Climate Impacts on Agriculture in the United States: The Value of Past Observations

Author(s):  
Jerry L. Hatfield
2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 237-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Andrew Poyar ◽  
Nancy Beller-Simms

Abstract State and local governments in the United States manage a wide array of natural and human resources that are particularly sensitive to climate variability and change. Recent revelations of the extent of the current and potential climate impact in this realm such as with the quality of water, the structure of the coasts, and the potential and witnessed impact on the built infrastructure give these political authorities impetus to minimize their vulnerability and plan for the future. In fact, a growing number of subnational government bodies in the United States have initiated climate adaptation planning efforts; these initiatives emphasize an array of climate impacts, but at different scales, scopes, and levels of sophistication. Meanwhile, the current body of climate adaptation literature has not taken a comprehensive look at these plans nor have they questioned what prompts local adaptation planning, at what scope and scale action is being taken, or what prioritizes certain policy responses over others. This paper presents a case-based analysis of seven urban climate adaptation planning initiatives, drawing from a review of publicly available planning documents and interviews with stakeholders directly involved in the planning process to provide a preliminary understanding of these issues. The paper also offers insight into the state of implementation of adaptation strategies, highlighting the role of low upfront costs and cobenefits with issues already on the local agenda in prompting anticipatory adaptation.


2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 627-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah F. Trainor ◽  
F. Stuart Chapin ◽  
Henry P. Huntington ◽  
David C. Natcher ◽  
Gary Kofinas

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eileen Rintsch ◽  
Jessica L. McCarty

<p>Crop residue and rangeland burning is a common practice in the United States but verified ground-based estimates for the frequency of these fires is sparse. We present a comparison between known fire locations collected during the summer 2019 NOAA/NASA FIREX-AQ field campaign with several satellite-based active fire detections to estimate the occurrence of small-scale fires in agroecosystems. Many emissions inventories at the state-, country-, and global-level are driven by active fire detections and not burned area estimates for small fires in agroecosystems. The study area is focused on the southern Great Plains and Mississippi Delta of the United States. We combined fire occurrence data from 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (VIIRS), 1 km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and 2 km Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fires with 30 m land use data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Cropland Data Layer (CDL). The detections were compared to fires and land use validated in the field during the NOAA/NASA FIREX-AQ mission. GOES detected these fires at a higher frequency than MODIS or VIIRS. For example, MODIS detected 873 active fires and VIIRS detected 2,859, while GOES detected 13,634 active fires. Additionally, a large amount of the fires documented in the field, approximately 41%, were not detected by any satellite instrument used in the study. If GOES detections are excluded, approximately 5% of the documented fires were detected. This suggests that a large amount of cropland and rangeland burning are not detected by current active fire products from polar orbiting satellites like MODIS and VIIRS, with implications for regional air pollution monitoring, emissions inventories, and climate impacts of open burning.  </p>


Author(s):  
Hill and

Once regarded as a threat in the distant future, the impacts of climate change are now daily new stories. The introduction defines resilience and argues that resilience is urgently needed in the United States and other places to enable communities to cope with the climate impacts they are already experiencing, as well as with future impacts. Building resilience is not a substitute for reducing greenhouse gas emissons, but it can blunt some of the worst impacts, save lives, and protect the most vulnerable in society. Insufficient progress in cutting emissions has made the resilience imperative all the more urgent. The introduction, lastly, explains the authors’ motivations for writing the book and provides an overview of ten lessons essential for advancing climate resilience.


2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 495-515 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Drewniak ◽  
J. Song ◽  
J. Prell ◽  
V. R. Kotamarthi ◽  
R. Jacob

Abstract. The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types – maize, soybean, and spring wheat – into the coupled carbon–nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements for soybean, but not as well for maize. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in countries such as the United States, Argentina, and China, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation, in agreement with other modeling studies. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model – simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management practices. Results are encouraging, with improved representation of human influences on the land surface and the potentially resulting climate impacts.


2003 ◽  
Vol 16 (13) ◽  
pp. 2215-2231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven A. Mauget

Abstract Trend analysis is used frequently in climate studies, but it is vulnerable to a number of conceptual shortcomings. This analysis of U.S. climate division data uses an alternate approach. The method used here subjects time series of annual average temperature and total precipitation to tests of Mann–Whitney U statistics over moving sampling windows of intra- to multidecadal (IMD) duration. In applying this method to time series of nationally averaged annual rainfall, a highly significant incidence of wet years is found after the early 1970s. When applied to individual climate divisions this test provides the basis for a climate survey method that is more robust than linear trend analysis, and capable of objectively isolating the timing and location of major IMD climate events over the United States. From this survey, four such periods emerge between 1932 and 1999: the droughts of the 1930s and 1950s, a cool 1964–79 period, and wet–warm time windows at the end of the century. More circumstantial consideration was also given here to the state of ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the winter state of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and mean annual Northern Hemisphere surface temperature during those periods. Anecdotal evidence presented here suggests that wet years associated with warm-phase ENSO conditions and the positive phase of the PDO may have played a role in ending the drought periods of the 1930s and 1950s. Conversely, the La Niña–like climate impacts found here during the late 1940s to mid-1950s, and the increased incidence of cold phase ENSO and negative phase PDO conditions during that time, suggests connections between that ocean state and severe drought. Significant late-century warmth was found mainly in the western United States after the mid-1980s, but no evidence of a cooling trend was evident in the southeast, as reported elsewhere. The late-century wet regime appears to have occurred in two phases, with wetness confined to the east during 1972–79, and more concentrated in the southwest and central United States during 1982–99.


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