scholarly journals A State-Based Sensitivity Analysis for Distinguishing the Global Importance of Predictor Variables in Artificial Neural Networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Ardjmand ◽  
David F. Millie ◽  
Iman Ghalehkhondabi ◽  
William A. Young II ◽  
Gary R. Weckman
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Apparent Lack ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Universal Approximators ◽  
Empirical Approaches

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are powerful empirical approaches used to model databases with a high degree of accuracy. Despite their recognition as universal approximators, many practitioners are skeptical about adopting their routine usage due to lack of model transparency. To improve the clarity of model prediction and correct the apparent lack of comprehension, researchers have utilized a variety of methodologies to extract the underlying variable relationships within ANNs, such as sensitivity analysis (SA). The theoretical basis of local SA (that predictors are independent and inputs other than variable of interest remain “fixed” at predefined values) is challenged in global SA, where, in addition to altering the attribute of interest, the remaining predictors are varied concurrently across their respective ranges. Here, a regression-based global methodology, state-based sensitivity analysis (SBSA), is proposed for measuring the importance of predictor variables upon a modeled response within ANNs. SBSA was applied to network models of a synthetic database having a defined structure and exhibiting multicollinearity. SBSA achieved the most accurate portrayal of predictor-response relationships (compared to local SA and Connected Weights Analysis), closely approximating the actual variability of the modeled system. From this, it is anticipated that skepticisms concerning the delineation of predictor influences and their uncertainty domains upon a modeled output within ANNs will be curtailed.

Entering the Black Box of Neural Networks

2003 ◽  
Vol 42 (03) ◽  
pp. 287-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. S. Gerber ◽  
T. G. Tape ◽  
R. S. Wigton ◽  
P. S. Heckerling
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Important Predictor ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Linear Substitution ◽  
Relevance Analysis ◽  
Artificial Neural

Summary Objectives: Artificial neural networks have proved to be accurate predictive instruments in several medical domains, but have been criticized for failing to specify the information upon which their predictions are based. We used methods of relevance analysis and sensitivity analysis to determine the most important predictor variables for a validated neural network for community-acquired pneumonia. Methods: We studied a feed-forward, back-propagation neural network trained to predict pneumonia among patients presenting to an emergency department with fever or respiratory complaints. We used the methods of full retraining, weight elimination, constant substitution, linear substitution, and data permutation to identify a consensus set of important demographic, symptom, sign, and comorbidity predictors that influenced network output for pneumonia. We compared predictors identified by these methods to those identified by a weight propagation analysis based on the matrices of the network, and by logistic regression. Results: Predictors identified by these methods were clinically plausible, and were concordant with those identified by weight analysis, and by logistic regression using the same data. The methods were highly correlated in network error, and led to variable sets with errors below bootstrap 95% confidence intervals for networks with similar numbers of inputs. Scores for variable relevance tended to be higher with methods that precluded network retraining (weight elimination) or that permuted variable values (data permutation), compared with methods that permitted retraining (full retraining) or that approximated its effects (constant and linear substitution). Conclusion: Methods of relevance analysis and sensitivity analysis are useful for identifying important predictor variables used by artificial neural networks.

Predicting the exchange rate in Sudan using neural networks models during the period (1960 - 2017): التنبؤ بسعر الصرف في السودان باستخدام نماذج الشبكات العصبية خلال الفترة (1960م – 2017م)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fathi Ahmed Ali Adam, Mahmoud Mohamed Abdel Aziz Gamal El-Di
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Classical Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Models

The study examined the use of artificial neural network models to predict the exchange rate in Sudan through annual exchange rate data between the US dollar and the Sudanese pound. This study aimed to formulate the models of artificial neural networks in which the exchange rate can be predicted in the coming period. The importance of the study is that it is necessary to use modern models to predict instead of other classical models. The study hypothesized that the models of artificial neural networks have a high ability to predict the exchange rate. Use models of artificial neural networks. The most important results ability of artificial neural networks models to predict the exchange rate accurately, Form MLP (1-1-1) is the best model chosen for that purpose. The study recommended the development of the proposed model for long-term forecasting.

