scholarly journals THE DECLINING HEGEMONY OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF CHINA: A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE ON POWER TRANSITION THEORY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasa'i Muhammad Gwadabe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
21St Century ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

The apparent eroding in the hegemonic power of the United States and the sustained growth of China has triggered debate as to whether the rise of China will be peaceful or conflictual. Structural realism posits that the world is characterised by the anarchic ordering principle in which there is no central authority sitting above the states. Therefore, the absence of a “leviathan” on the international system automatically makes every state equal on the system which created an atmosphere of competition for the maximisation of power for survival. On a similar line of reasoning, the Power Transition theory as a variant theory within realism postulates that when the international system is structured based on the principle of hierarchy, peace will reign. It means that when international relations are regulated and influenced by a dominant power, the international system becomes stable. But the emergence of a dissatisfied powerful nation to challenge the hegemon usually ends up in war. Based on this assumption, Power Transition theorists argued that the rise of China to rival the dominance of the United States could not be peaceful. The Power Transition theory has influenced many academics to have the belief that the two nations will end up in “Thucydides’ Trap”. This belief has aggravated the matter beyond the reasonable level and has instilled panic in the mind of foreign policymakers which could jeopardise world peace and international cooperation. Hence, this paper aims to critically evaluate the deficiency of the Power Transition theory in the 21st century in explaining the current United States-China relations and the prospect of peace or war between the two nations using process tracing. Accordingly, in this paper, it is argued that in the 21st century, an armed confrontation between the United States and China is highly unlikely. Because in today’s world, nations (including the United States and China) are intertwined by the forces of globalisation which created inexorable economic interdependence. Additionally, there is rapid advancement in military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction which came with the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Consequently, there is a need to revisit the Power Transition theory to accommodate contemporary factors. The inclusion of the current variables into the Theory will make it applicable and adequately fit in the discourse of international relations and global politics of the 21st-century international system.

scholarly journals THE RISE OF CHINA A THREAT TO US HEGEMONY

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Fahim Khan , Anwar Ali , Dr. Hafiz Hammaduddin
Keyword(s):  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
The Political ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Us Hegemony ◽  
The Rise Of China ◽  
Peace And War

In this article, there is a brief discussion on how the rising of China's state created a major threat for the United States Hegemony. According to Power Transition Theory (PTT), power is central in understanding the international system as a relative power to demonstrate the prerequisite for peace and war in the international system. So, power is basically an ability to impose on or convince a revolutionary act to comply with demands. The study is a qualitative analysis of the grounded facts and previously produced documents and researches. With the document analysis it is evident that both the countries work on the mutual interests, there is a low possibility of actual war like situation on any of the political or economic grounds between China and the US. China can be considered as an economic superpower if it peruse all its economic expansion plans, on the other hand US will remain on top on the political or military fronts.

scholarly journals The Rise of China in Global Politics: Is a Peaceful Power Transition Possible?

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-38
Author(s):  
Francisco Cabral ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States Of America ◽  
World Order ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Global Politics ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

This article seeks to cover the Dynamics between China and the United States of America through the perspective of Power Transition Theory. This analysis aims to dispute the notion that the nature of Power Transitions has a tendency towards bellicism between the Actors in question. Through the study of the theoretical matrix behind China’s internal and external politics, this article establishes how Beijing has accumulated a power that’s as deep and prolific as it is dependent on the very international order that its precepts appear to denounce. Keywords: Power Transition; Balance of Power; World Order; Pluralism; Solidarism

scholarly journals Power Transition Theory Revisited: When Rising China Meets Dissatisfied United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 317-341
Author(s):  
Serafettin Yilmaz ◽  
Wang Xiangyu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
The Status ◽  
Rising Power ◽  
The U.S

Dissatisfaction is a major concept in power transition theory, which postulates that a rapidly rising power tends to be dissatisfied with the international system and would thus attempt to reform or replace it, whereas the hegemonic power would, by default, be satisfied with and work to maintain the status quo. This paper, however, offers an alternative outlook on the reigning-rising power dynamics by examining the conditions for and implications of hegemonic dissatisfaction and rising power satisfaction. It argues that although China, as a potential systemic challenger harboring grievances against the existing global regimes, has been a recurrent subject for studies, it is the United States, the established hegemon, that appears increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo. The U.S. dissatisfaction is informed by a set of internal and external factors often justified with a reference to China as a challenger, and is manifested in a number of anti-system strategies, including unconventional diplomatic rhetoric, as well as withdrawal from various international institutions or attempts to undermine them. The U.S. discontent, as contrasted with China’s satisfaction as a rising power, has a number of potential geopolitical and economic implications at the bilateral, regional, and global levels, endangering the viability and sustainability of the universally accepted political and economic regimes.

