Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Embedding for Joint Crowd Flow and Transition Predictions

Crowd mobility prediction, in particular, forecasting flows at and transitions across different locations, is essential for crowd analytics and management in spacious environments featured with large gathering. We propose GAEFT, a novel crowd mobility analytics system based on the multi-task graph attention neural network to forecast crowd flows (inflows/outflows) and transitions. Specifically, we leverage the collective and sanitized campus Wi-Fi association data provided by our university information technology service and conduct a relatable case study. Our comprehensive data analysis reveals the important challenges of sparsity and skewness, as well as the complex spatio-temporal variations within the crowd mobility data. Therefore, we design a novel spatio-temporal clustering method to group Wi-Fi access points (APs) with similar transition features, and obtain more regular mobility features for model inputs. We then propose an attention-based graph embedding design to capture the correlations among the crowd flows and transitions, and jointly predict the AP-level flows as well as transitions across buildings and clusters through a multi-task formulation. Extensive experimental studies using more than 28 million association records collected during 2020-2021 academic year validate the excellent accuracy of GAEFT in forecasting dynamic and complex crowd mobility.