Calibrating predicted diameter distribution with additional information in growth and yield predictions

2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Kangas ◽  
Matti Maltamo
Keyword(s):  
Growth Models ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Forest Management Planning ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Tree Models ◽  
Diameter Distributions

Diameter distribution of the growing stock is essential in many forest management planning problems. The diameter distribution is the basis for predicting, for example, timber assortments of a stand. Usually the predicted diameter distribution is scaled so that the stem number (or basal area) corresponds to the measured value (or predicted future value), but it may be difficult to obtain a distribution that gives correct estimates for all known variables. Diameter distributions that are compatible with all available information can be obtained using an approach adopted from sampling theory, the calibration estimation. In calibration estimation, the original predicted frequencies are modified so that they respect a set of constraints, the calibration equations. In this paper, an example of utilizing diameter distributions in growth and yield predictions is presented. The example is based on individual tree growth models of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Calibration estimation was utilized in predicting the diameter distribution at the beginning of the simulation period. Then, trees were picked from the distribution and their development was predicted with individual tree models. In predicting the current stand characteristics, calibrated diameter distributions proved to be efficient. However, in predicting future yields, calibration estimation did not significantly improve the accuracy of the results.

Deriving Tree Diameter Growth and Probability of Survival Equations from Successive Diameter Distributions

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-35
Author(s):  
Thomas G. Matney ◽  
Emily B. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
General Procedure ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Statistical Probability ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
Tree Diameter ◽  
Growth And Yield Models ◽  
Diameter Distributions

Abstract Many growth and yield models have used statistical probability distributions to estimate the diameter distribution of a stand at any age. Equations for approximating individual tree diameter growth and survival probabilities from dbh can be derived from these models. A general procedure for determining the functions is discussed and illustrated using a loblolly pine spacing study. The results from the spacing study show that it is possible to define tree diameter growth and survival probability functions from diameter distributions with an accuracy sufficient to obtain a link between the individual tree and diameter growth and yield models.

scholarly journals The SOHARC Model System for Growth and Yield of Southern Hardwoods

2008 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 173-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Paul McTague ◽  
David O'Loughlin ◽  
Joseph P. Roise ◽  
Daniel J. Robison ◽  
Robert C. Kellison
Keyword(s):  
Tree Growth ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Permanent Plots ◽  
Red Maple ◽  
Yellow Poplar ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Individual Tree Growth

Abstract A system of stand level and individual tree growth-and-yield models are presented for southern hardwoods. These models were developed from numerous permanent growth-and-yield plots established across 13 states in the US South on 9 site types, in even-aged (age classes from 20 to 60 years), fully stocked, naturally regenerated mixed hardwood and mixed hardwood-pine stands. Nested plots (⅕ and ac) were remeasured at 5-year intervals. The system of permanent plots was established and maintained by private and public members in the North Carolina State University Hardwood Research Cooperative. Stand level models are presented for dominant height, survival, basal area prediction and projection, and the ingrowth component. Individual tree diameter growth and tree height models were constructed for the most common species: sweetgum, tupelo, yellow-poplar, blackgum, and red maple. All other species were grouped according to growth dynamics into four species groups using cluster analysis. A ranking variable was incorporated into the individual tree growth models to account for competition.

scholarly journals Prediction Comparison of Stand Parameters and Two Ecosystem Services through New Growth and Yield Model System for Mixed Nothofagus Forests in Southern Chile

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1236
Author(s):  
Paulo Moreno-Meynard ◽  
Sebastian Palmas ◽  
Salvador A. Gezan
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Tree Level ◽  
Yield Model ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Nothofagus Forests ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Stand Parameters

Forest managers need tools to predict the behavior of forests not only for the main stand parameters, such as basal area and volume, but also for ecosystem services such as timber volume and carbon sequestration. Useful tools to predict these parameters are growth and yield model systems with several possible options for modeling, such as the whole stand-level model, with or without diameter distribution generation, individual tree-level model, and compatibility models. However, those tools are scarce or developed mainly for forest plantations that are mostly located in the northern hemisphere. Thus, this study focuses on analyzing predictions of several growth and yield models built for native mixed Nothofagus forests from southern Chile, using the simulator Nothopack. A dataset of 19 permanent plots with three measurements were used for comparing the different models. Individual tree-level simulation presented the best goodness-of-fit statistics for stand parameters and ecosystem services. For example, the basal area gave an R2emp of 0.97 and 0.87 at 6 and 12 years of projection. However, the stand-level simulations with a generation of diameter distribution and both compatibility models showed satisfactory performance, both in accuracy and bias control. The simulator Nothopack, which has the capability of obtaining detailed outputs, is a useful tool to support management plans for these forest ecosystems.

