Water Carrying Capacity Evaluation Method Based on Cloud Model Theory and an Evidential Reasoning Approach

The scientific and reasonable evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources is of guiding significance for solving the issues of water resource shortages and pollution control. It is also an important method for realizing the sustainable development of water resources. Aiming at an evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources, an evaluation model based on the cloud model theory and evidential reasoning approach is studied. First, based on the existing indicators, a water resources evaluation index system based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model is constructed, and a classification method of carrying capacity grade is designed. The cloud model theory is used to realize the transformation between the measured value of indicators and the degree of correlation. Second, to obtain the weight of the evaluation index, the weight method of the index weights model based on the entropy weight method and evidential reasoning approach is proposed. Then, the reliability distribution function of the evaluation index and the graded probability distribution of the carrying capacity of water resources are obtained by an evidential reasoning approach. Finally, the evaluation method of the carrying capacity of water resources is constructed, and specific steps are provided. The proposed method is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity for Hunan Province, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in the present study. This paper applies this method of the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2019. It is concluded that the water resources carrying capacity of Hunan Province belongs to III~V, which is between the critical state and the strong carrying capacity state. The carrying capacity of the province’s water resources is basically on the rise. This shows that the carrying capacity of water resources in Hunan Province is in good condition, and corresponding protective measures should be taken to continue the current state.

STABILITY FAILURE ANALYSIS IN THE OPERATIONS OF FLOATING DRY DOCKS

The main area of this work reflects a topic for which there is little or limited reference available and is carried out to meet the needs of professional and practical floating dry dock operators. The risk of hazards in floating dry docks is evaluated using a discrete fuzzy set theory (FST) and an evidential reasoning (ER) approach in a situation where historical failure data is not available. Fuzzy set modelling is used to estimate the safety levels of the causes of basic failure events in floating dry docks due to stability concerns using the concept of linguistic variables, and provides a framework for dealing with such variables in a systematic way. The ER approach is used to synthesise the estimated safety levels of the causes of hazards/basic hazard events. The results of this work will be valuable to dry dock masters and sister maritime engineering professionals.

Towards a Normative Assessment of Probative Value in International Criminal Adjudication

The trial is an epistemic event. Yet, the manner in which the probative value of legal evidence is calculated remains largely unarticulated. Thus, in the face of an urgent requirement to advance a normative model of evidential reasoning which serves the needs of decision-makers, practitioners, and experts, this article assesses the utility of three dominant approaches, founded upon the exposition of inferences, scenarios, and probabilities. These find expression in Wigmorean, Narrative, and Bayesian network models, and a number of hybrid approaches. Through an analysis and critique of the foregoing models, the article attempts to discern the optimal normative model of evidential reasoning to be applied in international criminal trials, consonant with Twining’s formulation of rational adjudication, and assessed in accordance with a set of rational evaluation criteria drawn from New Evidence scholarship and its historical forbears.