scholarly journals Why Are China and the U.S. Not Destined to Fall into the “Thucydides’ Trap”?

2018 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 495-514
Author(s):  
Ling Shengli ◽  
Lv Huiyi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International System ◽  
Ancient Greece ◽  
The United States ◽  
Alliance Networks ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Heated Debate ◽  
Thucydides Trap ◽  
Political Security ◽  
Relative Decline

With the rise of China and relative decline of the United States, the question of whether both countries will fall into the so-called “Thucydides’ Trap” — an analogy to the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece — has triggered heated debate within international academia. By discussing the misunderstanding about the concept and conducting a three-level analysis of modern Sino-U.S. relations, this article identifies a few major flaws in making a simple analogy between the Athens-Sparta confrontation in ancient Greece and the Sino-U.S. relationship today. It concludes that a war between China and the United States is unlikely to take place thanks to the confines of the international system, the different nature of alliance networks from the ancient Greek period, the economic interdependence among countries, and the changing public attitude toward war. It also suggests both countries expand their economic, political, security and cultural cooperation, so as to ultimately overcome the “Thucydides’ Trap.”

scholarly journals O BRICS E O REORDENAMENTO DE PODER NA GEOPOLÍTICA MUNDIAL

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Pennaforte ◽  
Ricardo Luigi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Systems ◽  
World War ◽  
Systems Perspective ◽  
Relative Decline ◽  
Immanuel Wallerstein ◽  
Do So

The two first decades of the 21 st Century were marked by the recrudescence of two powerhouses, Russia and China. Given their important role on global geopolitics, these two countries took advantage of the gaps resulted from yet another crisis on the structure of global capitalism, which influenced the relative decline of the United States capacity to impose its will on the international system as they had been able to do so since the end of World War II. This article’s objective is to analyze the global geopolitical rearrangement due to a weakened United States which opened the possibility for the BRICS nations to emerge as possible sources of power. To reinforce this analysis, the world-systems perspective, (here on referred to as WSP) elaborated mainly by Immanuel Wallerstein and Giovanni Arrighi is used, as well as a geopolitical approach to provide a link to international relations theories. Therefore, this paper is divided on to four sections. The first one interrelates the geopolitical theories and those of the WSP. The second section is guided towards understanding the origins and fundamentals of the WSP. On the third section, an approach is made towards the motivations and the effects of the rearrangement of power on the world’s geopolitics. Finally, on the last section, the roles and opportunities that have arisen from the emergence of the BRICS nations on the international system are presented.

scholarly journals THE DECLINING HEGEMONY OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF CHINA: A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE ON POWER TRANSITION THEORY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasa'i Muhammad Gwadabe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
21St Century ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

The apparent eroding in the hegemonic power of the United States and the sustained growth of China has triggered debate as to whether the rise of China will be peaceful or conflictual. Structural realism posits that the world is characterised by the anarchic ordering principle in which there is no central authority sitting above the states. Therefore, the absence of a “leviathan” on the international system automatically makes every state equal on the system which created an atmosphere of competition for the maximisation of power for survival. On a similar line of reasoning, the Power Transition theory as a variant theory within realism postulates that when the international system is structured based on the principle of hierarchy, peace will reign. It means that when international relations are regulated and influenced by a dominant power, the international system becomes stable. But the emergence of a dissatisfied powerful nation to challenge the hegemon usually ends up in war. Based on this assumption, Power Transition theorists argued that the rise of China to rival the dominance of the United States could not be peaceful. The Power Transition theory has influenced many academics to have the belief that the two nations will end up in “Thucydides’ Trap”. This belief has aggravated the matter beyond the reasonable level and has instilled panic in the mind of foreign policymakers which could jeopardise world peace and international cooperation. Hence, this paper aims to critically evaluate the deficiency of the Power Transition theory in the 21st century in explaining the current United States-China relations and the prospect of peace or war between the two nations using process tracing. Accordingly, in this paper, it is argued that in the 21st century, an armed confrontation between the United States and China is highly unlikely. Because in today’s world, nations (including the United States and China) are intertwined by the forces of globalisation which created inexorable economic interdependence. Additionally, there is rapid advancement in military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction which came with the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Consequently, there is a need to revisit the Power Transition theory to accommodate contemporary factors. The inclusion of the current variables into the Theory will make it applicable and adequately fit in the discourse of international relations and global politics of the 21st-century international system.