scholarly journals Individual-Tree Basal Area Growth, Survival, and Total Height Models for Upland Hardwoods in the Boston Mountains of Arkansas

1998 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 184-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Murphy ◽  
David L. Graney
Keyword(s):  
Growth Models ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Permanent Plots ◽  
Test Model ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Basal Area Growth ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Tree Models ◽  
Quadratic Mean Diameter ◽  
Mean Differences

Abstract Models were developed for individual-tree basal area growth, survival, and total heights for different species of upland hardwoods in the Boston Mountains of north Arkansas. Data used were from 87 permanent plots located in an array of different sites and stand ages; the plots were thinned to different stocking levels and included unthinned controls. To test these three tree models, stand development for 5 and 10 yr were simulated in terms of stand basal area/ac, numbers of trees/ac, and quadratic mean diameter. Percent mean differences for the three variables indicated no serious biases. A long-term projection of 100 yr to test model reasonableness showed development that would be consistent with these stands. These equations provide forest managers the first upland hardwood individual-tree growth models specifically for this region. South. J. Appl. For. 22(3):184-192.

Comparing individual-tree growth models using principles of stand growth for Norway spruce, Scots pine, and European beech

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1006-1018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Vospernik ◽  
Robert A. Monserud ◽  
Hubert Sterba
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Scots Pine ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Individual Tree Growth ◽  
Volume Increment

We examined the relationship between thinning intensity and volume increment predicted by four commonly used individual-tree growth models in Central Europe (i.e., BWIN, Moses, Prognaus, and Silva). We replicated conditions of older growth and yield experiments by selecting 34 young, dense plots of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). At these plots, we simulated growth, with mortality only, to obtain the maximum basal area. Maximum basal area was then decreased by 5% or 10% steps using thinning from below. Maximum density varied considerably between simulators; it was mostly in a reasonable range but partly exceeded the maximum basal area observed by the Austrian National Forest Inventory or the self-thinning line. In almost all cases, simulated volume increment was highest at maximum basal area and then decreased with decreasing basal area. Critical basal area, at which 95% of maximum volume increment can be achieved, ranged from 0.46 to 0.96. For all simulators, critical basal area was lower for the more shade-tolerant species. It increased with age, except for Norway spruce, when simulated with the BWIN model. Age, where mean annual increment culminated, compared well with yield tables.

Properties of the quadratic mean diameter in balanced diameter distributions

1985 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 474-476
Author(s):  
Donald J. Weatherhead ◽  
Roger C. Chapman ◽  
John H. Bassman
Keyword(s):  
Stand Structure ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Tree Size ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Quadratic Mean ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
Mean Diameter ◽  
Quadratic Mean Diameter ◽  
Stand Basal Area ◽  
Diameter Distributions

Balanced diameter distributions are widely used to describe stand structure goals for residual growing stock in uneven-aged forests. The quadratic mean diameter is frequently used as a descriptor of a balanced diameter distribution. In this paper the quadratic mean diameter is shown to be independent of stand basal area for balanced diameter distributions with a common class width, maximum and minimum diameters, and de Liocourt's q ratio. Additionally it is shown that the quadratic mean diameter is relatively insensitive to changes in maximum tree size and q ratios for q ratios 1.5 and larger.

A Blind Spot in the Use of the Weibull Function for Modeling Diameter Distributions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Norman Goodwin
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Blind Spot ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Weibull Function ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Difference Statistic ◽  
Diameter Distributions

Abstract Diameter distribution models based on probability density functions are integral to many forest growth and yield systems, where they are used to estimate product volumes within diameter classes. The three-parameter Weibull function with a constrained nonnegative lower bound is commonly used because of its flexibility and ease of fitting. This study compared Weibull and reverse Weibull functions with and without a lower bound constraint and left-hand truncation, across three large unthinned plantation cohorts in which 81% of plots had negatively skewed diameter distributions. Near-optimal lower bounds for the unconstrained Weibull function were negative for negatively skewed data, and the left-truncated Weibull using these bounds was 14.2% more accurate than the constrained Weibull, based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. The truncated reverse Weibull fit dominant tree distributions 23.7% more accurately than the constrained Weibull, based on a mean absolute difference statistic. This work indicates that a blind spot may have developed in plantation growth modeling systems deploying constrained Weibull functions, and that left-truncation of unconstrained functions could substantially improve model accuracy for negatively skewed distributions.

