scholarly journals Expected Utility Based Decision Making underZ-Information and Its Application

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashad R. Aliev ◽  
Derar Atallah Talal Mraiziq ◽  
Oleg H. Huseynov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Real World ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Human Perception ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
General Representation ◽  
Direct Computation ◽  
Source Of Information

Real-world decision relevant information is often partially reliable. The reasons are partial reliability of the source of information, misperceptions, psychological biases, incompetence, and so forth.Z-numbers based formalization of information (Z-information) represents a natural language (NL) based value of a variable of interest in line with the related NL based reliability. What is important is thatZ-information not only is the most general representation of real-world imperfect information but also has the highest descriptive power from human perception point of view as compared to fuzzy number. In this study, we present an approach to decision making underZ-information based on direct computation overZ-numbers. This approach utilizes expected utility paradigm and is applied to a benchmark decision problem in the field of economics.

scholarly journals INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE OF ECONOMICS AND PHILOSOPHY ON AMBIGUITY AVERSION

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Bonanno ◽  
Martin van Hees ◽  
Christian List ◽  
Bertil Tungodden
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Von Neumann ◽  
Descriptive Theory ◽  
Sure Thing Principle ◽  
New Literature ◽  
Theoretical Side

The paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty has undoubtedly been the theory of Expected Utility, which was first developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and later extended by Savage (1954) to the case of subjective uncertainty. The inadequacy of the theory of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) as a descriptive theory was soon pointed out in experiments, most famously by Allais (1953) and Ellsberg (1961). The observed departures from SEU noticed by Allais and Ellsberg became known as “paradoxes”. The Ellsberg paradox gave rise, several years later, to a new literature on decision-making under ambiguity. The theoretical side of this literature was pioneered by Schmeidler (1989). This literature views the departures from SEU in situations similar to those discussed by Ellsberg as rational responses to ambiguity. The rationality is “recovered” by relaxing Savage's Sure-Thing principle and adding an ambiguity-aversion postulate. Thus the ambiguity-aversion literature takes a normative point of view and does consider Ellsberg-type choices as behavioural “anomalies”.

Ranking of Z-Numbers and Its Application in Decision Making

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (06) ◽  
pp. 1503-1519 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Aliev ◽  
O. H. Huseynov ◽  
R. Serdaroglu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real World ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Real World Application ◽  
Analysis System ◽  
Main Ideas

Real-world decision problems in decision analysis, system analysis, economics, ecology, and other fields are characterized by fuzziness and partial reliability of relevant information. In order to deal with such information, Prof. Zadeh suggested the concept of a Z-number as an ordered pair [Formula: see text] of fuzzy numbers [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], the first of which is a linguistic value of a variable of interest, and the second one is a linguistic value of probability measure of the first one, playing a role of reliability of information. Decision making under Z-number based information requires ranking of Z-numbers. In this paper we suggest a human-like fundamental approach for ranking of Z-numbers which is based on two main ideas. One idea is to compute optimality degrees of Z-numbers and the other one is to adjust the obtained degrees by using a human being’s opinion formalized by a degree of pessimism. Two examples and a real-world application are provided to show validity of the suggested research. A comparison of the proposed approach with the existing methods is conducted.

The Human-IoT Ecosystem

2020 ◽  
pp. 1132-1156
Author(s):  
Vaughan Michell ◽  
James Olweny
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real World ◽  
Human Perception ◽  
Smart Device ◽  
Context Information ◽  
Situation Theory ◽  
Powerful Approach ◽  
Iot Devices ◽  
World Environment ◽  
Support Decision Making

IoT devices offer a cheap and powerful approach to identifying real world states and situations and acting on this real world environment to change these states and the environment. Augmenting real world things with IoT technology enables the capture of real world context to support decision making and actions in the real world via powerful smart objects in a human- IoT ecosystem. Increasingly we will have to understand the Human-IoT or smart device ecosystem interaction in order to optimise and integrate the design of human and IoT systems. This chapter explores the design and categorisation of IoT devices in terms of their functionality and capability to support context to add to human perception. It then proposes how we can model the context information of both IoT devices and humans in a way that may help progress Human-IoT Ecosystem design using situation theory.

