Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Structural Reliability Analysis of Reeled Pipes

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo A. Ernst ◽  
Ricardo Schifini ◽  
Richard E. Bravo ◽  
Diego N. Passarella ◽  
Federico Daguerre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Crack Size ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Statistical Distribution ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Statistical Distributions ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis

Structural integrity analyses are used to guarantee the reliability of critical engineering components under certain conditions of interest. In general, the involved parameters have statistical distributions. Choosing a single set of values for the parameters of interest does not show the real statistical distribution of the output parameters. In particular, offshore pipes installation by reeling is a matter of concern due to the severe conditions of the process. Since it is necessary to guarantee the integrity of the pipes, a probabilistic fracture mechanics reliability analysis seems to be the most adequate approach. In this work, a probabilistic fracture mechanics assessment approach to perform the structural reliability analysis of tubes subjected to a reeling process was developed. This procedure takes into account the statistical distributions of the material properties and pipe geometry, using a fracture mechanics approach and the Monte Carlo method. Two-parameter Weibull distributions were used to model the variability of the input parameters. The assessment procedure was implemented as a self-contained executable program. The program outputs are: the statistical distribution of critical crack size, amount of crack extension, final crack size and the cumulative probability of failure for a given crack size. A particular case of interest was studied; a seamless tube - OD 323.9 × wt 14.3 mm, was analyzed. Tolerable defect size limits (defect depth vs. defect length curves) for different probability of failure levels were obtained. A sensitivity analysis was performed; the effect of material fracture toughness and misalignment was studied.

Wellhead Fatigue Analysis Method: Benefits of a Structural Reliability Analysis Approach

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Lorents Reinås ◽  
Jan Mathisen
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Fatigue Analysis ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Inspection Planning ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Extreme Load ◽  
Input Parameters

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) methods have been applied to marine and offshore structures for decades. SRA has proven useful in life extension exercises and inspection planning of existing offshore structures. It is also a useful tool in code development, where the reliability level provided by the code is calibrated to a target failure probability obtained by SRA. This applies both to extreme load situations and also to a structural system under the influence of a time dependent degradation process such as fatigue. The current analysis methods suggested for service life estimation of subsea wells are deterministic, and these analyses are associated with high sensitivity to variations in input parameters. Thus sensitivity screening is often recommended for certain input parameters, and the worst case is then typically used as a basis for the analysis. The associated level of conservatism embedded in results from a deterministic analysis is not quantified, and it is therefore difficult to know and to justify if unnecessary conservatism can be removed from the calculations. By applying SRA to a wellhead fatigue analysis, the input parameters are accounted for with their associated uncertainty given by probability distributions. Analysis results can be generated by use of Monte-Carlo simulations or FORM/SORM (first/second order reliability methods), accounting for the full scatter of system relations and input variations. The level of conservatism can then be quantified and evaluated versus an acceptable probability of failure. This article presents results from a SRA of a fictitious but still realistic well model, including the main assumptions that were made, and discusses how SRA can be applied to a wellhead fatigue analysis. Global load analyses and local stress calculations were carried out prior to the SRA, and a response surface technique was used to interpolate on these results. This analysis has been limited to two hotspots located in each of the two main load bearing members of the wellhead system. The SRA provides a probability of failure estimate that may be used to give better decision support in the event of life extension of existing subsea wells. In addition, a relative uncertainty ranking of input variables provides insight into the problem and knowledge about where risk reducing efforts should be made to reduce the uncertainty. It should be noted that most attention has been given to the method development, and that more comprehensive analysis work and assessment of specific input is needed in a real case.

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Methodology Applied to Pipes Subjected to Multiple Reeling Cycles

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo A. Ernst ◽  
Richard E. Bravo ◽  
Ricardo Schifini ◽  
Diego N. Passarella
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Crack ◽  
Fatigue Crack Growth ◽  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Crack Growth ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Pipe Geometry ◽  
Cyclic Plastic Deformation

