scholarly journals Health Risk from the Use of Roof-Harvested Rainwater in Southeast Queensland, Australia, as Potable or Nonpotable Water, Determined Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

2010 ◽  
Vol 76 (22) ◽  
pp. 7382-7391 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Ahmed ◽  
A. Vieritz ◽  
A. Goonetilleke ◽  
T. Gardner
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Southeast Queensland

ABSTRACT A total of 214 rainwater samples from 82 tanks were collected in urban Southeast Queensland (SEQ) in Australia and analyzed for the presence and numbers of zoonotic bacterial and protozoal pathogens using binary PCR and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) analysis was used to quantify the risk of infection associated with the exposure to potential pathogens from roof-harvested rainwater used as potable or nonpotable water. Of the 214 samples tested, 10.7%, 9.8%, 5.6%, and 0.4% were positive for the Salmonella invA, Giardia lamblia β-giardin, Legionella pneumophila mip, and Campylobacter jejuni mapA genes, respectively. Cryptosporidium parvum oocyst wall protein (COWP) could not be detected. The estimated numbers of Salmonella, G. lamblia, and L. pneumophila organisms ranged from 6.5 × 101 to 3.8 × 102 cells, 0.6 × 10° to 3.6 × 10° cysts, and 6.0 × 101 to 1.7 × 102 cells per 1,000 ml of water, respectively. Six risk scenarios were considered for exposure to Salmonella spp., G. lamblia, and L. pneumophila. For Salmonella spp. and G. lamblia, these scenarios were (i) liquid ingestion due to drinking of rainwater on a daily basis, (ii) accidental liquid ingestion due to hosing twice a week, (iii) aerosol ingestion due to showering on a daily basis, and (iv) aerosol ingestion due to hosing twice a week. For L. pneumophila, these scenarios were (i) aerosol inhalation due to showering on a daily basis and (ii) aerosol inhalation due to hosing twice a week. The risk of infection from Salmonella spp., G. lamblia, and L. pneumophila associated with the use of rainwater for showering and garden hosing was calculated to be well below the threshold value of one extra infection per 10,000 persons per year in urban SEQ. However, the risk of infection from ingesting Salmonella spp. and G. lamblia via drinking exceeded this threshold value and indicated that if undisinfected rainwater is ingested by drinking, then the incidences of the gastrointestinal diseases salmonellosis and giardiasis are expected to range from 9.8 × 10° to 5.4 × 101 (with a mean of 1.2 × 101 from Monte Carlo analysis) and from 1.0 × 101 to 6.5 × 101 cases (with a mean of 1.6 × 101 from Monte Carlo analysis) per 10,000 persons per year, respectively, in urban SEQ. Since this health risk seems higher than that expected from the reported incidences of gastroenteritis, the assumptions used to estimate these infection risks are critically examined. Nonetheless, it would seem prudent to disinfect rainwater for use as potable water.

scholarly journals Microbial risk assessment of local handling and use of human faeces

2006 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Schönning ◽  
Therese Westrell ◽  
Thor Axel Stenström ◽  
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
Arne Bernt Hasling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Accidental Ingestion ◽  
Storage Container ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Local Use ◽  
Annual Risk

Dry urine-diverting toilets may be used in order to collect excreta for the utilisation of nutrients. A quantitative microbial risk assessment was conducted in order to evaluate the risks of transmission of infectious disease related to the local use of faeces as a fertiliser. The human exposures evaluated included accidental ingestion of small amounts of faeces, or a mixture of faeces and soil, while emptying the storage container and applying the material in the garden, during recreational stays to the garden, and during gardening. A range of pathogens representing various groups of microorganisms was considered. Results showed that 12-months' storage before use was sufficient for the inactivation of most pathogens to acceptable levels. When working or spending time in the garden the annual risk of infection by Ascaris was still slightly above 10-4 in these scenarios, although the incidence rate for Ascaris is very low in the population in question. Measures to further reduce the hygienic risks include longer storage, or treatment, of the faeces. The results can easily be extended to other regions with different incidence rates.

