scholarly journals Co-learning during the co-creation of a dengue early warning system for the health sector in Barbados

2022 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. e007842
Author(s):  
Anna M Stewart-Ibarra ◽  
Leslie Rollock ◽  
Sabu Best ◽  
Tia Brown ◽  
Avriel R Diaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Climate And Health

Over the past decade, the Caribbean region has been challenged by compound climate and health hazards, including tropical storms, extreme heat and droughts and overlapping epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Early warning systems (EWS) are a key climate change adaptation strategy for the health sector. An EWS can integrate climate information in forecasting models to predict the risk of disease outbreaks several weeks or months in advance. In this article, we share our experiences of co-learning during the process of co-creating a dengue EWS for the health sector in Barbados, and we discuss barriers to implementation as well as key opportunities. This process has involved bringing together health and climate practitioners with transdisciplinary researchers to jointly identify needs and priorities, assess available data, co-create an early warning tool, gather feedback via national and regional consultations and conduct trainings. Implementation is ongoing and our team continues to be committed to a long-term process of collaboration. Developing strong partnerships, particularly between the climate and health sectors in Barbados, has been a critical part of the research and development. In many countries, the national climate and health sectors have not worked together in a sustained or formal manner. This collaborative process has purposefully pushed us out of our comfort zone, challenging us to venture beyond our institutional and disciplinary silos. Through the co-creation of the EWS, we anticipate that the Barbados health system will be better able to mainstream climate information into decision-making processes using tailored tools, such as epidemic forecast reports, risk maps and climate-health bulletins, ultimately increasing the resilience of the health system.

scholarly journals Co-developing climate services for public health: stakeholder needs and perceptions for the prevention and control ofAedes-transmitted diseases in the Caribbean

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra ◽  
Moory Romero ◽  
Avery Q. J. Hinds ◽  
Rachel Lowe ◽  
Roché Mahon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Climate And Health ◽  
The Caribbean

AbstractBackgroundSmall island developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean region are challenged with managing the health outcomes of a changing climate. Health and climate sectors have partnered to co-develop climate services to improve the management of these diseases, for example, through the development of climate-driven early warning systems. The objective of this study was to identify health and climate stakeholder perceptions and needs in the Caribbean, with respect to the development of climate services for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, chikungunya, and Zika).MethodsStakeholders included public decision makers and practitioners from the climate and health sectors at the regional (Caribbean) level and from the countries of Dominica and Barbados. From April to June 2017, we conducted interviews (n=41), surveys (n=32), and national workshops with stakeholders. Survey responses were tabulated and audio recordings were transcribed and analyzed using qualitative coding to identify responses by research topic, country/region, and sector.ResultsHealth practitioners indicated that their jurisdiction is currently experiencing an increased risk of diseases transmitted byAe. aegyptidue to climate variability, and most anticipated that this risk will increase in the future. National health sectors reported financial limitations and a lack of technical expertise in geographic information systems (GIS), statistics, and modeling, which constrained their ability to implement climate services for arboviruses. National climate sectors were constrained by a lack of personnel. Stakeholders highlighted the need to strengthen partnerships with the private sector, academia, and civil society. They identified a gap in local research on climate-arbovirus linkages, which constrained the ability of the health sector to make informed decisions. Strategies to strengthen the climate-health partnership included a top-down approach by engaging senior leadership, multi-lateral collaboration agreements, national committees on climate and health, and shared spaces of dialogue. Mechanisms for mainstreaming climate services for health operations to control arboviruses included climate-health bulletins and an online GIS platform that would allow for regional data sharing and the generation of spatiotemporal epidemic forecasts.ConclusionsThese findings support the creation of interdisciplinary and intersectoral communities of practices and the co-design of climate services for the Caribbean public health sector. By fostering the effective use of climate information within health policy, research and practice, nations will have greater capacity to adapt to a changing climate.

scholarly journals PARTISIPASI MASYARAKAT DALAM ADAPTASI BENCANA DI KABUPATEN PADANG PARIAMAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Syarfina Mahya Nadila ◽  
Annisa Meutia Ratri
Keyword(s):  
Social Participation ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Social Adaptation ◽  
Food Bank ◽  
Literature Study

