RELAP5 Code Analysis of LSTF Small Break LOCA Tests With Steam Generator Intentional Depressurization and its Uncertainty Quantification by Monte Carlo Method and Wilks Formula Approach
The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) method has been applied by the authors to analysis of the “intentional depressurization of steam generator secondary side” which is an accident management procedure in a small break loss-of-coolant accident with high pressure injection system failure. In the present study, experimental analyses using the RELAP5/MOD3.2 code were carried out for the ROSA/Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF) secondary-side depressurization tests. The two test cases were selected with different break sizes and different depressurization conditions to ensure the reliability for the accident scenario analyses. The uncertainty propagation analyses were performed through the random variations of input parameters whose uncertainty ranges and distributions were determined previously by the PIRT and the separate effects tests. One thousand random calculations were conducted to get the 95% upper limit values of the peak cladding temperature (PCT) by the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the 95%/95% tolerance limits for the PCT were obtained according to Wilks formula. It was confirmed that the code predicted well the major event progressions such as rod surface temperature and the 95% uncertainty bands included the measured values. Furthermore, the 95% upper limit values of the PCT are below the 95%/95% tolerance limit values. However, the statistical fluctuation of the tolerance limit values by Wilks first order formula is as large as the uncertainty value itself. The statistical fluctuation decreases with increasing order of Wilk formula. It is desirable to increase the order of Wilks formula to more than the second order to get the reliable safety margin.