A Markov System Dynamics Approach for Repairable Systems Reliability Modeling

Author(s):  
Meesala Srinivasa Rao ◽  
V. N. A. Naikan

The study and analysis of repairable systems is an important topic in reliability. Analytical techniques become very complicated and unrealistic especially for modern complex systems. There have been attempts in the literature to evolve more realistic techniques using simulation approach for reliability analysis of systems. The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel Markov system dynamics (MSD) simulation framework for the reliability modeling and analysis of a repairable system. This paper proposes a hybrid approach called as MSD approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics simulation approach for reliability modeling. This approach will have the advantages of both Markov as well as system dynamics methodologies. The proposed framework is illustrated for a repairable two component system. The results of the simulation obtained in this work when compared with that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate that this novel MSD approach is an alternative approach for reliability modeling and analysis.

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 517-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srinivasa Rao M. ◽  
V.N.A Naikan

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid approach called as Markov System Dynamics (MSD) approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics (SD) simulation approach for availability modeling and to study the dynamic behavior of repairable systems. Design/methodology/approach – In the proposed approach the identification of the single unit repairable system all possible states has been performed by using the Markov approach. The remaining stages of traditional Markov analysis are highly mathematically intensive. The present work proposes a hybrid approach called as MSD approach which combines the Markov approach with SD simulation approach to overcome some of the limitations of Markov process in a simple and efficient way for availability modeling and to study the dynamic behavior of this system. Findings – The proposed framework is illustrated for a single unit repairable system. The worked out example shows the steady state point and also it gives the point, interval and steady state availabilities and also the dynamic behavior of the system. However this methodology can be extended easily for more complex multi-state maintainable systems. The results of the simulation when compared with that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate the proposed approach as an alternative approach for availability modeling of repairable systems. Practical implications – In many practical situations we require to find the time at which our system reaches steady state conditions for planning maintenance activities. The proposed MSD method in this paper is capable of finding this steady state point very easily. Originality/value – The proposed approach clearly indicates the time at which the system reaches its steady state and calculates the point, interval availabilities for planning maintenance activities. The different parties, i.e., engineers and machine operators, can jointly work with this model in order to understand the dynamic behavior of repairable systems.


During the continuous production process, the machines and their components will degrade after several cycles of operations. So there is a need to evaluate these systems for their availability with respect to time to predict their multistage degradation process. The solution procedures for the evaluation of availability of modern complex systems adopted earlier in the literature are very complicated and mathematical cumbersome. Simulation approach for availability analysis of systems has been considered in the literature to get realistic solutions. This work is aimed to buildup a new system dynamics simulation for the time dependent availability analysis of a multistage degraded system. In this a three state degraded system with repair is analyzed and validated. It is proved that that this analysis is an substitute method for transient availability analysis.


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