scholarly journals Economic Policy Uncertainty and Conditional Dependence between China and U.S. Stock Markets

Complexity ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Xinyu Wu ◽  
Meng Zhang ◽  
Mengqi Wu ◽  
Hao Cui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Mixed Data ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Conditional Dependence ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the conditional dependence between China and U.S. stock markets by employing the Copula-mixed-data sampling (Copula-MIDAS) framework. In the case of EPU, we consider the global EPU (GEPU), the American EPU (AEPU), and the China EPU (CEPU). The empirical analysis based on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index in China and the S&P 500 index in the U.S. shows that the tail dependence between China and U.S. stock markets is symmetrical, and the t Copula outperforms alternative Copulas in terms of in-sample goodness of fit. In particular, we find that the t Copula-MIDAS model with EPU dominates the traditional time-varying t Copula in terms of in-sample fitting. Moreover, we observe that both the GEPU and AEPU have a significantly positive impact on the conditional dependence between China and U.S. stock markets, whereas CEPU has no significant impact. The tail dependence between China and U.S. stock markets exhibits an increasing trend, particularly in the recent years.

THE ROLES OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE CORRELATION BETWEEN CRYPTOCURRENCY AND STOCK MARKETS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
LINGLING QIAN ◽  
YUEXIANG JIANG ◽  
HUAIGANG LONG ◽  
RUOYI SONG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mixed Data ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

We are the first to explore the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the COVID-19 pandemic on the correlation between the cryptocurrency index CRIX and the world stock market portfolio, as well as the hedging properties of CRIX. To this end, we mainly apply the dynamic conditional correlation model with mixed data sampling regressions, a threshold vector autoregressive model and the generalized impulse response function. We demonstrate that the correlation is influenced by the uncertainty stance of the economy and behaves differently in low-, medium- and high-uncertainty periods. Most of the abnormal market relations exist in high levels of EPU or during the COVID-19 period, and the impact of global EPU is greater than that of EPU originating in the United States, Europe, Russia and China. Moreover, the CRIX can serve as a hedge asset against the world stock market. The high (low) level of EPU has a significantly positive (negative) effect on the optimal hedge ratio of CRIX, which increases significantly during the COVID-19 period. Our findings have implications for risk management, portfolio allocations and hedging strategies.

scholarly journals The Economic Policy Uncertainty in China, the United States, and Europe: The Empirical Impact on Chinese Stock Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Wannakomol Supachart
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Chinese Markets ◽  
Chinese Stock Markets ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China, the United States, and Europe, which are influent to the Chinese stock markets. We employed Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with relative variables including the EPU indices and three Chinese stock markers indices to display the impulse responses of the markets to the EPUs. Our results indicate that the Chinese stock markets negatively respond to their domestic economic policy uncertainty in the first, second, and third month after the EPU shocks. Moreover, we also found the negative responses of the Chinese markets to the EPU from the United States that require five months to rebalance the markets. However, the Chinese markets seem positively respond to the shocks of the economic policy uncertainty in Europe and also took five months to archive market rebalancing. The significant correlation of the economic policy uncertainty between China and the United States resulted in cross-sectional correlation estimates among the EPU indices. Furthermore, there is the reasonable interesting result to claim that the economic policy uncertainty in China is statistically influenced by their own trade and fiscal policy uncertainty that may be considered to be related with China-US trade war in our conclusion.

scholarly journals COVID-19, Oil Price, Bitcoin, and US Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from ARDL Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Hanan Naser
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

The pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) creates fear and uncertainty causing extraordinary disruption to financial markets and global economy. Witnessing the fastest selloff in the American stock market in history with a plunge of more than 28% in S&P 500 has increased the volatility of global financial market to exceed the level observed during the financial crisis of 2008. On the other hand, Bitcoin value has shown considerable stability in the last couple of months peaking at $10,367.53 in the mid of February 2020. In this context, the aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 numbers on Bitcoin price taking into consideration number of controlling variables including WTI-oil price, S&P 500 index, financial market volatility, gold prices, and economic policy uncertainty of the US. To do so, ARDL estimation has been applied using daily data from December 31, 2019 till May 20, 2020. Key findings reveal that the daily reported cases of new infections have a marginal positive impact on Bitcoin price in the long term. However, the indirect impact associated with the fear of COVID-19 pandemic via financial market stress cannot be neglected. Bitcoin can also serve as a hedging tool against the economic policy uncertainty in the long term. In the short run, while the returns of economic policy uncertainty have no impact on Bitcoin price, the growth in the new cases of COVID-19 infection and returns of financial market volatility have more positive significant impact on Bitcoin returns.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Risk Spillover Networks and Risk Contagion Driver in Chinese Financial Markets: The Perspective of Economic Policy Uncertainty

