ASYMMETRIC RESPONSE OF DISAGGREGATED IMPORT DEMAND TO EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS: A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
KHURRUM S. MUGHAL ◽  
SADDAM ILYAS ◽  
YASIR TARIQ MOHMAND ◽  
FAHEEM ASLAM ◽  
MUKHTAR-UL- HASAN
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Consumer Goods ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Capital Goods ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements

Net importing countries are very susceptible to changes in the value of their currency. Pakistan, being a small open economy, faces a constant pressure in its current account and BOP, which leads to unavoidable stress on its exchange rate. Exchange rate movements affect the cost of imports directly which have been studied extensively in empirical literature. However, these studies ignore the possibility of asymmetric effects of exchange rate and its impact on import demand in Pakistan. An appreciation in exchange rate may have a different impact on demand for imports than depreciations depending upon the level of rigidity in consumer preferences as well as the availability of substitutes for consumer goods, capital goods and raw materials. We use quarterly data of Pakistan’s consumer goods, capital goods and raw material imports from 2005:Q1 to 2018:Q4 and employ a relatively recent econometric methodology, namely, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) technique. The results confirm the existence of asymmetric impact of exchange rate in the long-run. The appreciation of currency has more pronounced impact in increasing imports relative to the depreciation of it in decreasing imports. There are further differences of this effect within imports across consumer goods, capital goods and raw materials. We present policy implications of this asymmetric effect of exchange rate on disaggregated consumer imports.

scholarly journals Environmental Tax Reform and the “Double Dividend” Hypothesis in a Small Open Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhibo Zhou ◽  
Weiguo Zhang ◽  
Xinxin Pan ◽  
Jiangfeng Hu ◽  
Ganlin Pu
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Consumer Goods ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Family Income ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Double Dividend ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Pigouvian Tax ◽  
Tax Rate

In this paper, we build and analyze a general equilibrium model to evaluate the effects of environment tax reform on a small open economy in a “suboptimal environment” with existing tax distortions. We then use the macroeconomic data from the Chongqing Municipality in China to conduct simulations to empirically test our analytic results. Our main findings include the followings. First, an increase in environmental tax rate can effectively reduce the use of polluting consumer goods by households as well as investment in polluting factors by enterprises. Hence, an increase in environmental tax rate can improve environmental quality and obtain “environmental dividend”. Second, an increase in environmental tax rate can negatively impact employment, family income and economic growth. Hence, there is no “non-environmental dividend” effect. Third, an increased environmental tax rate has both substitution effect and income effect on household consumption. On the one hand, it motivates households to substitute polluting consumer goods with clean consumer goods. On the other hand, it lowers the total consumption level of households. Fourth, we show that the “double dividend” hypothesis on environmental tax is invalid. And the optimal environmental tax under the suboptimal environment is lower than the Pigouvian tax rate. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of our results.

scholarly journals Changing Perspectives on Exchange Rates: Theory and Policy Implications

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Perry Warjiyo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
International Finance ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
External Sector

This paper reviews theoretical and empirical perspectives pertaining to the nature and  impacts of exchange rate movements on macroeconomic conditions, and their fundamental ramifications on macroeconomic and monetary policies. In particular, we show that, with increasing speed and scope of financial globalization and cross-border capital flows, the view on exchange rate has been changing from trade flows to financial asset views. Exchange rate movements have been exhibiting greater volatility beyond fundamentals and often deviate from equilibrium, driven by factors such as shifts in risk premia, investor preferences, as well as underlying economic and financial conditions. Policy implications from such a changing perspective on exchange rate have been pervasive. Exchange rate has not been singled out as an instrument for increasing a country’s external sector competitiveness in the modern literature of international finance. Rather, it constitutes an integral part of policy mix for coping with the impossible trinity of macroeconomic objectives in open economy, i.e. for benefiting from greater capital mobility while still maintaining stable exchange rate movements and domestic policy independence. The complete policy responses would include direct measures for stabilizing exchange rate, some forms of capital controls, and the implementation of inflation targeting framework of monetary policy.JEL Classification Numbers: E5, F3, F4Keywords: Monetary Policy, International Finance, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

scholarly journals A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Fanelli ◽  
Ludwig Straub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Pecuniary Externality ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Intervention Policy

Abstract We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.

Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nevin Cavusoglu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Consistent Finding ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Exchange Markets

Monetary authorities of many open economies have been regularly intervening in foreign exchange markets for years to limit volatility in exchange rates and/or push exchange rates back to some desired level. Such interventions have taken the form of actual and oral official interventions. Review of studies investigating the effectiveness of interventions reveals one major issue, related to the assumption that interventions are mostly sterilized. This assumption might lead to unreliable results when changes in interest rates and interventions are both used as explanatory variables for exchange rates. One major consistent finding is that intervention has a significant but short-lasting effect on exchange rates. Studies have reached this conclusion by investigating whether intervention has been effective in turning around the exchange rate over the few days, weeks or months following intervention(s). Only a few studies have investigated and provided evidence that intervention has been effective in limiting long swings in exchange rates. Studies testing for the effectiveness of interventions specifically through the signaling channel also provide evidence on the importance of macroeconomic variables for exchange rates. The significance of official intervention and official communication for exchange rate movements combined with the importance of macroeconomic variables for exchange rates provide a role for official intervention and parity announcement to influence exchange rate movements and limit the magnitude of exchange rate swings.

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