scholarly journals Forecasting Confirmed Malaria Cases in Northwestern Province of Zambia: A Time Series Analysis Using 2014–2020 Routine Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Dhally M. Menda ◽  
Mukumbuta Nawa ◽  
Rosemary K. Zimba ◽  
Catherine M. Mulikita ◽  
Jim Mwandia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Health Information System ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Routine Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
District Health ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Parsimonious Model

Background. Malaria remains a significant public health problem, especially in resource-poor settings. We aimed to forecast the year 2021 monthly confirmed malaria cases in the northwestern province of Zambia. Methods. The total number of confirmed monthly malaria cases recorded at health facilities over the past 7-years period (January 2014 to December 2020) was taken from the District Health Information System version 2 (DHIS.2) database. Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to forecast monthly confirmed malaria cases for 2021. STATA software version 16 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Between 2014 and 2020, there were 3,795,541 confirmed malaria cases in the northwestern province with a monthly mean of 45,185 cases. ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 was the best fit and the most parsimonious model. The forecasted mean monthly confirmed malaria cases were 60,284 (95%CI 30,969–121,944), and the total forecasted confirmed malaria cases were 723,413 (95%CI 371,626–1,463,322) for the year 2021. Conclusion. The forecasted confirmed malaria cases suggest that there will be an increase in the number of confirmed malaria cases for the year 2021 in the northwestern province. Therefore, there is a need for concerted efforts to prevent and eliminate the disease if the goal to eliminate malaria in Zambia by 2030 is to be realized.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Time-Series Predictions for Healthcare Emergency Department Indicators and the Impact of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3561
Author(s):  
Diego Duarte ◽  
Chris Walshaw ◽  
Nadarajah Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
General Regression Neural Network ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Hospital Patients ◽  
Major Incidents ◽  
General Regression ◽  
The Impact

Across the world, healthcare systems are under stress and this has been hugely exacerbated by the COVID pandemic. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), usually in the form of time-series data, are used to help manage that stress. Making reliable predictions of these indicators, particularly for emergency departments (ED), can facilitate acute unit planning, enhance quality of care and optimise resources. This motivates models that can forecast relevant KPIs and this paper addresses that need by comparing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, a purely statistical model, to Prophet, a decomposable forecasting model based on trend, seasonality and holidays variables, and to the General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), a machine learning model. The dataset analysed is formed of four hourly valued indicators from a UK hospital: Patients in Department; Number of Attendances; Unallocated Patients with a DTA (Decision to Admit); Medically Fit for Discharge. Typically, the data exhibit regular patterns and seasonal trends and can be impacted by external factors such as the weather or major incidents. The COVID pandemic is an extreme instance of the latter and the behaviour of sample data changed dramatically. The capacity to quickly adapt to these changes is crucial and is a factor that shows better results for GRNN in both accuracy and reliability.

scholarly journals Studying monthly rainfall over Dibrugarh, Assam: Use of SARIMA approach

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-356
Author(s):  
J. HAZARIKA ◽  
B. PATHAK ◽  
A. N. PATOWARY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Moving Average Model

Perceptive the rainfall pattern is tough for the solution of several regional environmental issues of water resources management, with implications for agriculture, climate change, and natural calamity such as floods and droughts. Statistical computing, modeling and forecasting data are key instruments for studying these patterns. The study of time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in different applications in hydrology and environmental fields. Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model introduced by Box and Jenkins. In this study, an attempt has been made to use Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for monthly rainfall data taken from Dibrugarh for the period of 1980- 2014 with a total of 420 points.  We investigated and found that ARIMA (0, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model is suitable for the given data set. As such this model can be used to forecast the pattern of monthly rainfall for the upcoming years, which can help the decision makers to establish priorities in terms of agricultural, flood, water demand management etc.  

Modeling and forecasting multifractal wavelet scale: Western market versus eastern market

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 1850109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emrah Oral ◽  
Gazanfer Unal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Primary Study ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Time Frequency

This leading primary study is about modeling multifractal wavelet scale time series data using multiple wavelet coherence (MWC), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and forecasting with vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (VARFIMA) model. The data is acquired from Yahoo Finances!, which is composed of 1671 daily stock market of eastern (NIKKEI, TAIEX, KOPSI) and western (SP500, FTSE, DAX) markets. Once the co-movement dependencies on time-frequency space are determined with MWC, the coherent data is extracted out of raw data at a certain scale by using CWT. The multifractal behavior of the extracted series is verified by MFDFA and its local Hurst exponents have been calculated obtaining root mean square of residuals at each scale. This inter-calculated fluctuation function time series has been re-scaled and used to estimate the process with VARFIMA model and forecasted accordingly. The results have shown that the direction of price change is determined without difficulty and the efficiency of forecasting has been substantially increased using highly correlated multifractal wavelet scale time series data.

