Deforestation mapping sampling designs for Canadian landscapes

Deforestation is the direct human-induced conversion of forest to nonforest land uses. It is important for nations to understand and report the extent of their deforestation. Because of the vastness of Canada’s forest and the rare and spatially diverse nature of its deforestation, a sampling approach in which deforestation is mapped and then scaled up to represent deforestation for different regions was needed. The effectiveness of different sample designs in capturing the area of deforestation was evaluated using a Monte Carlo approach in which alternate sample designs were applied to simulated forest landscapes representative of different regions and deforestation patterns in Canada. Sampling error as expressed by the standard error in the estimated deforestation level for the sample divided by actual deforestation of the simulated landscape was used as a measure of sample design performance. Results indicated that sampling error was dependent on the characteristics of the deforestation (e.g., amount, shape, size, and distribution). For example, as mean event size increases or the proportion of linear deforestation events (e.g., roads and corridors) decreases, the required sampling intensity to reach a certain level of sampling error increases, and landscapes with a small number of very large events required the largest sampling intensity. To achieve a relative sampling error target (standard error / sample mean) of 10%, given sample designs of square plots on a systematic grid, a sample of 15%–25% of a landscape will be required for most Canadian landscapes, given a 10-year mapping time frame (interval between samples) and assuming a deforestation rate of 0.025% per annum. With mapping over a 5-year period, the required sampling intensity rises to 20%–40%. Also discussed are the consequences of the sampling error of different designs on the uncertainty in estimated greenhouse gas emission resulting from deforestation.