scholarly journals External validation of simplified out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and cardiac arrest hospital prognosis scores in a Japanese population: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
pp. emermed-2020-210103
Author(s):  
Keita Shibahashi ◽  
Kazuhiro Sugiyama ◽  
Yusuke Kuwahara ◽  
Takuto Ishida ◽  
Atsushi Sakurai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Japanese Population ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Calibration Plot ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Lemeshow Test ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

BackgroundThe novel simplified out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (sOHCA) and simplified cardiac arrest hospital prognosis (sCAHP) scores used for prognostication of hospitalised patients have not been externally validated. Therefore, this study aimed to externally validate the sOHCA and sCAHP scores in a Japanese population.MethodsWe retrospectively analysed data from a prospectively maintained Japanese database (January 2012 to March 2013). We identified adult patients who had been resuscitated and hospitalised after intrinsic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) (n=2428, age ≥18 years). We validated the sOHCA and sCAHP scores with reference to the original scores in predicting 1-month unfavourable neurological outcomes (cerebral performance categories 3–5) based on the discrimination and calibration measures of area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test with a calibration plot, respectively.ResultsIn total, 1985/2484 (82%) patients had a 1-month unfavourable neurological outcome. The original OHCA, sOHCA, original cardiac arrest hospital prognosis (CAHP) and sCAHP scores were available for 855/2428 (35%), 1359/2428 (56%), 1130/2428 (47%) and 1834/2428 (76%) patients, respectively. The AUCs of simplified scores did not differ significantly from those of the original scores, whereas the AUC of the sCAHP score was significantly higher than that of the sOHCA score (0.88 vs 0.81, p<0.001). The goodness of fit was poor in the sOHCA score (ν=8, χ2=19.1 and Hosmer-Lemeshow test: p=0.014) but not in the sCAHP score (ν=8, χ2=13.5 and Hosmer-Lemeshow test: p=0.10).ConclusionThe performances of the original and simplified OHCA and CAHP scores in predicting neurological outcomes in successfully resuscitated OHCA patients were acceptable. With the highest availability, similar discrimination and good calibration, the sCAHP score has promising potential for clinical implementation, although further validation studies to evaluate its clinical acceptance are necessary.

scholarly journals External validation of simplified out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and cardiac arrest hospital prognosis scores in a Japanese population: A multicentre retrospective cohort study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keita Shibahashi ◽  
Kazuhiro Sugiyama ◽  
Yusuke Kuwahara ◽  
Takuto Ishida ◽  
Atsushi Sakurai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Japanese Population ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Calibration Plot ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Lemeshow Test ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Abstract Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a global medical problem. The newly-developed simplified out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (sOHCA) and cardiac arrest hospital prognosis (sCAHP) scores used for prognostication of patients admitted alive have not been validated externally. This study was, thus, conducted to externally validate sOHCA and sCAHP scores in a Japanese population. Methods Adult patients resuscitated and admitted to hospitals after intrinsic OHCA (n=2,428, age ≥18 years) were selected from a prospectively collected Japanese database (January 2012–March 2013). We validated sOHCA and sCAHP scores with reference to the original ones in predicting 1-month unfavourable neurological outcomes based on discrimination and calibration measures. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test with calibration plot, respectively. Results One-month unfavourable neurological outcome was observed in 82% of patients. Score availability was significantly higher in the simplified scores than in the original ones and was highest in the sCAHP score (76%). The AUCs of simplified scores were not significantly different from those of original ones, whereas the AUC of the sCAHP score was significantly higher than that of the sOHCA score (0.88 vs. 0.81, P <0.001). Goodness-of-fit was poor in the sOHCA score (ν= 8, χ 2 =19.1, Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P =0.014) but not in the sCAHP score (ν= 8, χ 2 =13.5, Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P =0.10). Conclusion Performance of original and simplified OHCA and CAHP scores in predicting neurological outcomes in successfully resuscitated OHCA patients were acceptable. Based on the highest availability, similar discrimination, and good calibration, the sCAHP score was the better candidate for clinical implementation. The validated predictive score can help patients’ families, healthcare providers, and researchers by accurately stratifying patients.

