Influence of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Retrievals on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Southern California

Abstract The effects of precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrievals from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) on quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill are examined over two flood-prone regions of Southern California: Santa Barbara (SB) and Ventura County (VC). Two sets of QPFs are made, one using the initial water vapor field from the NCEP 40-km Eta initial analysis, and another in which the initial Eta water vapor field is modified by incorporating the PWV data from the SCIGN receivers. Lateral boundary data for the QPFs, as well as the hydrostatic component of the GPS zenith delay data, are estimated from the Eta analysis. Case studies of a winter storm on 2 February during the 1997/98 El Niño, and storms leading up to the La Conchita, California, landslide on 10 January 2005, show notably improved QPFs for the first 3–6 h with the addition of GPS PWV data. For a total of 47 winter storm forecasts between February 1998 and January 2005 the average absolute QPF improvement is small; however, QPF improvements exceed 5 mm in several underpredicted rainfall events, with GPS data also improving most cases with overpredicted rainfall. The GPS improvements are most significant (above or near the 2σ level) when the low-level winds off the coast of Southern California are from the southern (SW to SE) quadrant. To extend the useful forecast skill enhancement beyond six hours, however, additional sources of water vapor data over broader areas of the adjacent Pacific Ocean are needed.

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Verification of NWP Model Analyses and Radiosonde Humidity Data with GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Estimates during AMMA

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/2009waf2222239.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 24 (4) ◽

pp. 1085-1101 ◽

Cited By ~ 39

Author(s):

O. Bock ◽

M. Nuret

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

Diurnal Cycle ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Precipitable Water ◽

Precipitable Water Vapor ◽

Precipitation Forecast ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Multidisciplinary Analysis ◽

Correction Scheme ◽

Nwp Model

Abstract This paper assesses the performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS) operational analysis and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses I and II over West Africa, using precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrievals from a network of ground-based GPS receivers operated during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). The model analyses show reasonable agreement with GPS PWV from 5-daily to monthly means. Errors increase at shorter time scales, indicating that these global NWP models have difficulty in handling the diurnal cycle and moist processes at the synoptic scale. The ECMWF-IFS analysis shows better agreement with GPS PWV than do the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses (the RMS error is smaller by a factor of 2). The model changes in ECMWF-IFS were not clearly reflected in the PWV error over the period of study (2005–08). Radiosonde humidity biases are diagnosed compared to GPS PWV. The impacts of these biases are evidenced in all three model analyses at the level of the diurnal cycle. The results point to a dry bias in the ECMWF analysis in 2006 when Vaisala RS80-A soundings were assimilated, and a diurnally varying bias when Vaisala RS92 or Modem M2K2 soundings were assimilated: dry during day and wet during night. The overall bias is offset to wetter values in NCEP–NCAR reanalysis II, but the diurnal variation of the bias is observed too. Radiosonde bias correction is necessary to reduce NWP model analysis humidity biases and improve precipitation forecast skill. The study points to a wet bias in the Vaisala RS92 data at nighttime and suggests that caution be used when establishing a bias correction scheme.

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National Weather Service Forecasters Use GPS Precipitable Water Vapor for Enhanced Situational Awareness during the Southern California Summer Monsoon

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-14-00095.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 96 (11) ◽

pp. 1867-1877 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Angelyn W. Moore ◽