Deontological Decision Theory and the Grounds of Subjective Permissibility

2019 ◽  
pp. 204-222
Author(s):  
Seth Lazar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Perfect Information ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty

If we had perfect information, then we could say, for any given objectively permissible act, what makes it objectively permissible. But when we have imperfect information, when we must decide under risk and uncertainty, what then makes an act subjectively permissible or impermissible? There are two salient possibilities. The first is the “verdicts” approach. It grounds judgments of subjective permissibility in probabilistically discounted judgments of objective permissibility. The principle “minimize expected objective wrongness” takes this approach. The second is the “reasons” approach. It grounds subjective permissibility in probabilistically discounted objective reasons. “Maximize expected utility” is one example. Chapter 10 considers whether the verdicts approach or the reasons approach to grounding judgments of subjective permissibility is better suited for deontological decision-making with imperfect information. Perhaps surprisingly, the reasons approach comes out on top.

Fuzzy Geometry-Based Decision Making with Unprecisiated Visual Information

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (05) ◽  
pp. 1051-1073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafik A. Aliev ◽  
Oleg H. Huseynov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Visual Information ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Incidence Geometry ◽  
Mathematical Formalism ◽  
Numerical Representation ◽  
Membership Functions ◽  
Suggested Approach ◽  
Fuzzy Geometry

Decision making is conditioned by relevant information. This information very seldom has reliable numerical representation. Usually, decision-relevant information is perception-based. A question arises of how to proceed from perception-based information to a corresponding mathematical formalism. When perception-based information is expressed in natural language, the fuzzy set theory can be used as a corresponding mathematical formalism for decision analysis. However, perception-based decision-relevant information is not always sufficiently clear to be modeled by means of membership functions. In contrast, it remains at a level of some cloud images which are difficult to be caught by words. This imperfect information caught in perceptions cannot be precisiated by numbers or fuzzy sets and is referred to as unprecisiated information. Humans are able to make decisions based on unprecisiated visual perceptions. Modeling of this outstanding capability, even to some limited extent, becomes a difficult yet a highly promising research area. In this study, we use fuzzy geometry and the extended fuzzy logic to cope with uncertain situations coming with unprecisiated information. In this approach, the objects of computation and reasoning are geometric primitives which model human perceptions when the latter cannot be defined in terms of membership functions. For this aim, the fuzzified axioms of the incidence geometry are used. An approach to decision making with outcomes and probabilities described by geometrical primitives is developed. Examples of application of the approach to decision making on a short term investment decision and marketing decision are given. The obtained results prove the validity of the suggested approach.

To What Extent Should We Enrich Law and Economics? On Calabresi and his Future of Law and Economics

Global Jurist ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Régis Lanneau
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Theory ◽  
Real World ◽  
Law And Economics ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Future ◽  
Epistemological Point ◽  
Laws And Regulations

Abstract In this paper, I argue that the “expanded” economic theory advocated in Calabresi’s book “The Future of Law and Economics” could be interpreted in at least three different ways, all of which are compatible. First, Calabresi’s book could be interpreted as an attempt to incentivize lawyer-economists to explore laws and regulations from different angles or perspectives rather than merely apply neoclassical theories. Second, it could be considered an attempt to justify the introduction of the notion of moral costs into law and economics to better explain some legal realities. Third, it could be considered an attempt to advocate, in a more normative way, the need to incorporate moral costs into real world analysis to better improve upon decision making. This paper will address and discuss each of these possible interpretations. It will be clear that, from an epistemological point of view, if the first interpretation might be more widely accepted because it is less controversial, the second and third interpretations remain more problematic. Admittedly, the concept of moral costs could obscure and even distort our understanding of some legal realities. Moreover, the introduction of such costs for decision making is raising questions which cannot be answered through economic theory alone.