Abstract 10100: Early Prediction of Neurological Outcome at 30 Days After Return of Spontaneous Circulation From Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 144 (Suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Norihiro Nishioka ◽  
Daisuke Kobayashi ◽  
Takeyuki Kiguchi ◽  
Tetsuhisa Kitamura ◽  
Taku Iwami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Cerebral Performance Category ◽  
Spontaneous Circulation ◽  
Calibration Plot ◽  
Early Prediction ◽  
Return Of Spontaneous Circulation ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Validation Set ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Aim: To develop and validate a model for early prediction of neurological outcomes in non-traumatic out-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Methods: We analyzed the data of adult non-traumatic cardiac arrest patients who experienced return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and were admitted to the intensive care unit between January 2013 and December 2017 from the database of a multicenter registry. We allocated 1329 patients who were admitted from 2013 to 2015 to the derivation set and 1025 patients admitted from 2016 to 2017 to the validation set. The primary outcome was the dichotomized Cerebral Performance Category at 30 days. We developed 2 models: model 1 including variables except for laboratory data and model 2 including all variables with laboratory data immediately available after ROSC. Logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularization was used for model development. The C-statistics for discrimination, the prognostic ability, and calibration of the prediction model were assessed in the validation set. The reclassification of model 2 compared to model 1 was also evaluated by continuous net reclassification index (NRI). Results: The C-statistics [95% confidence intervals] of model 2 and 1 in validation set was 0.940 [0.921-0.959] and 0.935 [0.914-0.957], respectively (Figure 1). The calibration plot showed that both models were well-calibrated to observed neurological outcomes (Figure 2). The model 2 reclassified patients better than the model 1 (NRI: 0.663, p < 0.001). A web-based calculator based on these models was developed that allows clinicians to input the predictor variables needed for the probability of good or poor neurological outcomes (https://pcas-prediction.shinyapps.io/pcas_lasso/). Conclusion: The prediction tool including detailed in-hospital information showed good performance to predict neurological outcomes at 30 days in patients with ROSC after OHCA.

Abstract 18120: The Relationship Between Estimated Total Ischemic Time and Hospital Survival in Patients Suffering From Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Gunter ◽  
Rosa Banuelos ◽  
Pratik B Doshi
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Ischemic Time ◽  
Probability Of Survival ◽  
Hospital Survival ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Introduction: The incidence of out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in the U.S. is approximately 400,000 patients per year. Despite quality improvement efforts, overall survival after cardiac arrest remains poor, suggesting that there are other factors at play. One such variable is total ischemic time. This analysis was performed to determine the role of total ischemic time in hospital survival after OHCA. Methods: The OHCA records were queried from the cardiac arrest registry maintained by Houston Fire department from 2007-2012.Association between outcome and predictor variables was assessed using logistic regression. The outcome variable is defined as survival and discharge from the hospital. Our predictor variable of interest was Estimated Total Ischemic Time, which was calculated as the difference between time of Return of Spontaneous Circulation (ROSC) and Fire Rescue Dispatch time. The Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit test grouped by ten showed that the null (the model) should not be rejected (p = 0.8678). The final model includes Estimated Total Ischemic Time, age divided into categories by decade, presence of a shockable rhythm, and presence of a witness to the cardiac arrest. Results: The database consisted of 9,074 OHCA cases, of which 446 were included in the final analysis. According to our model, the data suggests there is a decrease in probability of survival as estimated total ischemic time increases. The odds of survival and discharge from the hospital of an OHCA patient with an estimated total ischemic time of 2 minutes is 0.956 (95%CI 0.936 - 0.977) times the odds of a patient whose estimated total ischemic time was 1 minute. Conclusion: Estimated Total Ischemic Time is a significant contributor to the probability of survival, however it is not the only one. This model exemplifies just one example of the importance of adjusting for both prehospital and hospital care in clinical decision-making and healthcare quality improvement.