The Power-Transition Discourse and China’s Rise

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Chan
Keyword(s):  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Relationships ◽  
Peloponnesian War ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Power Shift ◽  
Specific Concept

The idea of power transition, or power shift, has recently been much in vogue in scholarly, policy, and even popular discourse. It has, for example, motivated a resurgent interest in the power-transition theory and the danger of the so-called Thucydides trap. China’s recent rise has especially motivated an interest in these topics, engendering concerns about whether this development means that China is on a collision course with the United States. These concerns stem from the proposition that the danger of a system-destabilizing war increases when a rising power catches up to a declining hegemon and challenges the latter’s preeminent position in the international system. Thucydides’s famous remark about the origin of the Peloponnesian War, claiming that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable” in ancient Greece, has frequently been invoked to support this view. Whereas power shift is a generic term referring to any change in the balance of capabilities between two or more states, power transition is a more specific concept pointing to a reversal of positions whereby a rising latecomer overtakes a previous dominant power in the international system (or at least when this latecomer approaches power parity with the dominant power). Power-transition theory presents a contemporary version of Thucydides’s explanation of the Peloponnesian War. It calls attention to the changing power relationships among the world’s major states and provides a seemingly cogent framework to understand the dynamics that can produce war between these states and their respective allies. A careful reader will immediately find the preceding paragraph unsatisfactory as it contains several important ambiguities. For instance, what do we mean by “major states” or “great powers,” and what do we have in mind when we refer to changes in their relative “power”? Also, does the power-transition theory claim that war is likely to break out when there is a change in the identity of the world’s most powerful country? Or does it also say that war is likely to occur even in the absence of a late-rising state overtaking, and therefore displacing, an incumbent hegemon? If so, how closely does the late-rising state have to match the incumbent’s power capabilities before the power-transition theory predicts a war between them? Would the latecomer have to reach at least 80%, 90%, or even 95% of the incumbent’s power before an approximate parity between the two is achieved? Does the power-transition theory pertain only to the relationship between the world’s two most powerful states, or does it apply to other states? And if power transition is a necessary but insufficient condition for war, what are the other pertinent variables and their interaction effects with power shifts? Finally, what do we mean by war or systemic war? The answers to these questions are not self-evident. How they are dealt with—or not—is in itself suggestive of the power relations in the world being studied by scholars and these scholars’ positions in this world and their relations to it.

Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China

2003 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Lemke ◽  
Ronald L. Tammen
Keyword(s):  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

Conditional Convergence and the Rise of China: A Political Economy Approach to Understanding Global Power Transitions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Beckley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Conditional Convergence ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Global Power ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Rich Countries ◽  
The Rise Of China

Abstract Many scholars predict that China will soon challenge the United States for global primacy. This prediction is largely based on power transition theory, which assumes that rising challengers inevitably “converge” economically and militarily with reigning hegemons. Economists, however, have shown that convergence is a conditional process: sometimes poor countries grow faster than rich countries, but sometimes they fall further behind. Determining whether a US-China power transition will occur in the years ahead, therefore, requires specifying the drivers of long-term economic growth and assessing each country's growth prospects in light of these factors. This article does exactly that. Drawing on recent research in economics, I show that there are three main growth drivers—geography, institutions, and demography—and that the United States scores highly across these factors whereas China suffers from critical weaknesses. These results suggest that a US-China power transition is unlikely.

The Reality of 21st Century International Relations

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
21St Century ◽  
International System ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nation States ◽  
To Come

This chapter will highlight contemporary issues plaguing the international system and the actors (nation-states) involved. The chapter begins by detailing the rising nationalism that fomented into insurrection on January 6, 2021 at the United States Capitol building. The chapter will take a deeper look into the 21st century world order and provide foresight into the chapters to come.

Introduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Congyan Cai
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
International Law ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
International Legal Order ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Research Structure

This chapter mainly aims to introduce the research background and research structure of The Rise of China and International Law: Taking Chinese Exceptionalism Seriously. It first explains why the rise of China and, accordingly, the engagement of China and international legal order are critical for the configuration of international relations in the twenty-first century, especially for great powers like the United States, which demonstrates the academic importance of this book. Then, by examining the arguments of authorities of international relations and international law, the book shows how the perception of scholars of the rise of China, especially the relationship between the rise of China and international law, has changed in the past several decades. It also introduces the arguments of governments and leaders of China and the United States as to how international law matters to the rise of China and how international law may be used to engage the rise of China. Finally, it explains how the book is structured.

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