Model-Based Risk Assessment of Offshore Operations

Author(s):  
Christoph Läsche ◽  
Jan Pinkowski ◽  
Sebastian Gerwinn ◽  
Rainer Droste ◽  
Axel Hahn

Safety and dependability are major design objectives for offshore operations such as the construction of wind farms or oil and gas exploration. Today processes and related risks are typically described informally and process specification are neither reusable nor suitable for risk assessment. Here, we propose to use a specification language for processes. We integrate this specification language in a generic modeling approach in combination with an analysis tool and a tool to construct health, safety and environment (HSE) plans — a mandatory document for granting a construction/operation permit. Specifically, for each planned scenario a process is modeled, describing the detailed operation of the involved actors as well as the interaction with resources and environmental conditions. We enrich this process model with hazardous events which is facilitated by integration with an offshore operation generic hazard list, thereby giving access to expert knowledge for the specific situation to be planned. This in turn allows us to perform an automatic quantitative risk assessment using fault tree analysis. We exemplify our approach on a standard offshore operation of personnel transfer from an offshore building to another naval unit by modeling, annotating with hazards, performing the fault-tree analysis, and finally generating HSE plans.

Author(s):  
Hai-Long Zhu ◽  
Shan-Shan Liu ◽  
Yuan-Yuan Qu ◽  
Xiao-Xia Han ◽  
Wei He ◽  
...  

Risk assessment methods are often used in complex industrial systems to avoid risks and reduce losses. The existing methods have not effectively solved the problems of lack of evaluation data and the interpretability of the entire evaluation process. This paper proposes a new risk assessment model based on the belief rule base (BRB) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The FTA algorithm overcomes the difficulties of traditional BRB model in obtaining expert knowledge, clear indicators, and establishing logical relationships. This method establishes FTA rules based on the BRB model and expands the knowledge base through the FTA algorithm. A Bayesian network is applied as a conversion bridge between the FTA and BRB model. In addition, the model is optimized to reduce the uncertainty in the model. The method proposed is described by a case and its effectiveness is verified.


2019 ◽  
Vol 577 ◽  
pp. 123974 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Gachlou ◽  
Abbas Roozbahani ◽  
Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib

Author(s):  
Syamsul Bahri ◽  
Fatimah Fatimah ◽  
Saifuddin Muhammad Jalil ◽  
Amri Amri ◽  
Muhammad Ilham

A sterilizer is a pressurized steam vessel used to boil palm oil. The condition of the sterilizer at PT .X often emits steam at the door and body of the stew. Throughout 2020, there were 12 critical components that were frequently damaged, such as ball valve, actuator, exhaust valve, packing door, elbow, condensate nozzle, liner, pipe, condensate valve, strainer valve, pipe flange, and packing flange. Fault Tree Analysis is an analysis tool that graphically translates the combinations of errors that cause system failures. Reliability Block Diagram is a diagramming method for showing how reliability components contribute to the success or failure of a complex system. Based on the results of the failure calculation using fault tree analysis, the probability of failure of the horizontal sterilizer component is the ball valve 12.2%, exhaust valve 10.9% actuator 6%, door packing 0.24%, elbow 0.24%, condensate nozzle 4.8%, liner 8.61%, 0.25% pipe, 0.21% condensate valve, 4.4% filter valve, 0.22% pipe flange and 0.27% packing flange. The reliability value of the horizontal sterilizer from the calculation using the reliability block diagram is 85.69% if it operates for 8 hours, 62.93% if it operates for 27 hours, 39.6% if it operates for 54 hours, 13.34% if it operates for 117 hours. o'clock. o'clock. o'clock. hours and 1.81% when operating for 234 hours. To maintain reliability above 60%, the preventive maintenance schedule is: Every 80 hours of operation a door packing inspection is carried out. Every 234 hours of operation, elbow tubing and flanges are checked. Every 300 hours of operation, a pipe inspection is carried out. Every 450 operational hours an inspection is carried out on the ball valve, condensate nozzle, liner, actuator, and exhaust valve. Every 30 hours of operation, valve condensate, filter valves and packing flanges are checked.


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