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Zongxin Zhang ◽  
Ying Chen ◽  
Weijie Hou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

The global financial market shocks have intensified due to the COVID-19 epidemic and other impacts, and the impacts of economic policy uncertainty on the financial system cannot be ignored. In this paper, we construct asymmetric risk spillover networks of Chinese financial markets based on five sectors: bank, securities, insurance, diversified finance, and real estate. We investigate the complexity of the risk spillover effect of Chinese financial markets and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the level of network contagion of financial risk. The study yields three findings. First, the cross-sectoral risk spillover effects of Chinese financial markets are asymmetric in intensity. The bank sector is systemically important in the risk spillover network. Second, the level of risk stress in the real estate sector has increased in recent years, and it plays an important role in the path of financial risk contagion. Third, Economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on the level of network contagion of financial risk of Chinese financial markets.

scholarly journals Economic Policy Uncertainty, Environmental Regulation, and Green Innovation—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese High-Tech Enterprises

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 9503
Author(s):  
Yue Zhu ◽  
Ziyuan Sun ◽  
Shiyu Zhang ◽  
Xiaolin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Environmental Regulation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Environmental Regulations ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Green Innovation ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Innovation Output ◽  
The Impact

As the continuous changes in environmental regulations have a non-negligible impact on the innovation activities of micro subjects, and economic policy uncertainty has become one of the important influencing factors to be considered in the development of enterprises. Therefore, based on the panel data of Chinese high-tech enterprises from 2012–2017, this paper explores the impact of heterogeneous environmental regulations on firms’ green innovation from the perspective of economic policy uncertainty as a moderating variable. The empirical results show that, first, market-incentivized environmental regulation instruments have an inverted U-shaped relationship with innovation output, while voluntary environmental regulation produces a significant positive impact. Second, the U-shaped relationship between market-based environmental regulation and innovation output becomes more pronounced when economic policy uncertainty is high. However, it plays a negative moderating role in regulating the relationship between voluntary-based environmental regulation and innovation output. This paper not only illustrates the process of technological innovation by revealing the intrinsic mechanism of environmental regulation on firm innovation, but also provides insights for government in environmental governance from the perspective of economic policy uncertainty as well.

scholarly journals COVID-19, Oil Price, Bitcoin, and US Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from ARDL Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Hanan Naser
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

The pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) creates fear and uncertainty causing extraordinary disruption to financial markets and global economy. Witnessing the fastest selloff in the American stock market in history with a plunge of more than 28% in S&P 500 has increased the volatility of global financial market to exceed the level observed during the financial crisis of 2008. On the other hand, Bitcoin value has shown considerable stability in the last couple of months peaking at $10,367.53 in the mid of February 2020. In this context, the aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 numbers on Bitcoin price taking into consideration number of controlling variables including WTI-oil price, S&P 500 index, financial market volatility, gold prices, and economic policy uncertainty of the US. To do so, ARDL estimation has been applied using daily data from December 31, 2019 till May 20, 2020. Key findings reveal that the daily reported cases of new infections have a marginal positive impact on Bitcoin price in the long term. However, the indirect impact associated with the fear of COVID-19 pandemic via financial market stress cannot be neglected. Bitcoin can also serve as a hedging tool against the economic policy uncertainty in the long term. In the short run, while the returns of economic policy uncertainty have no impact on Bitcoin price, the growth in the new cases of COVID-19 infection and returns of financial market volatility have more positive significant impact on Bitcoin returns.

scholarly journals Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5866
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khalid Anser ◽  
Qasim Raza Syed ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Andrew Adewale Alola ◽  
Munir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Since the turn of twenty first century, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) have escalated across the globe. These two factors have both economic and environmental impacts. However, there exists dearth of literature that expounds the impact of EPU and GPR on environmental degradation. This study, therefore, probes the impact of EPU and GPR on ecological footprint (proxy for environmental degradation) in selected emerging economies. Cross-sectional dependence test, slope heterogeneity test, Westerlund co-integration test, fully modified least ordinary least square estimator, dynamic OLS estimator, and augmented mean group estimator are employed to conduct the robust analyses. The findings reveal that EPU and non-renewable energy consumption escalate ecological footprint, whereas GPR and renewable energy plunge ecological footprint. In addition, findings from the causality test reveal both uni-directional and bi-directional causality between a few variables. Based on the findings, we deduce several policy implications to accomplish the sustainable development goals in emerging economies.

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