scholarly journals Containment Amerika Serikat terhadap Fenomena Rise of China dalam Perspektif Hegemoni Realisme by Ari Arseno

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Setia Budhi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cold War ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
China’S Rise ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
China's Rise ◽  
Offensive Realism ◽  
Containment Strategy ◽  
The Cold War

This paper explains about the United States’ containment strategy towardChina, the argue that the United States’ strategy of containment aimsto contain the China’s rise phenomenon. After the Cold War, China hasdeveloped as a powerful country which has capability to threaten theUnited States’ ‘sole hegemon’ status. Containment is the chosen strategy tokeep Washington at the top of the hierarchy of international system. Theauthor divide this paper into three sections, the first show the relationsthe United States builds to make containment works. Then in the sectiontwo, the author explain the United States’ containment strategy withJohn Mearsheimer’s offensive realism theory. The last section, I end thispaper with conclusion that consists of important points of the paper.

scholarly journals Containment Amerika Serikat terhadap Fenomena Rise of China dalam Perspektif Hegemoni Realisme

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 167
Author(s):  
Ary Arseno
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cold War ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
China’S Rise ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
China's Rise ◽  
Offensive Realism ◽  
Containment Strategy ◽  
The Cold War

This paper explains about the United States’ containment strategy towardChina, the argue that the United States’ strategy of containment aimsto contain the China’s rise phenomenon. After the Cold War, China hasdeveloped as a powerful country which has capability to threaten theUnited States’ ‘sole hegemon’ status. Containment is the chosen strategy tokeep Washington at the top of the hierarchy of international system. Theauthor divide this paper into three sections, the first show the relationsthe United States builds to make containment works. Then in the sectiontwo, the author explain the United States’ containment strategy withJohn Mearsheimer’s offensive realism theory. The last section, I end thispaper with conclusion that consists of important points of the paper.

scholarly journals China’s Rise and Balance of Power Politics

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Han ◽  
T V Paul
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cold War ◽  
International System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Power Politics ◽  
Peaceful Rise ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Rise Of China

Abstract The post-Cold War international system, dominated by the United States, has been shaken by the relative downturn of the US economy and the simultaneous rise of China. China is rapidly emerging as a serious contender for America’s dominance of the Indo-Pacific. What is noticeable is the absence of intense balance of power politics in the form of formal military alliances among the states in the region, unlike state behaviour during the Cold War era. Countries are still hedging as their strategic responses towards each other evolve. We argue that the key factor explaining the absence of intense hard balancing is the dearth of existential threat that either China or its potential adversaries feel up till now. The presence of two related critical factors largely precludes existential threats, and thus hard balancing military coalitions formed by or against China. The first is the deepened economic interdependence China has built with the potential balancers, in particular, the United States, Japan, and India, in the globalisation era. The second is the grand strategy of China, in particular, the peaceful rise/development, and infrastructure-oriented Belt and Road Initiative. Any radical changes in these two conditions leading to existential threats by the key states could propel the emergence of hard-balancing coalitions.

State Representative: The Thucydides Trap and the Future of Global Governance

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 100-103
Author(s):  
Mohamed S. Helal
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
International System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
Great Power ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Political Drama ◽  
Thucydides Trap

Imagining an alternative institutional and normative architecture for global governance must proceed on the bases of an identification and understanding of the principal challenges facing the international system. In my view, the gravest challenge facing the international system, and perhaps the greatest political drama of the twenty-first century, is the ongoing shift in the global balance of power. As we move from a U.S.-led unipolar system to a world in which non-Western powers, particularly China, exercise greater influence in international affairs, the foremost priority for global governance is to ensure that this transition proceeds peacefully and to minimize the potential for Great Power conflict, especially between the United States and China.

Geopolitical shifts: Asia rising, America declining in the Middle East?

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 458-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Hudson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
The United States ◽  
China And India ◽  
Ocean Region ◽  
American Hegemony ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Relative Decline ◽  
The Rise Of China

This paper explores the implications of the tectonic shifts in the global balance of power marked by the rise of China and India and the relative decline of American hegemony across the Indian Ocean region – bordered as it is by five continents and some 40 countries. Located at the Middle Eastern end of it are the strategic chokepoints of the Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz, and at the Asian end the Strait of Malacca. However, while the Middle East and Asia are ever more interconnected across this third-largest ocean (and also along the reviving terrestrial ‘Silk Road’) through trade, finance and culture, the paper does not foresee an imminent confrontation in the Middle East between the rising Asian superpowers and the United States. Nonetheless, it is contended that President Barack Obama's dramatic ‘rebalancing’ project indicates that America intends to intensify its support for the small Asian states worried about China's assertiveness in the East and South China seas, while at the same time insisting that this ‘pivot’ does not mean a diminution of US power in the Middle East. For the time being, it seems that China and India are content to remain ‘free riders’ in the Middle East, uninterested in challenging the United States.

