Predicting the identity and impact of future biological invaders: a priority for aquatic resource management

The identification and risk assessment of potential biological invaders would provide valuable criteria for the allocation of resources toward the detection and control of invasion threats. Yet, freshwater biologists have made few attempts at predicting potential invaders, apparently because such efforts are perceived to be costly and futile. We describe some simple, low-cost empirical approaches that would facilitate prediction and demonstrate their use in identifying high-risk species from an important donor region: the Ponto-Caspian (Black, Caspian, and Azov seas) basin. This region is the source of several freshwater organisms already invading North America, including the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha), quagga mussel (Dreissena bugensis), ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus), and round goby (Neogobius melanostomus). Based on a thorough literature review, we identify 17 additional Ponto-Caspian animals that have recent invasion histories and are likely to be transported overseas in ship ballast water; moreover, their broad salinity tolerance could allow them to survive an incomplete ballast-water exchange. These results suggest that, unless current vectors are more effectively controlled, the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence River system and other North American inland waterways will continue to receive and be impacted by invasive Eurasian species.