 ABSTRAKKabupaten Padang Pariaman merupakan wilayah yang rentan terhadap bencana, baik alam maupun ekologis.  Masyarakat di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman tidak hanya menghadapi kerentanan dari sisi ekologis tetapi juga sosial ekonomi. Kompleksitas sosial, ekonomi dan budaya masyarakat menunjukan pentingnya strategi komprehensif dalam meningkatkan ketahanan masyarakat terhadap bencana. Tulisan ini bermaksud untuk mengelaborasi partisipasi masyarakat dalam strategi adaptasi bencana dalam rangka mewujudkan wilayah yang tangguh dari bencana di wilayah Padang Pariaman. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif yang berbasis data primer yang bersumber dari wawancara mendalam dan observasi yang juga dilengkapi dengan data dan literatur sekunder.  Penelitian ini mendapati  upaya adaptasi  bencana berbasiskan pada partisipasi masyarakat. Peta kerentanan, living food bank, kelompok siaga bencana, serta early warning system merupakan salah satu ruang partisipasi masyarakat dalam kolaborasi kolektif dengan pemerintah atau organisasi masyarakat sipil. Penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa adaptasi sosial merupakan aspek penting untuk mendukung kebelangsungan livelihood masyarakat dan adaptasi bencana yang inklusif. Kata Kunci: Partisipasi masyarakat; Adaptasi; Bencana; Padang Pariaman ABSTRACT Padang Pariaman Regency is highly vulnerable to disasters.  People in the regency face significant socio-economic  and  ecological challenges. It is  importance to have comprehensive strategies that consist the complexity in social, culture, and economics of society. This research aims to elaborate social participation as disaster adaptation strategy to foster  resiliency in the Padang Pariaman area. This research used qualitative as a method. Data collected both from primary (in-depth  interview and observation) and secondary data ( desk and literature study). This research found that vulnerability maps, living food bank, disaster preparedness groups, and early warning systems are the spaces for community participation to be as strategy to adapt the disaster collectively among stakeholders in government, people and civil society. Further, This research shows that social adaptation is an important aspect to support community livelihood sustainability and inclusive disaster adaptation.  Keywords: Social Participation; Adaptation; Disaster; Padang Pariaman 

scholarly journals Comparative Study on Early Warning Methods of Infectious Diseases

2021 ◽  
Vol 251 ◽  
pp. 03084
Author(s):  
Song-nian Hu ◽  
Xiao Cheng ◽  
Dan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Major epidemics of infectious diseases will not only endanger people’s lives and property, but also cause panic and social unrest. Therefore, it is particularly important to establish an infectious disease early warning system and take effective measures in time to prevent infectious disease outbreaks. The article summarizes the relevant definitions of infectious disease early warning system, domestic and foreign development status, infectious disease early warning models and methods, and aims to provide references for the establishment of infectious disease early warning systems.

scholarly journals Brief communication "Landslide Early Warning System: toolbox and general concepts"

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Intrieri ◽  
G. Gigli ◽  
N. Casagli ◽  
F. Nadim
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
End Users ◽  
Flow Chart ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Limited Experience ◽  
Practical Guidelines ◽  
Landslide Early Warning

Abstract. We define landslide Early Warning Systems and present practical guidelines to assist end-users with limited experience in the design of landslide Early Warning Systems (EWSs). In particular, two flow chart-based tools coming from the results of the SafeLand project (7th Framework Program) have been created to make them as simple and general as possible and in compliance with a variety of landslide types and settings at single slope scale. We point out that it is not possible to cover all the real landslide early warning situations that might occur, therefore it will be necessary for end-users to adapt the procedure to local peculiarities of the locations where the landslide EWS will be operated.

scholarly journals Communication architecture of an early warning system

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2215-2228 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Angermann ◽  
M. Guenther ◽  
K. Wendlandt
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Satellite Communication ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Communication Architecture ◽  
Design And Implementation ◽  
Communication Links

Abstract. This article discusses aspects of communication architecture for early warning systems (EWS) in general and gives details of the specific communication architecture of an early warning system against tsunamis. While its sensors are the "eyes and ears" of a warning system and enable the system to sense physical effects, its communication links and terminals are its "nerves and mouth" which transport measurements and estimates within the system and eventually warnings towards the affected population. Designing the communication architecture of an EWS against tsunamis is particularly challenging. Its sensors are typically very heterogeneous and spread several thousand kilometers apart. They are often located in remote areas and belong to different organizations. Similarly, the geographic spread of the potentially affected population is wide. Moreover, a failure to deliver a warning has fatal consequences. Yet, the communication infrastructure is likely to be affected by the disaster itself. Based on an analysis of the criticality, vulnerability and availability of communication means, we describe the design and implementation of a communication system that employs both terrestrial and satellite communication links. We believe that many of the issues we encountered during our work in the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009) on the design and implementation communication architecture are also relevant for other types of warning systems. With this article, we intend to share our insights and lessons learned.

scholarly journals On building early-warning systems for preventing the deterioration of financial institutions’ performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 194-202
Author(s):  
Adrian Costea
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Performance Dimensions ◽  
Som Model ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract This paper assesses the financial performance of Romania’s non-banking financial institutions (NFIs) using a neural network training algorithm proposed by Kohonen, namely the Self-Organizing Maps algorithm. The algorithm takes the financial dataset and positiones each observation into a self-organizing map (a two-dimensional map) which can be latter used to visualize the trajectories of an individual NFI and explain it based on different performance dimensions, such as capital adequacy, assets’ quality and profitability. Further, we use the map as an early-warning system that would accurately forecast the NFIs future performance (whether they would stay or be eliminated from the NFI’s Special Register three quarters into the future). The results are promising: the model is able to correctly predict NFIs’ performance movements. Finally, we compared the results of our SOM-based model with those obtained by applying a multivariate logit-based model. The SOM model performed worse in discriminating the NFIs’ performance: the performance classes were not clearly defined and the model lacked the interpretability of the results. In the contrary, the multivariate logit coefficients have nice interpretability and an individual default probability estimate is obtained for each new observation. However, we can benefit from the results of both techniques: the visualization capabilities of the SOM model and the interpretability of multivariate logit-based model.

