secteur privé ? Quelles sont les implications de ces partenariats sur la gouvernance de l'eau ? Cet article s'intéresse, d'une part, au débat conceptuel sur l'eau en tant que bien public et/ou privé, en identifiant les tendances nouvelles et les stratégies menées par les opérateurs privés. D'autre part y sont analysés le rôle de l'État et ses relations avec d'autres acteurs à travers un modèle de gouvernance, défini en termes de partenariats, et des réseaux multi-niveaux.

scholarly journals The Enabling Role of Digital Technologies in Sustainability Accounting: Findings from Norwegian Manufacturing Companies

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Olena Klymenko ◽  
Lise Lillebrygfjeld Halse ◽  
Bjørn Jæger
Keyword(s):  
Research Area ◽  
Digital Data ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Sustainable Operations ◽  
Business Model Canvas ◽  
Automation And Control ◽  
Sustainability Accounting ◽  
And Control

Sustainability accounting is an emerging research area receiving growing awareness. This study examines the role of digital technology in manufacturing companies’ sustainability accounting. To guide the research, we use a triple layered business model canvas, which supports the accounting of a manufacturer’s performance for the economic, environmental, and social aspects of sustainability. We present an explorative case study of four Norwegian manufacturing companies representing different industries. The findings from the study indicate that while accounting for economic values is well taken care of, companies do not perform comprehensive environmental and social accounting. Furthermore, we observed a shift from a focus on sustainability issues related to the internal manufacturing process to a focus on sustainability issues for the life cycle of the product. Even though the manufacturers are at the forefront with regard to automation and control of production, with extensive use of robots giving a large amount of data, these data are not utilized towards sustainability accounting, showing that sustainability and digitalization are seen as two separate phenomena. This study sheds light on how digital data available from applied Industry 4.0 technologies could enhance sustainability accounting with limited efforts, linking sustainability and digitalization. The results provide insights for manufacturers and researchers in moving towards more sustainable operations and products.

scholarly journals A FMEA Based Method for Analyzing and Prioritizing Performance Risk at the Conceptual Stage of Performance PSS Design

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
John Bake Sakwe ◽  
Marcus Pereira Pessoa ◽  
Sipke Hoekstra
Keyword(s):  
Failure Modes ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Performance Risk ◽  
Performance Contracts ◽  
Product Service ◽  
Optical Sorting ◽  
Fmea Method ◽  
Performance Challenges ◽  
Product Service Systems

AbstractWith the quest for enhancing competitive position, fulfilling customer and sustainability demands, increasing profitability, asset manufacturing companies are now adapting assets towards product service systems (PSS) offered through performance contracts. Despite several benefits, the shift to performance PSS exposes industrial asset manufacturers' to performance challenges and risks. Currently, PSS designers face a challenge to exhaustively identify potential failures during PSS development. Knowledge of Product failures is critical prior to the engineering of PSS. This paper proposes a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) method to support designers' prioritise critical failures in performance PSS development. A case study of an optical sorting machine is used to demonstrate the method's application.

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