scholarly journals Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 1118-1129 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. WANG ◽  
C. DENG ◽  
J. P. LI ◽  
Y. Y. ZHANG ◽  
X. Y. LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
And Control

SUMMARYTuberculosis (TB) affects people globally and is being reconsidered as a serious public health problem in China. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of TB. This study proposes a hybrid model combining autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network for forecasting the incidence of TB from January 2007 to March 2016. Prediction performance was compared between the hybrid model and the ARIMA model. The best-fit hybrid model was combined with an ARIMA (3,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 and NAR neural network with four delays and 12 neurons in the hidden layer. The ARIMA-NAR hybrid model, which exhibited lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error of 0·2209, 0·1373, and 0·0406, respectively, in the modelling performance, could produce more accurate forecasting of TB incidence compared to the ARIMA model. This study shows that developing and applying the ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is an effective method to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time-series data, and this model could be helpful in the prevention and control of TB.

Modeling Research on 1982-2000 NDVI Time Series Data of Chinese Different Vegetation Types Based on Autoregressive Moving Average Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 863-868
Author(s):  
Rong Yu ◽  
Bo Feng Cai ◽  
Xiang Qin Su ◽  
Ya Zi He ◽  
Jing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Noaa Avhrr ◽  
Index Time Series

Vegetation index time series data modeling is widely used in many research areas, such as analysis of environmental change, estimation of crop yield, and the precision of the traditional vegetation index time series data fitting model is lower. This paper conducts the modeling with introducing the autoregressive moving average time series model, and using NOAA/AVHRR normalized differential vegetation index time series data, to estimate the errors of original data which are between under the situation that the parameters to be estimated are lesser, and on the basis gives the fitted equation to the six kinds of main land covers’ vegetation index time series data of Northeast China region.

scholarly journals Comparison of autoregressive moving average and state space methods for monthly time series modelling of Labrador and South-East Quebec river flows

2015 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 200-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carissa Sparkes ◽  
Leonard M. Lye ◽  
Susan Richter
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
State Space ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Hydrologic Modelling ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
High Level ◽  
Accuracy Of Prediction

Time series data such as monthly stream flows can be modelled using time series methods and then used to simulate or forecast flows for short term planning. Two methods of time series modelling were reviewed and compared: the well-known auto regressive moving average (ARMA) method and the state-space time-series (SSTS) method. ARMA has been used in hydrology to model and simulate flows with good results and is widely accepted for this purpose. SSTS modelling is a more recently developed method that is relatively unused for hydrologic modelling. This paper focuses on modelling the stream flows from basins of different sizes using these two time series modelling methods and comparing the results. Three rivers in Labrador and South-East Quebec were modelled: the Romaine, Ugjoktok and Alexis Rivers. Both models were compared for accuracy of prediction, ease of software use and simplicity of model to determine the preferred time series methodology approach for modelling these rivers. The SSTS was considered very easy to use but model diagnostics were found to require a high level of statistical understanding. Ultimately, the ARMA method was determined to be the better method for the typical engineer to use, considering the diagnostics were simple and the monthly flows could be easily simulated to verify results.

scholarly journals Pemodelan Harga Beras di Pulau Sumatera dengan Menggunakan Model Generalized Space Time ARIMA

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
Dwi Yulianti ◽  
I Made Sumertajaya ◽  
Itasia Dina Sulvianti
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Sumatra Island ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Multiple Variables

Generalized space time autoregressive integrated  moving average (GSTARIMA) model is a time series model of multiple variables with spatial and time linkages (space time). GSTARIMA model is an extension of the space time autoregressive integrated moving average (STARIMA) model with the assumption that each location has unique model parameters, thus GSTARIMA model is more flexible than STARIMA model. The purposes of this research are to determine the best model and predict the time series data of rice price on all provincial capitals of Sumatra island using GSTARIMA model. This research used weekly data of rice price on all provincial capitals of Sumatra island from January 2010 to December 2017. The spatial weights used in this research are the inverse distance and queen contiguity. The modeling result shows that the best model is GSTARIMA (1,1,0) with queen contiguity weighted matrix and has the smallest MAPE value of 1.17817 %.

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