Antarctic Futures: An Assessment of Climate-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Service Provisioning in the Southern Ocean

In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Direction for Future Research

Hydro Nepal Journal of Water Energy and Environment ◽

10.3126/hn.v20i0.16488 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 20 ◽

pp. 41-48 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Utsab Bhattarai

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Life Support ◽

Review Paper ◽

Global Climate ◽

Biological Species ◽

Future Research ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The potential adverse effects of climate change have posed serious threat to all species of the planet in many ways. Species’ functional characteristics strongly influence ecosystem properties. Although significant numbers of studies have already explored the interrelationship between biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate change more focused studies have now begun to appear with the goal of investigating and analyzing the negative consequences of climate change on life support systems. This review paper discusses the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and redirects how these losses of biological species on earth have affected and will continue to have effects on the delivery chain of ecosystem services. Concluding section of this paper spotlights on possible mitigation and adaptation plan of actions which contributes in minimizing climate change induced risks while supporting biodiversity and thus the entire ecosystem services. The timeliness of this review is evident because the concerns regarding the potential impacts of global climate change on species and ecosystem services are widely and seriously recognized as major threat of our time.HYDRO Nepal JournalJournal of Water Energy and EnvironmentIssue: 20Page: 41-48

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Investigating the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in UK agro-ecosystems: An application of the DPSIR framework

Land Use Policy ◽

10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105394 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 105 ◽

pp. 105394

Author(s):

Ellen D. Moss ◽

Darren M. Evans ◽

Jonathan P. Atkins

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Dpsir Framework ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Climate Change and the Oceans Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems

The World Ocean in Globalisation ◽

10.1163/9789004204225_008 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 131-146

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Marine Ecosystems ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Climate-mediated changes to mixed-layer properties in the Southern Ocean: assessing the phytoplankton response

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-5-847-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 847-864 ◽

Cited By ~ 55

Author(s):

P. W. Boyd ◽

S. C. Doney ◽

R. Strzepek ◽

J. Dusenberry ◽

K. Lindsay ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southern Ocean ◽

Climate Model ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Environmental Control ◽

Climate System Model ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Detection And Attribution ◽

Key Species ◽

Phytoplankton Functional Groups

Abstract. Concurrent changes in ocean chemical and physical properties influence phytoplankton dynamics via alterations in carbonate chemistry, nutrient and trace metal inventories and upper ocean light environment. Using a fully coupled, global carbon-climate model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon), we quantify anthropogenic climate change relative to the background natural interannual variability for the Southern Ocean over the period 2000 and 2100. Model results are interpreted using our understanding of the environmental control of phytoplankton growth rates – leading to two major findings. Firstly, comparison with results from phytoplankton perturbation experiments, in which environmental properties have been altered for key species (e.g., bloom formers), indicates that the predicted rates of change in oceanic properties over the next few decades are too subtle to be represented experimentally at present. Secondly, the rate of secular climate change will not exceed background natural variability, on seasonal to interannual time-scales, for at least several decades – which may not provide the prevailing conditions of change, i.e. constancy, needed for phytoplankton adaptation. Taken together, the relatively subtle environmental changes, due to climate change, may result in adaptation by resident phytoplankton, but not for several decades due to the confounding effects of climate variability. This presents major challenges for the detection and attribution of climate change effects on Southern Ocean phytoplankton. We advocate the development of multi-faceted tests/metrics that will reflect the relative plasticity of different phytoplankton functional groups and/or species to respond to changing ocean conditions.

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Modeling the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services

Natural Capital ◽

10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199588992.003.0018 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 323-338 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Joshua J. Lawler ◽

Erik Nelson ◽

Marc Conte ◽

Sarah L. Shafer ◽

Driss Ennaanay ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Sensitivity Analysis with Calibration of Natural Resource Variables under Climate Change

Natural Resources Management ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-0803-8.ch031 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 681-691

Author(s):

Nilanjan Ghosh ◽

Somnath Hazra

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Natural Resource ◽

Computable General Equilibrium ◽

Econometric Models ◽

The Other ◽

Advantages And Disadvantages ◽

Human Economy ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

This chapter compares two quantitative frameworks, namely, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Econometric models to study the impacts of climate change on human economy. However, as is inferred from this chapter, CGE framework is fraught with unrealistic assumptions, and fails to capture impacts of climate change and extreme events on the ecosystem services. On the other hand, econometric framework can be customised and is not based on the unrealistic assumptions like CGE. The various advantages and disadvantages of the two methods have been discussed critically in the process in this chapter in light of the avowed objective of understanding sustainability science.

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Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-15-0572.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 29 (9) ◽

pp. 3199-3218 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Feng Li ◽

Yury V. Vikhliaev ◽

Paul A. Newman ◽

Steven Pawson ◽

Judith Perlwitz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southern Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Ozone Depletion ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Stratospheric Chemistry ◽

Earth Observing System ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer’s evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. This study investigates the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960–2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model’s climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979–2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November–January. It enhances stratosphere–troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

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Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.2006.1953 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 362 (1488) ◽

pp. 2351-2365 ◽

Cited By ~ 122

Author(s):

P.N Trathan ◽

J Forcada ◽

E.J Murphy

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southern Ocean ◽

Food Webs ◽

Time Scales ◽

Trophic Level ◽

Global Ocean ◽

Ecosystem Structure ◽

Marine Predator ◽

Enso Events ◽

Biological Responses

The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in different regional food webs, there is the potential to make predictions about future change scenarios.

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