scholarly journals A New Residual Life Prediction Method for Complex Systems Based on Wiener Process and Evidential Reasoning

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhang ◽  
Shuaiwen Tang ◽  
Taoyuan Liu ◽  
Bangcheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Wiener Process ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Parameters Estimation ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Residual Life Prediction

A new residual life prediction method for complex systems based on Wiener process and evidential reasoning is proposed to predict the residual life of complex systems effectively. Moreover, the better maintenance strategies and decision supports are provided. For the residual life prediction of complex systems, the maximum likelihood method is adopted to estimate the drift coefficient, and the Bayesian method is adopted to update the parameters of Wiener process. The process of parameters estimation and the probability density function (PDF) of the residual life are deduced. To improve the accuracy of the residual life prediction results, the evidential reasoning (ER) is used to integrate the prediction results of Wiener process. Finally, a case study of gyroscope is examined to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, compared with fuzzy theory, which provides an important reference for the optimization of the reliability of complex systems and improvement.

Residual Life Prediction of Corroded Pipeline Based on Electrochemical Model

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-he Wang ◽  
Jun Yi ◽  
Ai-xia Ma ◽  
Shi-ming Shen ◽  
Xiao-chun Yu
Keyword(s):  
Life Prediction ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Electrochemical Corrosion ◽  
Corrosion Failure ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
Residual Life Prediction ◽  
Size Model ◽  
Electrochemical Model

According to the corrosion failure characteristics of buried oil and gas pipelines, electrochemical corrosion rates of the local corrosion and pitting corrosion flaws were derived by Faraday’s laws, and the limit size model of corrosion defects was established based upon ASME-B31G criteria. A new method of the residual life prediction for buried pipelines was finally developed based on the corrosion rate model and limit size model of corrosion defects, and the prediction method was validated with an example and the results showed that the method is reliable for pipelines with corroded defects.

scholarly journals Research on Residual Life Prediction for Electrical Connectors Based on Intermittent Failure and Hidden Semi-Markov Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Li ◽  
Kehong Lv ◽  
Jing Qiu ◽  
Guanjun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Electrical Connector ◽  
Residual Life Prediction ◽  
Intermittent Failure ◽  
Electrical Connectors

Based on the dynamic properties of electrical connector intermittent failure, the model and methods for residual life prediction for electrical connectors are studied in this paper. Firstly, the mechanism of electrical connector intermittent failure is analyzed, and the area enclosed by the contact resistance curve and the fault threshold is defined as the generalized severity of intermittent failure to describe how severe the electrical connector’s intermittent failure is. Then, the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM) is introduced to build the residual life prediction model of the electrical connector. Further, the evaluation method of using the state and prediction method for residual life are studied. Finally, by carrying out the residual life prediction test, the effectiveness of the residual life prediction method for electrical connectors based on intermittent failure and HSMM is verified.

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