Monte Carlo Simulation Model for Predicting Salmonella Contamination of Chicken Liver as a Function of Serving Size for Use in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Oscar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Chicken Liver ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Serving Size ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Model

The first step in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is to determine distribution of pathogen contamination among servings of the food at some point in the farm-to-table chain. In the present study, distribution of Salmonella contamination among servings of chicken liver for use in QMRA was determined at meal preparation. A combination of five methods: 1) whole sample enrichment; 2) quantitative polymerase chain reaction; 3) cultural isolation; 4) serotyping; and 5) Monte Carlo simulation were used to determine Salmonella prevalence (P), number (N), and serotype for different serving sizes. In addition, epidemiological data were used to convert serotype data to virulence (V) values for use in QMRA. A Monte Carlo simulation model based in Excel and simulated with @Risk predicted Salmonella P, N, serotype, and V as a function of serving size from one (58 g) to eight (464 g) chicken livers. Salmonella P of chicken livers was 72.5% (58/80) per 58 g. Four serotypes were isolated from chicken livers: 1) Infantis (P = 28%, V = 4.5); 2) Enteritidis (P = 15%, V = 5); 3) Typhimirium (P = 15%, V = 4.8); and 4) Kentucky (P = 15%, V = 0.8). Median Salmonella N was 1.76 log per 58 g (range: 0 to 4.67 log/58 g) and was not affected ( P > 0.05) by serotype. The model predicted a non-linear increase ( P ≤ 0.05) of Salmonella P from 72.5% per 58 g to 100% per 464 g, minimum N from 0 log per 58 g to 1.28 log per 464 g, and median N from 1.76 log per 58 g to 3.22 log per 464 g. Regardless of serving size, predicted maximum N was 4.74 log, mean V was 3.9, and total N was 6.65 log per lot (10,000 chicken livers). The data acquired and model developed in this study fill an important data and modeling gap in QMRA for Salmonella and chicken liver.

scholarly journals Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Models for Consumption of Raw Vegetables Irrigated with Reclaimed Water

2006 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 3284-3290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Hamilton ◽  
Frank Stagnitti ◽  
Robert Premier ◽  
Anne-Maree Boland ◽  
Glenn Hale
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Reclaimed Water ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Crop Type ◽  
Annual Risk

ABSTRACT Quantitative microbial risk assessment models for estimating the annual risk of enteric virus infection associated with consuming raw vegetables that have been overhead irrigated with nondisinfected secondary treated reclaimed water were constructed. We ran models for several different scenarios of crop type, viral concentration in effluent, and time since last irrigation event. The mean annual risk of infection was always less for cucumber than for broccoli, cabbage, or lettuce. Across the various crops, effluent qualities, and viral decay rates considered, the annual risk of infection ranged from 10−3 to 10−1 when reclaimed-water irrigation ceased 1 day before harvest and from 10−9 to 10−3 when it ceased 2 weeks before harvest. Two previously published decay coefficients were used to describe the die-off of viruses in the environment. For all combinations of crop type and effluent quality, application of the more aggressive decay coefficient led to annual risks of infection that satisfied the commonly propounded benchmark of ≤10−4, i.e., one infection or less per 10,000 people per year, providing that 14 days had elapsed since irrigation with reclaimed water. Conversely, this benchmark was not attained for any combination of crop and water quality when this withholding period was 1 day. The lower decay rate conferred markedly less protection, with broccoli and cucumber being the only crops satisfying the 10−4 standard for all water qualities after a 14-day withholding period. Sensitivity analyses on the models revealed that in nearly all cases, variation in the amount of produce consumed had the most significant effect on the total uncertainty surrounding the estimate of annual infection risk. The models presented cover what would generally be considered to be worst-case scenarios: overhead irrigation and consumption of vegetables raw. Practices such as subsurface, furrow, or drip irrigation and postharvest washing/disinfection and food preparation could substantially lower risks and need to be considered in future models, particularly for developed nations where these extra risk reduction measures are more common.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars

2010 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 274-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. FRANZ ◽  
S. O. TROMP ◽  
H. RIJGERSBERG ◽  
H. J. van der FELS-KLERX
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Escherichia Coli O157 ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
The Public ◽  
E Coli

Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green vegetables in salad from salad bars in The Netherlands. Pathogen growth was modeled in Aladin (Agro Logistics Analysis and Design Instrument) using time-temperature profiles in the chilled supply chain and one particular restaurant with a salad bar. A second-order Monte Carlo risk assessment model was constructed (using @Risk) to estimate the public health effects. The temperature in the studied cold chain was well controlled below 5°C. Growth of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella was minimal (17 and 15%, respectively). Growth of L. monocytogenes was considerably greater (194%). Based on first-order Monte Carlo simulations, the average number of cases per year in The Netherlands associated the consumption leafy greens in salads from salad bars was 166, 187, and 0.3 for E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and L. monocytogenes, respectively. The ranges of the average number of annual cases as estimated by second-order Monte Carlo simulation (with prevalence and number of visitors as uncertain variables) were 42 to 551 for E. coli O157:H7, 81 to 281 for Salmonella, and 0.1 to 0.9 for L. monocytogenes. This study included an integration of modeling pathogen growth in the supply chain of fresh leafy vegetables destined for restaurant salad bars using software designed to model and design logistics and modeling the public health effects using probabilistic risk assessment software.

