Evaluation of direct-to-angiography suite (DTAS) and conventional clinical pathways in stroke care: a simulation study

2021 ◽  
pp. neurintsurg-2021-018253
Author(s):  
Mehrad Bastani ◽  
Timothy G White ◽  
Gabriela Martinez ◽  
Joseph Ohara ◽  
Kinpritma Sangha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Care Pathway ◽  
Clinical Pathways ◽  
Stroke Care ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Angiography Suite ◽  
Time Savings ◽  
Conventional Ct ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundRapid time to reperfusion is essential to minimize morbidity and mortality in acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (LVO). We aimed to evaluate the workflow times when utilizing a direct-to-angiography suite (DTAS) pathway for patients with suspected stroke presenting at a comprehensive stroke center compared with a conventional CT pathway.MethodsWe developed a discrete-event simulation (DES) model to evaluate DTAS workflow timelines compared with a conventional CT pathway, varying the admission NIHSS score treatment eligibility criteria. Model parameters were estimated based on 2 year observational data from our institution. Sensitivity analyses of simulation parameters were performed to assess the impact of patient volume and baseline utilization of angiography suites on workflow times utilizing DTAS.ResultsSimulation modeling of stroke patients (SimStroke) demonstrated door-to-reperfusion time savings of 0.2–3.5 min (p=0.05) for a range of DTAS eligibility criteria (ie, last known well to arrival <6 hours and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale ≥6–11), when compared with the conventional stroke care pathway. Sensitivity analyses revealed that DTAS time savings is highly dependent on baseline utilization of angiography suites.ConclusionsThe results of the SimStroke model showed comparable time intervals for door-to-reperfusion for DTAS compared with a conventional stroke care pathway. However, the DTAS pathway was very sensitive to baseline angiography suite utilization, with even a 10% increase eliminating the advantages of DTAS compared with the conventional pathway. Given the minimal time savings modeled here, further investigation of implementing the DTAS pathway in clinical care is warranted.

Gastrostomy Tubes Placed in Children With Neurologic Impairment: Associated Morbidity and Mortality

2021 ◽  
pp. 088307382110001
Author(s):  
Jody L. Lin ◽  
Joseph Rigdon ◽  
Keith Van Haren ◽  
MyMy Buu ◽  
Olga Saynina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Tube Placement ◽  
Composite Outcome ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Neurologic Impairment ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Background: Gastrostomy tube (G-tube) placement for children with neurologic impairment with dysphagia has been suggested for pneumonia prevention. However, prior studies demonstrated an association between G-tube placement and increased risk of pneumonia. We evaluate the association between timing of G-tube placement and death or severe pneumonia in children with neurologic impairment. Methods: We included all children enrolled in California Children’s Services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2014, with neurologic impairment and 1 pneumonia hospitalization. Prior to analysis, children with new G-tubes and those without were 1:2 propensity score matched on sociodemographics, medical complexity, and severity of index hospitalization. We used a time-varying Cox proportional hazard model for subsequent death or composite outcome of death or severe pneumonia to compare those with new G-tubes vs those without, adjusting for covariates described above. Results: A total of 2490 children met eligibility criteria, of whom 219 (9%) died and 789 (32%) had severe pneumonia. Compared to children without G-tubes, children with new G-tubes had decreased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.55) but increased risk of the composite outcome (HR 1.21, CI 1.14-1.27). Sensitivity analyses using varied time criteria for definitions of G-tube and outcome found that more recent G-tube placement had greater associated risk reduction for death but increased risk of severe pneumonia. Conclusion: Recent G-tube placement is associated with reduced risk of death but increased risk of severe pneumonia. Decisions to place G-tubes for pulmonary indications in children with neurologic impairment should weigh the impact of severe pneumonia on quality of life.

scholarly journals SimpactCyan 1.0: An Open-source Simulator for Individual-Based Models in HIV Epidemiology with R and Python Interfaces

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jori Liesenborgs ◽  
Diana M Hendrickx ◽  
Elise Kuylen ◽  
David Niyukuri ◽  
Niel Hens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Hiv Treatment ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Hiv Epidemiology ◽  
Treatment And Prevention ◽  
Individual Based Models ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTSimpactCyan is an open-source simulator for individual-based models in HIV epidemiology. Its core algorithm is written in C++ for computational efficiency, while the R and Python interfaces aim to make the tool accessible to the fast-growing community of R and Python users. Transmission, treatment and prevention of HIV infections in dynamic sexual networks are simulated by discrete events. A generic “intervention” event allows model parameters to be changed over time, and can be used to model medical and behavioural HIV prevention programmes. First, we describe a more efficient variant of the modified Next Reaction Method that drives our continuous-time simulator. Next, we outline key built-in features and assumptions of individual-based models formulated in SimpactCyan, and provide code snippets for how to formulate, execute and analyse models in SimpactCyan through its R and Python interfaces. Lastly, we give two examples of applications in HIV epidemiology: the first demonstrates how the software can be used to estimate the impact of progressive changes to the eligibility criteria for HIV treatment on HIV incidence. The second example illustrates the use of SimpactCyan as a data-generating tool for assessing the performance of a phylodynamic inference framework.

