Availability modeling of repairable systems using Markov system dynamics simulation

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 517-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srinivasa Rao M. ◽  
V.N.A Naikan
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Dynamic Behavior ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Repairable Systems ◽  
Markov Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Point ◽  
Availability Modeling

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid approach called as Markov System Dynamics (MSD) approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics (SD) simulation approach for availability modeling and to study the dynamic behavior of repairable systems. Design/methodology/approach – In the proposed approach the identification of the single unit repairable system all possible states has been performed by using the Markov approach. The remaining stages of traditional Markov analysis are highly mathematically intensive. The present work proposes a hybrid approach called as MSD approach which combines the Markov approach with SD simulation approach to overcome some of the limitations of Markov process in a simple and efficient way for availability modeling and to study the dynamic behavior of this system. Findings – The proposed framework is illustrated for a single unit repairable system. The worked out example shows the steady state point and also it gives the point, interval and steady state availabilities and also the dynamic behavior of the system. However this methodology can be extended easily for more complex multi-state maintainable systems. The results of the simulation when compared with that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate the proposed approach as an alternative approach for availability modeling of repairable systems. Practical implications – In many practical situations we require to find the time at which our system reaches steady state conditions for planning maintenance activities. The proposed MSD method in this paper is capable of finding this steady state point very easily. Originality/value – The proposed approach clearly indicates the time at which the system reaches its steady state and calculates the point, interval availabilities for planning maintenance activities. The different parties, i.e., engineers and machine operators, can jointly work with this model in order to understand the dynamic behavior of repairable systems.

A Markov System Dynamics Approach for Repairable Systems Reliability Modeling

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (01) ◽  
pp. 1650004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meesala Srinivasa Rao ◽  
V. N. A. Naikan
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Analytical Techniques ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Repairable Systems ◽  
Markov Analysis ◽  
Reliability Modeling ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Markov System

The study and analysis of repairable systems is an important topic in reliability. Analytical techniques become very complicated and unrealistic especially for modern complex systems. There have been attempts in the literature to evolve more realistic techniques using simulation approach for reliability analysis of systems. The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel Markov system dynamics (MSD) simulation framework for the reliability modeling and analysis of a repairable system. This paper proposes a hybrid approach called as MSD approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics simulation approach for reliability modeling. This approach will have the advantages of both Markov as well as system dynamics methodologies. The proposed framework is illustrated for a repairable two component system. The results of the simulation obtained in this work when compared with that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate that this novel MSD approach is an alternative approach for reliability modeling and analysis.

Availability analysis of distillery plant using petri nets

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (10) ◽  
pp. 2373-2387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ankur Bahl ◽  
Anish Sachdeva ◽  
Rajiv Kumar Garg
Keyword(s):  
Petri Nets ◽  
Dynamic Behavior ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Plant Production ◽  
Maintenance Policy ◽  
Markov Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Availability Analysis ◽  
Critical Machine ◽  
Network Fault

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to prepare a methodology to evaluate availability analysis of distillery plant using Petri nets (PN). The effect of various failures, repair rate and availability of repair facilities on the system has been studied. Design/methodology/approach The PN model of a system is developed to study the dynamic behavior of the system under various working conditions. Availability analysis of the plant is presented taking into consideration of failure and repair rates of their subsystems and has been carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. Findings The bottle washing machine is the most critical machine from a maintenance point of view which has more compact on the system performance as compared to other machines. The availability analysis of distillery plant helps the management to adopt a suitable maintenance policy to improve upon plant production and plant availability. Originality/value The application of this proposed PN-based approach is very useful in finding the most critical subsystem and its effect on the performance of the system in terms of availability and plant production. Further, the advantage of the PN approach is that dynamic behavior of the system under consideration is modeled with graphic representation of the system and given distribution can be associated with the subsystems for analysis. The superiority of this approach over others, such as network, fault tree and Markov analysis, is outlined in the paper.

Prediction and improvement of labor productivity using hybrid system dynamics and agent-based modeling approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa Khanzadi ◽  
Farnad Nasirzadeh ◽  
Mostafa Mir ◽  
Pouya Nojedehi
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Hybrid Simulation ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Execution Strategy

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a hybrid simulation approach for predicting the value of labor productivity taking account of various continuous influencing factors and the interactions between different agents involved in the project. Design/methodology/approach The various continuous factors affecting labor productivity are simulated using system dynamics (SD). The heterogeneity of different agents involved in the project and their interactions is accounted using agent-based modelling (ABM). The developed ABM and SD models are finally integrated to simulate the value of labor productivity taking account of all the influencing factors. Findings The proposed hybrid simulation tool is implemented in a real project to evaluate its perfomance. The value of labor productivity is simulated by taking account of all the influencing factors. The most appropriate execution strategy is then selected using the developed hybrid SD-ABM approach to improve productivity. It is shown that the number of working groups and their movement patterns affect the severity of the groups’ interferences which will in turn affect the value of labor productivity. Practical implications This research helps project managers to predict and improve the value of labor productivity taking account of all the influencing factors. Originality/value It is believed that the proposed hybrid SD-ABM simulation approach offers a novel and robust tool for modeling labor productivity because the effects of various continuous influencing factors and the interactions between different agents are taken into account through the combination of SD and ABM. Many complex problems faced in construction projects involve interacting elements of a different nature, and the integration of SD with ideas from ABM offers potential to combine the strengths of the two methodologies to solve the problem.

