scholarly journals FPSO Risk Assessment and Acceptance Criteria With Application to FPSO Mooring Systems

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael H. Faber ◽  
Daniel Straub ◽  
Roberto Montes-Iturrizaga ◽  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Design Code ◽  
Mooring Lines ◽  
Industrial Project ◽  
Life Saving

Risk based design code safety format calibration for FPSO installations is addressed based on the results of a recent industrial project performed for IMP by the authors. Generic risk models for general engineering systems are introduced taking basis in recent work by the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS). Thereafter, the scenarios considered for the risk based calibration of a design code safety format for the design of FPSO facilities in the Gulf of Mexico are outlined in some detail. Furthermore, it is shown how these scenarios may be represented in a generic risk assessment model greatly enhanced by the utilization of hierarchical risk modeling procedures such as Bayesian Probabilistic Nets (BPN’s). A short outline of the Life Quality Index (LQI) principle is then introduced as a practically applicable means to determine how much should be invested into life saving activities. Finally, an example is given where the introduced concepts are used for the purpose of determining the target reliability index for individual mooring lines taking into account the direct and indirect consequences of failure of the mooring system for a considered generic FPSO installation.

scholarly journals Safety risk assessment model based on comprehensive weight - set pair analysis theory for heritage buildings adjacent to metro construction

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Wang ◽  
Changming Yang ◽  
Lin Tian ◽  
Jiguang Lu ◽  
Fengwen Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Set Pair Analysis ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Heritage Buildings ◽  
Heritage Building ◽  
Pair Analysis ◽  
Spa Model

Abstract With the rapid development of urban rail transit systems, the safety of nearby heritage buildings and historic sites is threatened. To better protect these heritage buildings and sites, it is crucial to be able to rapidly and accurately evaluate these threats, especially when a rail project has a potential impact upon numerous heritage buildings and sites in an old city. Based on set pair analysis (SPA) theory, this paper presents a risk assessment model to assess the safety of heritage buildings adjacent to metro construction. First, the risk level of adjacent heritage buildings is graded. Second, this study establishes an assessment index system comprising 16 single indexes among four categories related to heritage building, metro, soil, and management, and determines the threshold for the level of corresponding risk for each evaluation factor. To improve the reliability of the index weighting, a linear weighting method is adopted, which comprehensively considers subjective weights calculated by the analytic hierarchy process and objective weights calculated by the clustering weight method. Finally, the proposed SPA model is verified by using it to assess the structural safety risk of a heritage building adjacent to the Zhengzhou Metro Line Three. By extracting the field measured data at different survey points on the metro line, the risk levels of the heritage building in the shield tunneling process are evaluated, and the results verify the feasibility of the SPA model. The proposed SPA method can provide decision-making support for controlling risk on similar projects.

scholarly journals Safety risk assessment of heritage buildings in metro construction based on SPA theory: a case study in Zhengzhou, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Wang ◽  
Changming Yang ◽  
Lin Tian ◽  
Jiguang Lu ◽  
Fengwen Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Index System ◽  
Urban Rail Transit ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Heritage Buildings ◽  
Heritage Building

Abstract While the urban rail transit systems have been developed rapidly, the nearby heritage buildings and historic sites are facing possible threats of unexpected damages. In particular, a rail project has a potential impact on numerous heritage buildings and sites in an old city. Thus, to better protect these heritage buildings and sites, it is crucial for decision-makers to be able to rapidly and accurately evaluate these threats. Based on Set Pair Analysis (SPA) theory, this study developed a risk assessment model to assess the safety of heritage buildings adjacent to metro construction. In this model, the risk levels of adjacent heritage buildings are ranked. Moreover, this study establishes an assessment index system comprising 16 individual indexes among four categories related to heritage building, metro, soil, and management. The index system determines the interval values for each evaluation factor. To improve the reliability of the index weight, a linear weighting method was adopted. In this study, both subjective weights calculated via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and objective weights calculated by the Clustering Weight Method (CWM) are analyzed comprehensively. Moreover, a case study was conducted by applying the proposed assessment model into assessing the structural safety risk of a heritage building adjacent to the Zhengzhou Metro Line Three. It was found the results of the proposed model were consistent with the Matter-Element (ME) method. The proposed model can be used to provide decision-making support for controlling risk on similar projects.

Early Season Hurricane Risk Assessment: Climate-Conditioned HITS Simulation of North Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracks

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 559-575
Author(s):  
Jennifer Nakamura ◽  
Upmanu Lall ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Patrick A. Harr ◽  
Kyra McCreery
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Main Development ◽  
Development Region ◽  
Hurricane Risk

AbstractWe present a hurricane risk assessment model that simulates North Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and intensity, conditioned on the early season large-scale climate state. The model, Cluster-Based Climate-Conditioned Hurricane Intensity and Track Simulator (C3-HITS), extends a previous version of HITS. HITS is a nonparametric, spatial semi-Markov, stochastic model that generates TC tracks by conditionally simulating segments of randomly varying lengths from the TC tracks contained in NOAA’s Best Track Data, version 2, dataset. The distance to neighboring tracks, track direction, TC wind speed, and age are used as conditioning variables. C3-HITS adds conditioning on two early season, large-scale climate covariates to condition the track simulation: the Niño-3.4 index, representing the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) departure from climatology, and main development region, representing tropical North Atlantic SST departure from climatology in the North Atlantic TC main development region. A track clustering procedure is used to identify track families, and a Poisson regression model is used to model the probabilistic number of storms formed in each cluster, conditional on the two climate covariates. The HITS algorithm is then applied to evolve these tracks forward in time. The output of this two-step, climate-conditioned simulator is compared with an unconditional HITS application to illustrate its prognostic efficacy in simulating tracks during the subsequent season. As in the HITS model, each track retains information on velocity and other attributes that can be used for predictive coastal risk modeling for the upcoming TC season.