scholarly journals Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study

BMC Medicine ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Carl A. B. Pearson ◽  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
High Uptake ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Physical Isolation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods. Methods We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing and ‘shielding’ (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in African populations, in particular by shifting the distribution of severity risk towards younger ages and increasing the case-fatality ratio. We also present sensitivity analyses for key model parameters subject to uncertainty. Results We predicted median symptomatic attack rates over the first 12 months of 23% (Niger) to 42% (Mauritius), peaking at 2–4 months, if epidemics were unmitigated. Self-isolation while symptomatic had a maximum impact of about 30% on reducing severe cases, while the impact of physical distancing varied widely depending on percent contact reduction and R0. The effect of shielding high-risk people, e.g. by rehousing them in physical isolation, was sensitive mainly to residual contact with low-risk people, and to a lesser extent to contact among shielded individuals. Mitigation strategies incorporating self-isolation of symptomatic individuals, moderate physical distancing and high uptake of shielding reduced predicted peak bed demand and mortality by around 50%. Lockdowns delayed epidemics by about 3 months. Estimates were sensitive to differences in age-specific social mixing patterns, as published in the literature, and assumptions on transmissibility, infectiousness of asymptomatic cases and risk of severe disease or death by age. Conclusions In African settings, as elsewhere, current evidence suggests large COVID-19 epidemics are expected. However, African countries have fewer means to suppress transmission and manage cases. We found that self-isolation of symptomatic persons and general physical distancing are unlikely to avert very large epidemics, unless distancing takes the form of stringent lockdown measures. However, both interventions help to mitigate the epidemic. Shielding of high-risk individuals can reduce health service demand and, even more markedly, mortality if it features high uptake and low contact of shielded and unshielded people, with no increase in contact among shielded people. Strategies combining self-isolation, moderate physical distancing and shielding could achieve substantial reductions in mortality in African countries. Temporary lockdowns, where socioeconomically acceptable, can help gain crucial time for planning and expanding health service capacity.

scholarly journals To GP or not to GP: a natural experiment in children triaged to see a GP in a tertiary paediatric emergency department (ED)

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 521-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurie Smith ◽  
Yajur Narang ◽  
Ana Belen Ibarz Pavon ◽  
Karl Edwardson ◽  
Simon Bowers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Care Pathway ◽  
Waiting Times ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Antibiotic Prescribing ◽  
Paediatric Hospital ◽  
Paediatric Emergency Department ◽  
Paediatric Emergency ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of integrating a general practitioner (GP) into a tertiary paediatric emergency department (ED) on admissions, waiting times and antibiotic prescriptions.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingAlder Hey Children’s NHS Foundation Trust, a tertiary paediatric hospital in Liverpool, UK.ParticipantsFrom October 2014, a GP was colocated within the ED, from 14:00 to 22:00 hours, 7 days a week. Children triaged green on the Manchester Triage System without any comorbidities were classed as ‘GP appropriate’. The natural experiment compared patients triaged as ‘GP appropriate’ and able to be seen by a GP between 14:00 and 22:00 hours (GP group) to patients triaged as ‘GP appropriate’ seen outside of the hours when a GP was available (ED group). Intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis was used to assess the main outcomes.Results5223 patients were designated as ‘GP appropriate’—18.2% of the total attendances to the ED over the study period. There were 2821 (54%) in the GP group and 2402 (46%) in the ED group. The median duration of stay in the ED was 94 min (IQR 63–141) for the GP group compared with 113 min (IQR 70–167) for the ED group (p<0.0005). Using the ITT analysis equivalent, we demonstrated that the GP group were less likely to: be admitted to hospital (2.2% vs 6.5%, OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.44), wait longer than 4 hours (2.3% vs 5.1%, OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.61) or leave before being seen (3.1% vs 5.7%, OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.70), but more likely to receive antibiotics (26.1% vs 20.5%, OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.56). Sensitivity analyses yielded similar results.ConclusionsIntroducing a GP to a paediatric ED service can significantly reduce waiting times and admissions, but may lead to more antibiotic prescribing. This study demonstrates a novel, potentially more efficient ED care pathway in the current context of rising demand for children’s emergency services.

An audit of the impact of implementation of a stroke care pathway in an acute teaching hospital

2007 ◽  
Vol 176 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Tan ◽  
B. Austin ◽  
M. Shaughnessy ◽  
M. McDonald ◽  
S. O’Keeffe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Teaching Hospital ◽  
Care Pathway ◽  
Stroke Care ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach – linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (4) ◽  
pp. 496-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. B. C. Wu ◽  
N. Chaiyakunapruk ◽  
C. Pratoomsoot ◽  
K. K. C. Lee ◽  
H. Y. Chong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pandemic Influenza ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Cost Utility ◽  
Cost Utility Analysis ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Decision Analytic Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Utility Analysis ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSimulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) – dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients’ quality of life. Integrating PK/PD–EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.

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