A model of system limiting availability under imperfect maintenance

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzan Alaswad ◽  
Richard Cassady ◽  
Edward Pohl ◽  
Xiaoping Li
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Repair Process ◽  
The Body ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Imperfect Maintenance ◽  
Repairable Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Meta Model ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of the Kijima Type II imperfect repair model on the availability of repairable systems (RS). Since many individuals are interested in measuring the extent to which the system will be available after it has been run for a long time, the specific interest in this study is in the steady-state (limiting) availability behavior of such systems. Furthermore, the authors study the impact of age-based preventive maintenance (PM) on the RS performance. Design/methodology/approach Because of the complexity of the underlying assumptions of the Kijima Type II model, the authors use simulation modeling to estimate the system availability. Based on preliminary simulation results, the availability function achieves a steady-state value greater than zero. The system steady-state availability is then estimated from the simulation output by computing the average of the availability estimates beyond the initial transient period. Next, the authors develop a meta-model to convert the system reliability and maintainability parameters into the coefficients of the limiting availability estimate without the simulation effort. Using a circumscribed central composite experimental design, the authors confirm the accuracy of the meta-model. Findings The results show that the meta-model is robust, and provides good estimates of the system limiting availability. Also, the authors find that when using a Kijima Type II model for a system repair process, age-based PM can improve the steady-state availability value. Therefore, an optimal age-based PM policy that maximizes the system’s steady-state availability can be identified. Originality/value In practice, it is important to study the system steady-state availability because many individuals, i.e. engineers, are more interested in measuring the extent to which the system will be available after it has been run for a long time. Therefore, this study represents a significant addition to the body of knowledge related to virtual age modeling, in that it incorporates a Kijima type II model and considers system steady-state availability.

scholarly journals A Literature Review of Hybrid System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling in a Produced Water Management Context

Modelling ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-239
Author(s):  
Saeed P. Langarudi ◽  
Robert P. Sabie ◽  
Babak Bahaddin ◽  
Alexander G. Fernald
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Produced Water ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Agent Based

This paper explores the possibility and plausibility of developing a hybrid simulation method combining agent-based (AB) and system dynamics (SD) modeling to address the case study of produced water management (PWM). In southeastern New Mexico, the oil and gas industry generates large volumes of produced water, while at the same time, freshwater resources are scarce. Single-method models are unable to capture the dynamic impacts of PWM on the water budget at both the local and regional levels, hence the need for a more complex hybrid approach. We used the literature, information characterizing produced water in New Mexico, and our preliminary interviews with subject matter experts to develop this framework. We then conducted a systematic literature review to summarize state-of-the-art of hybrid modeling methodologies and techniques. Our research revealed that there is a small but growing volume of hybrid modeling research that could provide some foundational support for modelers interested in hybrid modeling approaches for complex natural resource management issues. We categorized these efforts into four classes based on their approaches to hybrid modeling. It appears that, among these classes, PWM requires the most sophisticated approach, indicating that PWM modelers will need to face serious challenges and break new ground in this realm.

Modeling of assembly systems with complex structures for throughput analysis during transients

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-271
Author(s):  
Yukan Hou ◽  
Yuan Li ◽  
Yuntian Ge ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Shoushan Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Fixed Point Theory ◽  
Point Theory ◽  
Assembly Systems ◽  
Complex Structures ◽  
Throughput Performance ◽  
Throughput Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Serial Production Lines ◽  
Transient And Steady State

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an analytical method for throughput analysis of assembly systems with complex structures during transients. Design/methodology/approach Among the existing studies on the performance evaluation of assembly systems, most focus on the system performance in steady state. Inspired by the transient analysis of serial production lines, the state transition matrix is derived considering the characteristics of merging structure in assembly systems. The system behavior during transients is described by an ergodic Markov chain, with the states being the occupancy of all buffers. The dynamic model for the throughput analysis is solved using the fixed-point theory. Findings This method can be used to predict and evaluate the throughput performance of assembly systems in both transient and steady state. By comparing the model calculation results with the simulation results, this method is proved to be accurate. Originality/value This proposed modeling method can depict the throughput performance of assembly systems in both transient and steady state, whereas most exiting methods can be used for only steady-state analysis. In addition, this method shows the potential for the analysis of complex structured assembly systems owing to the low computational complexity.

Steady-state point-defect diffusion profiles in solids during irradiation

1974 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nghi Q. Lam ◽  
Steven J. Rothman ◽  
Rudolf Sizmanns
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Point Defect ◽  
Defect Diffusion ◽  
State Point ◽  
Diffusion Profiles

Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Targets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.

Driving forces and structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 194-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongqi Feng ◽  
Tianshu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the driving forces and structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea. This paper gives the answers for the following questions: How do China’s final demands trigger the growth of its imports from Korea? And what’s the impact of China’s final demands on the import in different industries? Design/methodology/approach Based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output model and World Input-Output Table database, this paper constructs the non-competitive imports input-output (IO) table of China to Korea. According to this table, we can calculate the induced imports coefficient and comprehensive induced import coefficients of China’s four final demands for imports from Korea in the 56 industries in China. Findings Among the four driving forces, the strongest one is changes in inventories and valuables. The impact of final consumption expenditure and fixed capital formation is much lower than that of changes in inventories and valuables, but they have a broader impact for the 56 industries. This paper finds out the China’s import induction of the final demands to Korea peaked in 2005 and 2010 and decreased greatly in 2014, so the position of China as market provider for Korea will no longer rise substantially, contrarily it will be in a steady state. Originality/value First, this paper constructs the non-competitive IO table to analyze the market provider issues between two countries and provides practical ways and methods for studies on the issues of imports and market provider. Second, this paper investigates the different roles of four final demands on driving force of China as market provider for Korea and the structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea among 56 industries from 2000 to 2014.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document