scholarly journals Predictive Value of Estimated Lean Body Mass for Neurological Outcomes after Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Sung Eun Lee ◽  
Hyuk Hoon Kim ◽  
Minjung Kathy Chae ◽  
Eun Jung Park ◽  
Sangchun Choi
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Lean Body Mass ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Cerebral Performance Category ◽  
High Body Mass Index ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Background: Postcardiac arrest patients with a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) are critically ill, and high body mass index (BMI) is ascertained to be associated with good prognosis in patients with a critically ill condition. However, the exact mechanism has been unknown. To assess the effectiveness of skeletal muscles in reducing neuronal injury after the initial damage owing to cardiac arrest, we investigated the relationship between estimated lean body mass (LBM) and the prognosis of postcardiac arrest patients. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included adult patients with ROSC after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from January 2015 to March 2020. The enrolled patients were allocated into good- and poor-outcome groups (cerebral performance category (CPC) scores 1–2 and 3–5, respectively). Estimated LBM was categorized into quartiles. Multivariate regression models were used to evaluate the association between LBM and a good CPC score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was assessed. Results: In total, 155 patients were analyzed (CPC score 1–2 vs. 3–5, n = 70 vs. n = 85). Patients’ age, first monitored rhythm, no-flow time, presumed cause of arrest, BMI, and LBM were different (p < 0.05). Fourth-quartile LBM (≥48.98 kg) was associated with good neurological outcome of postcardiac arrest patients (odds ratio = 4.81, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10–25.55, p = 0.04). Initial high LBM was also a predictor of good neurological outcomes (AUROC of multivariate regression model including LBM: 0.918). Conclusions: Initial LBM above 48.98kg is a feasible prognostic factor for good neurological outcomes in postcardiac arrest patients.

Abstract 199: Pulmonary Embolism and Accidental Hypothermia Have a Favorable Outcome in Cardiac Arrest With PEA Treated by ECPR

Circulation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 138 (Suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinichi Ijuin ◽  
Akihiko Inoue ◽  
Nobuaki Igarashi ◽  
Shigenari Matsuyama ◽  
Tetsunori Kawase ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Neurological Outcome ◽  
Cerebral Performance Category ◽  
Accidental Hypothermia ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Good Outcome ◽  
Group B ◽  
Favorable Neurological Outcome ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Introduction: We have reported previously a favorable neurological outcome by extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) for out of hospital cardiac arrest. However, effects of ECPR on patients with prolonged pulseless electrical activity (PEA) are unclear. We analyzed etiology of patients with favorable neurological outcomes after ECPR for PEA with witness. Methods: In this single center retrospective study, from January 2007 to May 2018, we identified 68 patients who underwent ECPR for PEA with witness. Of these, 13 patients (19%) had good neurological outcome at 1 month (Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Category (CPC):1-2, Group G), and 55 patients (81%) had unfavorable neurological outcome (CPC:3-5, Group B). We compared courses of treatment and causes/places of arrests between two groups. Results are expressed as mean ± SD. Results: Patient characteristics were not different between the two groups. Time intervals from collapse to induction of V-A ECMO were also not significantly different (Group G; 46.1 ± 20.2 min vs Group B; 46.8 ± 21.7 min, p=0.92). Ten patients achieved favorable neurological outcome among 39 (26%) with non-cardiac etiology. In cardiac etiology, only 3 of 29 patients (9%) had a good outcome at 1 month (p=0.08). In particular, 5 patients of 10 pulmonary embolism, and 4 of 4 accidental hypothermia responded well to ECPR with a favorable neurological outcome. Additionally, 6 of 13 (46%), who had in hospital cardiac arrest, had good outcome, whereas 7 of 55 (15%) who had out of hospital cardiac arrest, had good outcome (p=0.02). Conclusions: In our small cohort of cardiac arrest patients with pulmonary embolism or accidental hypothermia and PEA with witness, EPCR contributed to favorable neurological outcomes at 1 month.