scholarly journals Thinning Response and Potential Basal Area in a Mixed Sub-humid Low-elevation Oak-Hornbeam Forest

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias Neumann ◽  
Hubert Hasenauer
Keyword(s):  
Stand Structure ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Stem Density ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
A Site ◽  
Water Nutrients ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Competition for resources (light, water, nutrients, etc.) limits the size and abundance of alive trees a site can support. This carrying capacity determines the potential carbon sequestration in alive trees as well as the maximum growing stock. Lower stocking through thinning can change growth and mortality. We were interested in the relations between stand structure, increment and mortality using a long-unmanaged oak-hornbeam forest near Vienna, Austria, as case study. We expected lower increment for heavy thinned compared to unmanaged stands. We tested the thinning response using three permanent growth plots, whereas two were thinned (50% and 70% basal area removed) and one remained unmanaged. We calculated stand structure (basal area, stem density, diameter distribution) and increment and mortality of single trees. The heavy thinned stand had over ten years similar increment as the moderate thinned and unthinned stands. Basal area of the unthinned stand remained constant and stem density decreased due to competition-related mortality. The studied oak-hornbeam stands responded well even to late and heavy thinning suggesting a broad “plateau” of stocking and increment for these forest types. Lower stem density for thinned stands lead to much larger tree increment of single trees, compared to the unthinned reference. The findings of this study need verification for other soil and climatic conditions.

scholarly journals An Individual-Tree Growth and Yield Prediction System for Uneven-Aged Shortleaf Pine Stands

2000 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 112-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael M. Huebschmann ◽  
Lawrence R. Gering ◽  
Thomas B. Lynch ◽  
Onesphore Bitoki ◽  
Paul A. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Basal Area ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Pinus Echinata ◽  
Shortleaf Pine ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Basal Area Growth ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Pine Stands

Abstract A system of equations modeling the growth and development of uneven-aged shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) stands is described. The prediction system consists of two main components: (1) a distance-independent, individual-tree simulator containing equations that forecast ingrowth, basal-area growth, probability of survival, total and merchantable heights, and total and merchantable volumes and weights of shortleaf pine trees; and (2) stand-level equations that predict hardwood ingrowth, basal-area growth, and mortality. These equations were combined into a computer simulation program that forecasts future states of uneven-aged shortleaf pine stands. Based on comparisons of observed and predicted stand conditions in shortleaf pine permanent forest inventory plots and examination of the growth patterns of hypothetical stands, the simulator makes acceptable forecasts of stand attributes. South. J. Appl. For. 24(2):112-120.

scholarly journals Using JABOWA-3 for forest growth and yield predictions under diverse forest conditions of Nova Scotia, Canada

2012 ◽  
Vol 88 (06) ◽  
pp. 708-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Irfan Ashraf ◽  
Charles P.-A. Bourque ◽  
David A. MacLean ◽  
Thom Erdle ◽  
Fan-Rui Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nova Scotia ◽  
Model Prediction ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Forest Conditions ◽  
Forest Growth And Yield

Empirical growth and yield models developed from historical data are commonly used in developing long-term strategic forest management plans. Use of these models rests on an assumption that there will be no future change in the tree growing environment. However, major impacts on forest growing conditions are expected to occur with climate change. As a result, there is a pressing need for tools capable of incorporating outcomes of climate change in their predictions of forest growth and yield. Process-based models have this capability and may, therefore, help to satisfy this requirement. In this paper, we evaluate the suitability of an ecological, individual-tree-based model (JABOWA-3) in generating forest growth and yield projections for diverse forest conditions across Nova Scotia, Canada. Model prediction accuracy was analyzed statistically by comparing modelled with observed basal area and merchantable volume changes for 35 permanent sample plots (PSPs) measured over periods of at least 25 years. Generally, modelled basal area and merchantable volume agreed fairly well with observed data, yielding coefficients of determination (r2) of 0.97 and 0.94 and model efficiencies (ME) of 0.96 and 0.93, respectively. A Chi-square test was performed to assess model accuracy with respect to changes in species composition. We found that 83% of species-growth trajectories based on measured basal area were adequately modelled with JABOWA-3 (P > 0.9). Model-prediction accuracy, however, was substantially reduced for those PSPs altered by some level of disturbance. In general, JABOWA-3 is much better at providing forest yield predictions, subject to the availability of suitable climatic and soil information.

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