scholarly journals Safety risk assessment of heritage buildings in metro construction based on SPA theory: a case study in Zhengzhou, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Wang ◽  
Changming Yang ◽  
Lin Tian ◽  
Jiguang Lu ◽  
Fengwen Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Index System ◽  
Urban Rail Transit ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Heritage Buildings ◽  
Heritage Building

Abstract While the urban rail transit systems have been developed rapidly, the nearby heritage buildings and historic sites are facing possible threats of unexpected damages. In particular, a rail project has a potential impact on numerous heritage buildings and sites in an old city. Thus, to better protect these heritage buildings and sites, it is crucial for decision-makers to be able to rapidly and accurately evaluate these threats. Based on Set Pair Analysis (SPA) theory, this study developed a risk assessment model to assess the safety of heritage buildings adjacent to metro construction. In this model, the risk levels of adjacent heritage buildings are ranked. Moreover, this study establishes an assessment index system comprising 16 individual indexes among four categories related to heritage building, metro, soil, and management. The index system determines the interval values for each evaluation factor. To improve the reliability of the index weight, a linear weighting method was adopted. In this study, both subjective weights calculated via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and objective weights calculated by the Clustering Weight Method (CWM) are analyzed comprehensively. Moreover, a case study was conducted by applying the proposed assessment model into assessing the structural safety risk of a heritage building adjacent to the Zhengzhou Metro Line Three. It was found the results of the proposed model were consistent with the Matter-Element (ME) method. The proposed model can be used to provide decision-making support for controlling risk on similar projects.

Risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism in hospitalized surgical and non-surgical patients in the 4th Hungarian Antithrombotic Guidelines entitled “Diminution and Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism”

2010 ◽  
Vol 151 (34) ◽  
pp. 1365-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianna Dávid ◽  
Hajna Losonczy ◽  
Miklós Udvardy ◽  
Zoltán Boda ◽  
György Blaskó ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

A kórházban kezelt sebészeti és belgyógyászati betegekben jelentős a vénásthromboembolia-rizikó. Profilaxis nélkül, a műtét típusától függően, a sebészeti beavatkozások kapcsán a betegek 15–60%-ában alakul ki mélyvénás trombózis vagy tüdőembólia, és az utóbbi ma is vezető kórházi halálok. Bár a vénás thromboemboliát leggyakrabban a közelmúltban végzett műtéttel vagy traumával hozzák kapcsolatba, a szimptómás thromboemboliás események 50–70%-a és a fatális tüdőembóliák 70–80%-a nem a sebészeti betegekben alakul ki. Nemzetközi és hazai felmérések alapján a nagy kockázattal rendelkező sebészeti betegek többsége megkapja a szükséges trombózisprofilaxist. Azonban profilaxis nélkül marad a rizikóval rendelkező belgyógyászati betegek jelentős része, a konszenzuson alapuló nemzetközi és hazai irányelvi ajánlások ellenére. A belgyógyászati betegek körében növelni kell a profilaxisban részesülők arányát és el kell érni, hogy trombózisrizikó esetén a betegek megkapják a hatásos megelőzést. A beteg trombóziskockázatának felmérése fontos eszköze a vénás thromboembolia által veszélyeztetett betegek felderítésének, megkönnyíti a döntést a profilaxis elrendeléséről és javítja az irányelvi ajánlások betartását. A trombózisveszély megállapításakor, ha nem ellenjavallt, profilaxist kell alkalmazni. „A thromboemboliák kockázatának csökkentése és kezelése” című, 4. magyar antithromboticus irányelv felhívja a figyelmet a vénástrombózis-rizikó felmérésének szükségességére, és elsőként tartalmazza a kórházban fekvő belgyógyászati és sebészeti betegek kockázati kérdőívét. Ismertetjük a kockázatbecslő kérdőíveket és áttekintjük a kérdőívekben szereplő rizikófaktorokra vonatkozó bizonyítékokon alapuló adatokat.

Signature Analysis: Statistical Models and Their Application to FA

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.K. Lakshminarayan ◽  
S. Pabbisetty ◽  
O. Adams ◽  
F. Pires ◽  
M. Thomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Analysis ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Signature Analysis ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Reliability Engineering ◽  
Semiconductor Chips

Abstract This paper deals with the basic concepts of Signature Analysis and the application of statistical models for its implementation. It develops a scheme for computing sample sizes when the failures are random. It also introduces statistical models that comprehend correlations among failures that fail due to the same failure mechanism. The idea of correlation is important because semiconductor chips are processed in batches. Also any risk assessment model should comprehend correlations over time. The statistical models developed will provide the required sample sizes for the Failure Analysis lab to state "We are A% confident that B% of future parts will fail due to the same signature." The paper provides tables and graphs for the evaluation of such a risk assessment. The implementation of Signature Analysis will achieve the dual objective of improved customer satisfaction and reduced cycle time. This paper will also highlight it's applicability as well as the essential elements that need to be in place for it to be effective. Different examples have been illustrated of how the concept is being used by Failure Analysis Operations (FA) and Customer Quality and Reliability Engineering groups.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for the outbreak of grass carp hemorrhage

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song YANG ◽  
Shuqin WU ◽  
Ningqiu LI ◽  
Cunbin SHI ◽  
Guocheng DENG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grass Carp ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model
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