The Human-IoT Ecosystem

2017 ◽  
pp. 223-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaughan Michell ◽  
James Olweny
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real World ◽  
Human Perception ◽  
Smart Device ◽  
Context Information ◽  
Situation Theory ◽  
Powerful Approach ◽  
Iot Devices ◽  
World Environment ◽  
Support Decision Making

IoT devices offer a cheap and powerful approach to identifying real world states and situations and acting on this real world environment to change these states and the environment. Augmenting real world things with IoT technology enables the capture of real world context to support decision making and actions in the real world via powerful smart objects in a human- IoT ecosystem. Increasingly we will have to understand the Human-IoT or smart device ecosystem interaction in order to optimise and integrate the design of human and IoT systems. This chapter explores the design and categorisation of IoT devices in terms of their functionality and capability to support context to add to human perception. It then proposes how we can model the context information of both IoT devices and humans in a way that may help progress Human-IoT Ecosystem design using situation theory.

BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING WITH COMBINED STATES UNDER IMPERFECT INFORMATION

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (03) ◽  
pp. 619-645 ◽  
Author(s):  
RAFIK A. ALIEV ◽  
WITOLD PEDRYCZ ◽  
OLEG H. HUSEYNOV
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Suggested Approach ◽  
Behavioral Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Decision ◽  
Special Cases

Behavioral decision making is an area of multidisciplinary research attracting growing interest of scientists and practitioners, economists, and business people. A wide spectrum of successful theories is present now, including Prospect theory, multiple priors models, studies on altruism, trust and fairness. However, these theories are developed for precise and complete information, whereas real information concerning a decision maker's (DM) behavior and environment is imperfect, qualitative, and, as a result, often described in natural language (NL). We suggest an approach based on modeling a DM's behavior by a set of states. Each state represents a certain principal behavior. In our approach, states of nature and DM's states constitute a single space of combined states. For formalizing relevant information described in NL, we use fuzzy set theory. The utility model is based on Choquet-like integration over combined states. The investigations show that Expected Utility, Choquet Expected Utility and Cumulative Prospect Theory are special cases of the suggested approach. We apply the suggested approach to solving a benchmark and a real-life decision problem. The obtained results show validity of the suggested approach.

An Ethical Perspective on Euthanasia and Assisted Suicide in the Netherlands from a Nursing Point of View

1998 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 307-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arie JG van der Arend
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Criminal Law ◽  
Assisted Suicide ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Court Decisions ◽  
Ethical Perspective ◽  
Consultation Skills ◽  
Source Of Information

In the Netherlands, euthanasia and assisted suicide are formally forbidden by criminal law, but, under certain strictly formulated conditions, physicians are excused for administering these to patients on the basis of necessity. These conditions are bound up with a long process of criteria development. Therefore, physicians still live in uncertainty. Future court decisions may change the criteria. Apart from that, physicians can always be prosecuted. The position of nurses, however, is perfectly clear; they are never allowed to administer euthanasia or assisted suicide. Nevertheless, they should be involved in the decision-making process because they are an important source of information and have consultation skills. The openness of the discussion about these issues in the Netherlands may prevent an escalation of medical or nursing responsibility and falling victim to the ‘slippery slope’.

Multidisciplinary Approach to Critical Care Design

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuval Bitan ◽  
Roy Ilan ◽  
Steven D. Harris ◽  
Keith S. Karn
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Multidisciplinary Approach ◽  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Source Of Information

The goal of this project is to improve clinical decision-making in the intensive care unit (ICU) environment. Making the optimal decisions depends on the quality and timeliness of the information available to the clinician. We believe that healthcare professionals will make better clinical decisions when the relevant information is collected and organized in a manner appropriate to support in situ decision-making. This is especially important in complex situations such those commonly encountered in the ICU environment. Currently there is no single integrated source of information that presents relevant information to clinicians. This project is developing methods to identify the core information required to engineer the information exchange among medical devices, and the information presentation layer, to support clinical decision-making in the ICU.

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