scholarly journals Sensitivity analysis of energy inputs in crop production using artificial neural networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 197 ◽  
pp. 992-998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Khoshroo ◽  
Ali Emrouznejad ◽  
Ahmadreza Ghaffarizadeh ◽  
Mehdi Kasraei ◽  
Mahmoud Omid
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Energy Inputs ◽  
Artificial Neural

COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS SCREENING ANALYSIS NEURAL NETWORK TECHNOLOGY

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (64) ◽  
pp. 53-57
Author(s):  
S. Aloshyn ◽  
I. Khomenko ◽  
N. Fursova
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Signs And Symptoms ◽  
Multidimensional Space ◽  
Diagnostic Systems ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
High Degree

Low-cost, reliable and quick screening diagnosis of coronavirus can be implemented on the basis of intelligent technologies for analyzing a set of signs and symptoms with solving the problem of pattern recognition in the basis of artificial neural networks. The high degree of coronavirus infection diagnostic procedure uncertainty, the vector dimension of input factor-symptoms, fuzzy conditioning and poor formalizability of the subject condition connection with these symptoms require appropriate analytical tools. An analysis of the problem and possible solutions allows justifying the feasibilit y of implementing screening diagnostics as a solution to the problem of nonlinear optimization in a multidimensional space of high-dimensional factors and states. Artificial neural networks with compulsory training on a representative sample were chosen as a tool for implementing the project. The proposed technology brings diagnostics of coronavirus infection closer to full automation, robotization and intellectualization of complex monitoring (diagnostic) systems as the most promising technology for pattern recognition in systems with a high degree of entropy and allows you to solve the problem at the lowest cost and required performance indicators.

Artificial Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
pp. 222-243
Author(s):  
Joarder Kamruzzaman ◽  
Ruhul Sarker
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Network Applications ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Neural Network Applications

The primary aim of this chapter is to present an overview of the artificial neural network basics and operation, architectures, and the major algorithms used for training the neural network models. As can be seen in subsequent chapters, neural networks have made many useful contributions to solve theoretical and practical problems in finance and manufacturing areas. The secondary aim here is therefore to provide a brief review of artificial neural network applications in finance and manufacturing areas.

Comparing Conventional and Artificial Neural Network Models for the Pricing of Options

2002 ◽  
pp. 220-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Lajbcygier
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Conventional Models ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Models

The pricing of options on futures is compared using conventional models and artificial neural networks. This work demonstrates superior pricing accuracy using the artificial neural networks in an important subset of the input parameter set.

scholarly journals Radyal Tabanlı Yapay Sinir Ağlarının Kurutma Kinetiğinin Modellenmesinde Kullanımı

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 511
Author(s):  
Adil Koray Yıldız ◽  
Muhammed Taşova ◽  
Hakan Polatcı
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Drying Kinetics ◽  
Hot Pepper ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Drying Time ◽  
Drying Behavior ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Hidden Layer

Drying method is preferred in agricultural products since it provides advantages in many processes such as increasing the strength of products, transporting and storing. It is necessary to estimate the drying behavior of the products in order to achieve the best drying without reducing the product quality. For this reason, many numerical drying models have been developed to estimate the drying kinetics of the products. Recently, artificial neural networks have been widely used for the development of these models. Artificial neural networks are mathematical models that work in a similar way to natural neuron cells. Radial based artificial neural networks are radial based activation functions in the transition to the hidden layer unlike other networks. In this study, modeling of drying kinetics with radial based networks was investigated. For the experiment, red hot pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) was dipped in boiled water and microwave pretreatments and, then dried in the oven at 65°C. The absorbable moisture values were calculated during the drying period. The radial based artificial neural network models were trained with the drying time values as input and the absorbable moisture values as output. The study was carried out with two data sets including all data and only the average. In trainings with all data, R value of the best model was calculated as 0.9566. R was calculated as 0.9998 with average data.

Artificial Neural Networks

2006 ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joarder Kamruzzaman ◽  
Ruhul A. Sarker
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Network Applications ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Neural Network Applications

The primary aim of this chapter is to present an overview of the artificial neural network basics and operation, architectures, and the major algorithms used for training the neural network models. As can be seen in subsequent chapters, neural networks have made many useful contributions to solve theoretical and practical problems in finance and manufacturing areas. The secondary aim here is therefore to provide a brief review of artificial neural network applications in finance and manufacturing areas.

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