Effects of Targeted Temperature Management in Patients with Post-Cardiac Arrest Syndrome after an Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Caused by Hanging: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study in Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryuichiro Kakizaki ◽  
Naofumi Bunya ◽  
Shuji Uemura ◽  
Takehiko Kasai ◽  
Keigo Sawamoto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Targeted Temperature Management ◽  
Temperature Management ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Post Cardiac Arrest Syndrome ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Abstract Background: Targeted temperature management (TTM) is recommended for unconscious patients after a cardiac arrest. However, its effectiveness in patients with post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS) by hanging remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the relationship between TTM and favorable neurological outcomes in patients with PCAS by hanging.Methods: This study was a retrospective analysis of the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) registry between June 2014 and December 2017 among patients with PCAS admitted to the hospitals after an OHCA caused by hanging. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the propensity score and to predict whether patients with PCAS by hanging receive TTM. We compared patients with PCAS by hanging who received TTM (TTM group) and those who did not (non-TTM group) using propensity score analysis.Results: A total of 199 patients with PCAS by hanging were enrolled in this study. Among them, 43 were assigned to the TTM group and 156 to the non-TTM group. Logistic regression model adjusted for propensity score revealed that TTM was not associated with favorable neurological outcome at 1-month (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.27–6.96). Moreover, no difference was observed in the propensity score-matched cohort (adjusted OR: 0, 73, 95% CI: 0.10–4.71) and in the inverse probability of treatment weighting-matched cohort (adjusted OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.15–2.69).Conclusions: TTM was not associated with increased favorable neurological outcomes at 1-month in patients with PCAS after OHCA by hanging.

scholarly journals External validation of multimodal termination of resuscitation rules for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients in the COVID-19 era

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haewon Jung ◽  
Mijin Lee ◽  
Jae Wan Cho ◽  
Sang Hun Lee ◽  
Suk Hee Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Life Support ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Advanced Life Support ◽  
Survival Outcomes ◽  
Shock Delivery ◽  
Treatment Protocols ◽  
Multicenter Observational Study ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Abstract Background: Futile resuscitation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients in the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 era can lead to risk of disease transmission and unnecessary transport. Various existing basic or advanced life support (BLS or ALS, respectively) rules for the termination of resuscitation (TOR) have been derived and validated in North America and Asian countries. This study aimed to evaluate the external validation of these rules in predicting the survival outcomes of OHCA patients in the COVID-19 era.Methods: This was a multicenter observational study using the WinCOVID-19 Daegu registry data collected during February 18–March 31, 2020. The subjects were patients who showed cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac etiology. The outcomes of each rule were compared to the actual patient survival outcomes. The sensitivity, specificity, false positive value (FPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) of each TOR rule were evaluated. Results: In total, 170 of the 184 OHCA patients were eligible and evaluated. TOR was recommended for 122 patients based on the international basic life support termination of resuscitation (BLS-TOR) rule, which showed 85% specificity, 74% sensitivity, 0.8% FPV, and 99% PPV for predicting unfavorable survival outcomes. When the traditional BLS-TOR rules and KoCARC TOR rule II were applied to our registry, one patient met the TOR criteria but survived at hospital discharge. With regard to the FPV (upper limit of 95% confidence interval <5%), specificity (100%), and PPV (>99%) criteria, only the KoCARC TOR rule I, which included a combination of three factors including not being witnessed by emergency medical technicians, presenting with an asystole at the scene, and not experiencing prehospital shock delivery or return of spontaneous circulation, was found to be superior to all other TOR rules. Conclusion: Among the previous nine BLS and ALS TOR rules, KoCARC TOR rule I was most suitable for predicting poor survival outcomes and showed improved diagnostic performance. Further research on variations in resources and treatment protocols among facilities, regions, and cultures will be useful in determining the feasibility of TOR rules for COVID-19 patients worldwide.

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