A new risk assessment method based on belief rule base and fault tree analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2110114
Author(s):  
Hai-Long Zhu ◽  
Shan-Shan Liu ◽  
Yuan-Yuan Qu ◽  
Xiao-Xia Han ◽  
Wei He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Rule Base ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Belief Rule Base

Risk assessment methods are often used in complex industrial systems to avoid risks and reduce losses. The existing methods have not effectively solved the problems of lack of evaluation data and the interpretability of the entire evaluation process. This paper proposes a new risk assessment model based on the belief rule base (BRB) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The FTA algorithm overcomes the difficulties of traditional BRB model in obtaining expert knowledge, clear indicators, and establishing logical relationships. This method establishes FTA rules based on the BRB model and expands the knowledge base through the FTA algorithm. A Bayesian network is applied as a conversion bridge between the FTA and BRB model. In addition, the model is optimized to reduce the uncertainty in the model. The method proposed is described by a case and its effectiveness is verified.

Model-Based Risk Assessment of Offshore Operations

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Läsche ◽  
Jan Pinkowski ◽  
Sebastian Gerwinn ◽  
Rainer Droste ◽  
Axel Hahn
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Specification Language ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Offshore Operations

Safety and dependability are major design objectives for offshore operations such as the construction of wind farms or oil and gas exploration. Today processes and related risks are typically described informally and process specification are neither reusable nor suitable for risk assessment. Here, we propose to use a specification language for processes. We integrate this specification language in a generic modeling approach in combination with an analysis tool and a tool to construct health, safety and environment (HSE) plans — a mandatory document for granting a construction/operation permit. Specifically, for each planned scenario a process is modeled, describing the detailed operation of the involved actors as well as the interaction with resources and environmental conditions. We enrich this process model with hazardous events which is facilitated by integration with an offshore operation generic hazard list, thereby giving access to expert knowledge for the specific situation to be planned. This in turn allows us to perform an automatic quantitative risk assessment using fault tree analysis. We exemplify our approach on a standard offshore operation of personnel transfer from an offshore building to another naval unit by modeling, annotating with hazards, performing the fault-tree analysis, and finally generating HSE plans.

A novel structural safety assessment method of large liquid tank based on the belief rule base and finite element method

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2110216
Author(s):  
Yuan Chen ◽  
Zhijie Zhou ◽  
Lihao Yang ◽  
Guanyu Hu ◽  
Xiaoxia Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element Method ◽  
Finite Element ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Rule Base ◽  
Belief Rule Base ◽  
Element Method

The structural safety assessment of large liquid tanks (LLT) has attracted an extensive attention. As a typical gray box model, the belief rule base (BRB) model can handle qualitative information and quantitative data simultaneously, which is a suitable modeling tool for structural safety assessment. However, it is difficult to establish and train the BRB model when there is a lack of expert experience and fault samples of LLT. Therefore, a novel safety assessment model for LLT based on BRB and finite element method (FEM-BRB) is proposed in this paper. The FEM is introduced to construct the BRB model by combining expert knowledge and industry standards for the first time, which can effectively compensate for the lack of expert experience. The fault samples are generated in the mechanism simulation model under different working conditions. Based on the fault samples generated by the FEM and historical samples, the projection covariance matrix adaption evolution strategy (P-CMA-ES) optimization algorithm is then used to train the model, which further improves the structural safety assessment accuracy when lacking fault samples. A case study of three actual oil tanks in a coastal port is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness and advantage of the developed structural safety assessment method.

Comprehensive risk assessment of river basins using Fault Tree Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 577 ◽  
pp. 123974 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Gachlou ◽  
Abbas Roozbahani ◽  
Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Tree Analysis

Research on a Nonlinear Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment Method for Oil & Gas Pipeline Failure Based on Fault Tree Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 304-310
Author(s):  
Xue Wu ◽  
Ci Yuan Xiao ◽  
Xue Yan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Engineering Application ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Comprehensive Assessment ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Pipeline Failure

The combination method of fault tree analysis and nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive assessment method was proposed to make research of oil & gas pipeline failure .The common factors influencing oil & gas pipeline failure could be determined with fault tree analysis .However , the practical operated oil & gas pipeline often have some individual factors and fuzzy ones .Nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive assessment method could evaluate objectively based on evaluated factors sets and weight sets provided by fault tree analysis .The new model steps were listed by taking the example of oil & gas pipeline failure .The result indicates that the method is more reasonable and easier for engineering application , and the evaluation result is more with the objective reality.

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