Comparison of M Estimation, S Estimation, with MM Estimation to Get the Best Estimation of Robust Regression in Criminal Cases in Indonesia

Crime incidents that occurred in Indonesia in 2019 based on Survey Based Data on criminal data sourced from the National Socio-Economic Survey and Village Potential Data Collection produced by the Central Statistics Agency recorded 269,324 cases. The high crime rate is caused by several factors, including poverty and population density. Determination of the most influential factors in criminal acts in Indonesia can be done with Regression Analysis. One method of Regression Analysis that is very commonly used is the Least Square Method. However, Regression Analysis can be used if the assumption test is met. If outliers are found, then the assumption test is not completed. The outlier problem can be overcome by using a robust estimation method. This study aims to determine the best estimation method between Maximum Likelihood Type (M) estimation, Scale (S) estimation, and Method of Moment (MM) estimation on Robust Regression. The best estimate of Robust Regression is the smallest Residual Standard Error (RSE) value and the largest Adjusted R-square. The analysis of case studies of criminal acts in Indonesia in 2019 showed that the best estimate was the S estimate with an RSE value of 4226 and an Adjusted R-square of 0.98

Best-Estimate for System Codes (BeSYC): A New Software to Perform Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty Analyses with Thermal-Hydraulic and Safety System Codes for Both Fusion and Fission Scenarios

The development and the validation of old and new software in relevant DEMO reactor conditions have been exploited in the latest years within the EUROfusion Consortium. The aim was to use—if possible—the software already validated for fission reactors and to fill the gaps with new ad-hoc software. As contribution to this effort, the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) developed and tested a novel software to apply the Best-Estimate Model Calibration and Prediction through Experimental Data Assimilation methodology to the system codes RELAP5-3D, MELCOR 1.8.6, and MELCOR 2.2. This software is called Best-estimate for SYstem Codes (BeSYC), and it is developed as a MATLAB App. The application is in charge of applying the mathematical framework of the methodology, writing and executing the code runs required by the methodology, and printing the obtained results. The main goal of BeSYC is to wrap up the methodology in a software suitable to be used by any user through a simple graphical user interface. Albeit developed in the fusion research context, BeSYC can be applied to any reactor/scenario type supported by the specific system code. The goals of BeSYC, the mathematical framework, the main characteristics, and the performed verification and validation activities are described in this paper.

Determination of crop-coefficients and estimation of evapotranspiration of rapeseed using lysimeter and different reference evapotranspiration models

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration of rapeseed is essentially required for irrigation scheduling and water management. The present study was undertaken during 2015-16 and 2017-18 in ICR Farm, Assam Agricultural University, Jorhat to determine the crop coefficients (Kc) and estimate evapotranspiration of rapeseed using lysimeter and eight reference evapotranspiration models viz. Penman-Monteith, Advection-Aridity (Bruitsaert-Strickler), Granger-Gray, Makkink, Blaney-Criddle, Turc (1961), Hargreaves-Somani and Priestly-Tailor models. During 2015-16, the crop coefficients were developed by these models. Actual evapotranspiration was determined by three weighing type lysimeters. During 2017-18, evapotranspiration was estimated by multiplying reference evapotranspiration with Kc derived by different models and compared with actual evapotranspiration estimated by lysimeter during similar growing periods. All the models except Turc (1961) showed less than 10% deviation between actual and estimated ET. The estimated evapotranspiration using Penman-Monteith and Priestly-Tailor reference evapotranspiration recorded the lowest MAE and RMSE. The study revealed that estimated evapotranspiration using Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration gave the best estimate of evapotranspiration of rapeseed followed by Priestly-Tailor. The crop coefficients for initial, mid and end stages were 0.83, 1.20 and 0.65, respectively for Penman-Monteith and 0.70, 1.05 and 0.55, respectively for Priestly-Tailor.These results can be used for efficient management of irrigation water for rapeseed.

Diophantine approximation with the constant right-hand side of inequalities on short intervals

In the metric theory of Diophantine approximations, one of the main problems leading to exact characteristics in the classifications of Mahler and Koksma is to estimate the Lebesgue measure of the points x ∈ B ⊂ I from the interval I such as the inequality | P (x) | < Q-w, w > n, Q >1 for the polynomials P(x) ∈ Z[x], deg P ≤ n, H(P) ≤Q is satisfied. The methods of obtaining estimates are different at different intervals of w change. In this article, at w > n +1 we get the estimate µ B< c1(n) Q – (w-1/n). The best estimate to date was c2(n) Q –(w- n/n).

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the In-Vessel Hydrogen Generation for Gen-III PWR and Phebus FPT-1 with MELCOR 2.2

In this study, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed with MELCOR 2.2.18 to study the hydrogen generation (figure-of-merit (FoM)) during the in-vessel phase of a severe accident in a light water reactor. The focus of this work was laid on a large generation-III pressurized water reactor (PWR) and a double-ended hot leg (HL) large break loss of coolant accident (LB-LOCA) without a safety injection (SI). The FPT-1 Phebus integral experiment emulating LOCA was studied, where the experiment outcomes were applied for the plant scale modelling. The best estimate calculations were supplemented with an uncertainty analysis (UA) based on 400 input-decks and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Additionally, the sensitivity analysis (SA) utilizing the linear regression and linear and rank correlation coefficients was performed. The study was prepared with a new open-source MELCOR sensitivity and uncertainty tool (MelSUA), which was supplemented with this work. The FPT-1 best-estimate model results were within the 10% experimental uncertainty band for the final FoM. It was shown that the hydrogen generation uncertainties in PWR were similar to the FPT-1, with the 95% percentile being covered inside a ~50% band and the 50% percentile inside a ~25% band around the FoM median. Two different power profiles for PWR were compared, indicating its impact on the uncertainty but also on the sensitivity results. Despite a similar setup, different uncertainty parameters impacted FoM, showing the difference between scales but also a significant impact of boundary conditions on the sensitivity analysis.

Verification of a real-time interactive transient simulator for Dalat Nuclear Research Reactor

A PC-based real-time interactive transient simulator of Dalat Nuclear Research Reactor (DNRR), namely DalatSim, based on the best-estimate thermal-hydraulic code RELAP5/MOD3.3 has been currently building at Center for Nuclear Technologies (CNT). This paper presents the study on developing the physics core, control module, and human-machine interface (HMI) of DalatSim. The nodalization of DNRR used for DalatSim was based on the reported numerical model in the Safety Analysis Report (SAR) in 2012. DalatSim can simulate operational procedures and several hypothetical transient accidents of DNRR. A curve of real operational power of DNRR was used to compare with calculation power results from DalatSim to verify its capability. The verification results are presented and discussed.