Reeling process is one of the more used methods for installations of linepipes in recent years. Pipes are welded onshore and subsequently reeled onto a drum. During installation, the line is unreeled, straightened, and then laid into the sea. The pipe is subjected to severe cyclic plastic deformation. Due to the characteristics of the process, it is necessary to guarantee the integrity of the components during and after the process. For this reason, structural reliability analyses are essential requirements. In a previous work [1], a fracture mechanics based methodology was developed to obtain a method to assess the structural reliability of reeled pipes. The problem of several reeling cycles was considered. In addition to a fracture mechanics methodology, a formulation considering fatigue crack growth (FCG) controlled by ΔJ parameter was developed. This formulation accounts for the crack growth produced during subsequent reeling cycles. In another work [2], a probabilistic fracture mechanics assessment approach to perform the structural reliability analysis of tubes subjected to a reeling process was developed. This procedure takes into account the statistical distributions of the material properties and pipe geometry, using a fracture mechanics approach and the Monte Carlo method. In this work, the probabilistic fracture mechanics approach was applied for the case of multiple reeling cycles that includes ΔJ-based fatigue crack growth and reliability analysis. A particular case of interest was studied and tolerable defect sizes were determined for different number of reeling cycles taking into account the parameters variability.

Structural Integrity Evaluation of Reactor Pressure Vessels During PTS Events Using Deterministic and Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuya Osakabe ◽  
Hiroyuki Nishikawa ◽  
Koichi Masaki ◽  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Kunio Onizawa
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Crack Size ◽  
Initial Crack ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Main Steam Line ◽  
Main Steam

To assess the structural integrity of reactor vessels (RVs) during pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events, a deterministic fracture mechanics (DFM) approach has been widely used such as the procedure in JEAC4206-2007. On the other hand, the application of a probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis method for the structural reliability assessment of RV has become attractive recently because uncertainties related to input parameters can be incorporated rationally. The probabilistic approach has already been adopted as the regulation on fracture toughness requirements against PTS events in the U.S. In this paper, in order to verify the applicability of a PFM method to JEAC4206-2007, deterministic and probabilistic analyses have been performed, and the effects of initial crack size defined in JEAC4206-2007 on the temperature margin obtained from DFM and the probability of crack initiation obtained from PFM have been evaluated. With regard to the PTS event variation, a stuck open valve scenario (SO) has been considered in addition to large- and small-break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA, SBLOCA) and main steam line break (MSLB).

Casing Collapse Design Using Structural Reliability Analysis for a Subsea Well on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Buchmiller ◽  
Arve Bjørset ◽  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Sune Pettersen
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Specific Input ◽  
Well Design ◽  
Casing Collapse

Casing collapse capacity was identified by Statoil as a critical operational parameter on one of its fields in production. This facilitated the need to re-evaluate the overall well design, specifically the production casing’s collapse capacity. Studies were performed to analyze and objectively increase the documented casing collapse capacity, while maintaining the safety level. Initially, the casing collapse capacity was evaluated using API TR 5C3 / ISO 10400, with insufficient capacity being documented. In order to investigate further, physical material testing and collapse testing were performed. Detailed finite element analysis was used to evaluate the casing collapse capacity, given well specific input parameters. The four critical parameters of axial load, casing ovality, casing wear, and temperature-dependent material properties were identified and the importance of each parameter was mapped. Using the testing results and the finite element models as a basis, structural reliability analysis (SRA) was applied to calculate the probability of failure for casing collapse of the production casing as a function of the differential pressure. The SRA provided results for the spread of the field and for individual wells given specific input on the key parameters of casing ovality, wear and temperature. At the selected target reliability level, the SRA results showed a higher collapse capacity of the production casing relative to conservative calculations commonly used from API TR 5C3 / ISO 10400 for well design. Applying SRA to well design, specifically collapse evaluations, has proven useful in concluding on the probability of failure. The SRA has transformed improved knowledge from testing and measurements to reduced uncertainty and a corresponding reduction in the failure probability. The potential over-conservatism in the conventional deterministic analysis is then avoided, while maintaining the overall safety level. The SRA results were used to assist in the risk evaluation resulting in an allowance for continued production on existing wells.

STOCHASTIC CALCULATION OF LIFETIME PREDICTION FOR COMPONENTS IN METAL STRUCTURES DUE TO THE GROWTH OF MICRODEFECTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (97) ◽  
pp. 69-76
Author(s):  
IGOR N. SILVERSTOV
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Strength ◽  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Fatigue Curve ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Lifetime Prediction ◽  
Statistical Distributions ◽  
Metal Structures

A stochastic approach has been developed to evaluate fatigue strength using elements of the fracture mechanics. The article presents a method for determining the initial parameters of statistical distributions. It also considers the method for constructing a fatigue curve for a component of any size and configuration with any given probability of failure.

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