Toward a typology of weak-signal early alert systems: functional early warning systems in the post-COVID age

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Černý ◽  
Martin Potančok ◽  
Elias Castro Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Peer Review ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Weak Signal ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human In The Loop ◽  
Early Alert Systems

PurposeThe study aims to expand on the concept of an early warning system (EWS) by introducing weak-signal detection, human-in-the-loop (HIL) verification and response tuning as integral parts of an EWS's design.Design/methodology/approachThe authors bibliographically highlight the evolution of EWS over the last 30+ years, discuss instances of EWSs in various types of organizations and industries and highlight limitations of current systems.FindingsProposed system to be used in the transforming of weak signals to early warnings and associated weak/strong responses.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to existing literature by presenting (1) novel approaches to dealing with some of the well-known issues associated with contemporary EWS and (2) an event-agnostic heuristic for dealing with weak signals.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/OIR-11-2020-0513.

Torrent Monitoring and Early Warning Systems Development

2022 ◽  
pp. 195-216
Author(s):  
Dejan Vasović ◽  
Ratko Ristić ◽  
Muhamed Bajrić
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Small Catchment ◽  
National Emergency

The level of sustainability of a modern society is associated with the ability to manage unwanted stressors from the environment, regardless of origin. Torrential floods represent a hydrological hazard whose frequency and intensity have increased in recent years, mainly due to climate changes. In order to effectively manage the risks of torrents, it is necessary to apply early warning systems, since torrential floods are formed very quickly, especially on the watercourses of a small catchment area. The early warning system is part of a comprehensive torrential flood risk management system, seen as a technical entity for the collection, transformation, and rapid distribution of data. Modern early warning systems are the successors of rudimentary methods used in the past, and they are based on ICT and mobile applications developed in relation to the requirements of end users. The chapter presents an analysis of characteristic examples of the use. The main conclusion of the chapter indicates the need to implement early warning systems in national emergency management structures.

KLR Approach as an Early Warning Indicator of Turkish Currency and Banking Crisis in 2000 and 2001

2016 ◽  
pp. 222-239
Author(s):  
Filiz Eryılmaz
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Window Approach ◽  
Global Growth

International organizations as private sector institutions started to develop Early Warning System [EWS] models aiming to anticipate whether and when individual countries can collide with a financial crisis. EWS models can be made most useful to help sustain global growth and maintain financial stability, especially in light of the lessons learned from the current and past crises. This paper proposes Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Turkish Currency and Banking Crisis in 2000 and 2001. To that end “KLR model” or “signaling window” approach developed by Kaminski, Lorezondo and Reinhart (1998) is testified in the empirical part of this research and applied to a sample of Turkey macroeconomic data for the 1998-2003 monthly periods.

scholarly journals Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 Years of Drought Early Warning Science Advances and Partnerships Promoting Global Food Security

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (6) ◽  
pp. 1011-1027 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Funk ◽  
Shraddhanand Shukla ◽  
Wassila Mamadou Thiaw ◽  
James Rowland ◽  
Andrew Hoell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Drought Early Warning

AbstractOn a planet with a population of more than 7 billion, how do we identify the millions of drought-afflicted people who face a real threat of livelihood disruption or death without humanitarian assistance? Typically, these people are poor and heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture and livestock. Most live in Africa, Central America, or Southwest Asia. When the rains fail, incomes diminish while food prices increase, cutting off the poorest (most often women and children) from access to adequate nutrition. As seen in Ethiopia in 1984 and Somalia in 2011, food shortages can lead to famine. Yet these slow-onset disasters also provide opportunities for effective intervention, as seen in Ethiopia in 2015 and Somalia in 2017. Since 1985, the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has been providing evidence-based guidance for effective humanitarian relief efforts. FEWS NET depends on a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) to help understand, monitor, model, and predict food insecurity. Here we provide an overview of FEWS NET’s DEWS using examples from recent climate extremes. While drought monitoring and prediction provides just one part of FEWS NET’s monitoring system, it draws from many disciplines—remote sensing, climate prediction, agroclimatic monitoring, and hydrologic modeling. Here we describe FEWS NET’s multiagency multidisciplinary DEWS and Food Security Outlooks. This DEWS uses diagnostic analyses to guide predictions. Midseason droughts are monitored using multiple cutting-edge Earth-observing systems. Crop and hydrologic models can translate these observations into impacts. The resulting information feeds into FEWS NET reports, helping to save lives by motivating and targeting timely humanitarian assistance.

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