The spatial scale of phase synchrony in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) production increased among southern New England nurseries in the 1990s

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 340-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P Manderson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New England ◽  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Winter Flounder ◽  
Nursery Ground ◽  
Phase Synchrony ◽  
Pseudopleuronectes Americanus ◽  
Southern New England ◽  
Nursery Production

The spatial scales at which the dynamics of subpopulations are synchronized affect regional population persistence and reflect the operational spatial scales of factors regulating populations. I examined phase synchrony in the fluctuations of age-0 winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) production among 19 southern New England (SNE), USA, coastal nurseries. From 1990 to 2004, nursery production was synchronized at scales up to ~200 km based on spatial trends in cross-correlations of first-differenced age-0 abundance time series. However, sliding window analysis of 1975–2005 time series collected in six nurseries ≤55 km apart in northern SNE indicated that synchrony increased from low to high values in the early 1990s. Synchrony in production also increased among three nurseries ≤65 km apart in southern SNE from 1984 to 2004. Thus, interannual fluctuations in nursery production appeared to become synchronized at coarser spatial scales throughout SNE during the 1990s. This coarsening of the spatial scale of control of winter flounder nursery production was coincident with an increase in the frequency of springs with warm temperatures believed to negatively affect early life history processes. Spatial synchronization of winter flounder nursery ground production could destabilize the age-class structure and population dynamics in the region.

Predicting Winter Flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) Catches by Time Series Analysis

1989 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 650-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Perry Jeffries ◽  
Aimee Keller ◽  
Stephen Hale
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
New England ◽  
Rhode Island ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Winter Flounder ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Pseudopleuronectes Americanus ◽  
Series Analysis

Long-term changes in catches of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) were compared at five locations within Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA and in three areas directly offshore. In the lower Bay, relative abundance decreased 86% during warming in the early 1970's, recovered briefly, and then declined to an all-time low in 1986. Time-series analysis successfully predicted a recovery in 1987. Year ahead predictions, based on annual models, had a maximum error of 14% (1986); monthly forecasts explained 62–72% of catch variation during the entire investigation; cumulative monthly error (forecast compared with actual over an annual cycle) was 11% in the Bay and 21% offshore. Commercial offshore catch and the fish retained on power plant intake screens in two major rivers showed the same 11-yr pattern of population fall and recovery detected in the lower Bay. Coherent behavior was also demonstrated by the similarity of random processes which generated the time-series data. Thus a single time-series model for southern New England winter flounder seems feasible.

Redefining spatial population structure of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus): implications for stock assessment and management

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (7) ◽  
pp. 1189-1200
Author(s):  
Matthew R. Siskey ◽  
Michael G. Frisk ◽  
Robert M. Cerrato ◽  
Karin E. Limburg
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
New England ◽  
Gulf Of Maine ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Winter Flounder ◽  
Pseudopleuronectes Americanus ◽  
Southern New England ◽  
And Migration

The southern New England – mid-Atlantic (SNE–MA) stock of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) collapsed in the 1990s without discernable recovery to date. Owing to the lack of recovery, consideration of population subcomponents, which are currently ignored in fisheries stock structure definitions, may be necessary for rebuilding. We used the otolith chemistry tracer manganese–calcium ratios (Mn/Ca) to estimate inshore- versus ocean-nursery contributions of 77.3%/22.7% in SNE–MA, 15.7%/84.3% in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), and 60.0%/40.0% in Georges Bank (GB). In addition, we used strontium–calcium ratios (Sr/Ca) to estimate migratory- and resident-contingent membership of nursery-classified fish. Across all stocks, 30.2% of fish were classified as bay residents, 25.2% as bay migrants, 25.8% as ocean residents, and 18.8% as ocean migrants. Finally, model selection indicated that both nursery-specific and contingent-specific growth models were more appropriate than a common model. Nursery-specific models exhibited increasing deviations in length with age. Contingent-specific model reflected moderate differences at the youngest ages but convergence at older ages. These findings are informative for the population structure and migration ecology of winter flounder; however, simulation is required to determine whether partial migration and substock structure are necessary inputs for sustainable fisheries management.

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