scholarly journals Improved methods for modelling drinking water treatment in quantitative microbial risk assessment; a case study of Campylobacter reduction by filtration and ozonation

2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. W. M. H. Smeets ◽  
Y. J. Dullemont ◽  
P. H. A. J. M. Van Gelder ◽  
J. C. Van Dijk ◽  
G. J. Medema
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Rare Events ◽  
Monitoring Data ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is increasingly applied to estimate drinking water safety. In QMRA the risk of infection is calculated from pathogen concentrations in drinking water, water consumption and dose response relations. Pathogen concentrations in drinking water are generally low and monitoring provides little information for QMRA. Therefore pathogen concentrations are monitored in the raw water and reduction of pathogens by treatment is modelled stochastically with Monte Carlo simulations. The method was tested in a case study with Campylobacter monitoring data of rapid sand filtration and ozonation processes. This study showed that the currently applied method did not predict the monitoring data used for validation. Consequently the risk of infection was over estimated by one order of magnitude. An improved method for model validation was developed. It combines non-parametric bootstrapping with statistical extrapolation to rare events. Evaluation of the treatment model was improved by presenting monitoring data and modelling results in CCDF graphs, which focus on the occurrence of rare events. Apart from calculating the yearly average risk of infection, the model results were presented in FN curves. This allowed for evaluation of both the distribution of risk and the uncertainty associated with the assessment.

scholarly journals Incorporating parameter uncertainty into Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA)

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret Donald ◽  
Kerrie Mengersen ◽  
Simon Toze ◽  
Jatinder P.S. Sidhu ◽  
Angus Cook
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Simulation Modeling for Microbial Risk Assessment

1998 ◽  
Vol 61 (11) ◽  
pp. 1560-1566 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL H. CASSIN ◽  
GREG M. PAOLI ◽  
ANNA M. LAMMERDING
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Complex Function ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Adverse Health Outcomes ◽  
Complex Processes ◽  
Microbial Environment

Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alterative to computing analytical Solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

Assessment of microbial infection risks posed by ingestion of water during domestic water use and full-contact recreation in a mid-southern African region

2004 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 301-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Steyn ◽  
P. Jagals ◽  
B. Genthe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Single Exposure ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Full Contact ◽  
Contact Recreation

A customised Water-related Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (WRQMRA) process was used to determine risk of infection to water ingested by users in the south-eastern Free State, South Africa. The WRQMRA consisted of an observed-adverse-effect-level approach (OAELA) and a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The OAELA was based on the occurrence of E. coli in the study waters to determine the possible risk of infection and the QMRA probable risk of infection by salmonellae. The WRQMRA was applied to recreational surface resource waters as well as waters from an unprotected spring and waters from the treated municipal supply that were stored in containers for domestic purposes. E. coli numbers were measured against expected infection levels expressed in water quality guidelines, while Salmonella counts were calculated to give the probable infection risk (Pi). Ingestion was based on intake volumes compiled for the various water uses. E. coli occurred in numbers <106 in the surface waters, while the untreated spring and treated supply water contained E. coli of <102 and <101 respectively. Salmonella occurred in numbers of <103 in recreational waters, and <10-1 in water used for domestic purposes. A single exposure to the mean (as well as 95th percentile) risk was calculated using a β-Poisson dose-response model at ingestion volumes of 100 mL (for full-contact recreation) and 1,318 mL (for domestic water use). Both the OAELA and the QMRA approaches indicated a risk of infection to recreational and domestic water users, even for a single exposure event, with the OAELA either over- or under-estimating the risk of infection for singular exposure events. This indicated that this method, used on its own, could not reliably predict a realistic risk of infection. It is recommended that the full WRQMRA process be used, and further developed to address several uncertainties that became evident during this study.

Enteric virus presence in green vegetables and associated irrigation waters in a rural area from Argentina. A quantitative microbial risk assessment

LWT ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 111201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prez Verónica Emilse ◽  
Victoria Matías ◽  
Martínez Laura Cecilia ◽  
Giordano Miguel Oscar ◽  
Masachessi Gisela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Rural Area ◽  
Enteric Virus ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Irrigation Waters
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