Japan's ‘Indo-Pacific’ question: countering China or shaping a new regional order?

2020 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kei Koga
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Strategic Uncertainty ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Regional Order ◽  
Relative Decline ◽  
National Defence

Abstract Japan's primary objective of the ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) strategy is to shape and consolidate regional order in the Indo-Pacific region based on the existing rules-based international order. The concept initially aimed to achieve two different objectives—shaping a regional order in the Indo-Pacific and ensuring the defence of Japan; however, Japan has gradually shifted its strategic focus onto the former, separating national defence from the FOIP concept, which reflects a change in the degree of its commitment to the two objectives. On the one hand, as its overall security strategy, Japan has determined to steadily enhance its national defence by increasing its own defence capabilities and strengthening the US–Japan alliance, while transforming its partnerships with like-minded states, such as Australia and India, into a diplomatic, and potentially military, alignment. This has been brought about by shifts in the regional balance of power, particularly the rise of China and the relative decline of the United States. On the other hand, as part of its FOIP strategy, Japan's attempts to build a new regional order in the Indo-Pacific region aim to defend the existing rules-based order established by the United States from challengers, particularly China. Yet, given the strategic uncertainty over Japan's international coalition-building efforts to create a new regional order, Japan has made its approach flexible; Tokyo is using its ambiguous FOIP concept to gauge other states' responses, understand their perspectives, and change its strategic emphases accordingly—so-called ‘tactical hedging’. Japan has pursued similar means to achieve the two key objectives. Nevertheless, the country's core interest, the defence of Japan, is more imperative than building a regional order in the Indo-Pacific region, and Japan faces different types of challenges in the future.

scholarly journals Possible scenarios for China-U.S. Relations by 2030

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Thanh Duy Vu
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Strategic Competition ◽  
Power Shift ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Heated Debate ◽  
Relative Decline ◽  
The U.S

<p>The rise of China and relative decline of the United States have caused a heated debate on a possible power shift in the Asia-Pacific. Whether China and the U.S. will become friends or enemies remains an unanswered question. This necessitates a thorough study on the future of China-U.S. relations and how they will affect the strategic chessboard in the region.  This Thesis examines the possible scenarios of China-U.S. relations by 2030. It argues that while the nature of China-U.S. relations is characterized by strategic competition, increasing interdependence between the two countries requires them to cooperate and co-exist with each other. If current trends continue, by 2030, the most likely scenarios for China-U.S. relations will, in descending order, be a continued China-U.S. strategic competition in peaceful co-existence, a new Cold War, a G-2 style condominium, and a predominance by China over the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific. The Thesis also finds that unlike the past, China-U.S. relations will be increasingly influenced by external factors and unpredictable events or crises. Each of the scenarios in China-U.S. relations will have a different but equally profound impact on the security architecture in the region, especially the ASEAN-led mechanisms for regional security cooperation. These results suggest that at times of power shifts between the U.S. and China, scenario-based planning can be a viable policy option for countries in the Asia-Pacific.</p>

scholarly journals CONTAINMENT AMERIKA SERIKAT TERHADAP FENOMENA RISE OF CHINA DALAM PERSPEKTIF HEGEMONI REALISME BY ARI ARSENO

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cold War ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
China’S Rise ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
China's Rise ◽  
Offensive Realism ◽  
Containment Strategy ◽  
The Cold War

This paper explains about the United States’ containment strategy towardChina, the argue that the United States’ strategy of containment aimsto contain the China’s rise phenomenon. After the Cold War, China hasdeveloped as a powerful country which has capability to threaten theUnited States’ ‘sole hegemon’ status. Containment is the chosen strategy tokeep Washington at the top of the hierarchy of international system. Theauthor divide this paper into three sections, the first show the relationsthe United States builds to make containment works. Then in the sectiontwo, the author explain the United States’ containment strategy withJohn Mearsheimer’s offensive realism theory. The last section, I end thispaper with conclusion that consists of important points of the paper.

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