Ivory J. Small ◽

Seth I. Gutman ◽

Yehuda Bock ◽

John L. Dumas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

North American ◽

Southern California ◽

Situational Awareness ◽

Precipitable Water ◽

Flash Floods ◽

Precipitable Water Vapor ◽

North American Monsoon ◽

National Weather Service ◽

Weather Service

Abstract During the North American Monsoon, low-to-midlevel moisture is transported in surges from the Gulf of California and Eastern Pacific Ocean into Mexico and the American Southwest. As rising levels of precipitable water interact with the mountainous terrain, severe thunderstorms can develop, resulting in flash floods that threaten life and property. The rapid evolution of these storms, coupled with the relative lack of upper-air and surface weather observations in the region, make them difficult to predict and monitor, and guidance from numerical weather prediction models can vary greatly under these conditions. Precipitable water vapor (PW) estimates derived from continuously operating ground-based GPS receivers have been available for some time from NOAA’s GPS-Met program, but these observations have been of limited utility to operational forecasters in part due to poor spatial resolution. Under a NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology project, 37 real-time stations were added to NOAA’s GPS-Met analysis providing 30-min PW estimates, reducing station spacing from approximately 150 km to 30 km in Southern California. An 18–22 July 2013 North American Monsoon event provided an opportunity to evaluate the utility of the additional upper-air moisture observations to enhance National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster situational awareness during the rapidly developing event. NWS forecasters used these additional data to detect rapid moisture increases at intervals between the available 1–6-h model updates and approximately twice-daily radiosonde observations, and these contributed tangibly to the issuance of timely flood watches and warnings in advance of flash floods, debris flows, and related road closures.

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KORELASI MUSIMAN ANTARA ZENITH WET DELAY (ZWD) DAN DEBIT SUNGAI DI DAS CIKAPUNDUNG HULU, KAWASAN BANDUNG UTARA, JAWA BARAT

Seminar Nasional Geomatika ◽

10.24895/sng.2018.3-0.1033 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

pp. 741

Author(s):

Wedyanto Kuntjoro ◽

Z.A.J. Tanuwijaya ◽

A. Pramansyah ◽

Dudy D. Wijaya

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

Precipitable Water ◽

Precipitable Water Vapor ◽

Zenith Wet Delay

Kandungan total uap air troposfer (precipitable water vapor) di suatu tempat dapat diestimasi berdasarkan karakteristik bias gelombang elektromagnetik dari satelit navigasi GPS, berupa zenith wet delay (ZWD). Pola musiman deret waktu ZWD sangat penting dalam studi siklus hidrologi khususnya yang terkait dengan kejadian-kejadian banjir. Artikel ini menganalisis korelasi musiman antara ZWD dan debit sungai Cikapundung di wilayah Bandung Utara berdasarkan estimasi rataan pola musimannya. Berdasarkan rekonstruksi sejumlah komponen harmonik ditemukan bahwa pola musiman ZWD memiliki kemiripan dan korelasi yang kuat dengan pola musiman debit sungai. Pola musiman ZWD dan debit sungai dipengaruhi secara kuat oleh fenomena pertukaran Monsun Asia dan Monsun Australia. Korelasi linier di antara keduanya menunjukkan hasil yang sangat kuat, dimana hampir 90% fluktuasi debit sungai dipengaruhi oleh kandungan uap air di troposfer dengan level signifikansi 95%. Berdasarkan spektrum amplitudo silang dan koherensi, kedua kuantitas ini nampak didominasi oleh siklus monsun satu tahunan disertai indikasi adanya pengaruh siklus tengah tahunan dan 4 bulanan.

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HGPT2: An ERA5-Based Global Model to Estimate Relative Humidity

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13112179 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 2179

Author(s):

Pedro Mateus ◽

Virgílio B. Mendes ◽

Sandra M. Plecha

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

Relative Humidity ◽

Real Time ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Precipitable Water ◽

Precipitable Water Vapor ◽

Global Navigation Satellite Systems ◽

International Gnss Service ◽

Weighted Mean Temperature

The neutral atmospheric delay is one of the major error sources in Space Geodesy techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and its modeling for high accuracy applications can be challenging. Improving the modeling of the atmospheric delays (hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic) also leads to a more accurate and precise precipitable water vapor estimation (PWV), mostly in real-time applications, where models play an important role, since numerical weather prediction models cannot be used for real-time processing or forecasting. This study developed an improved version of the Hourly Global Pressure and Temperature (HGPT) model, the HGPT2. It is based on 20 years of ERA5 reanalysis data at full spatial (0.25° × 0.25°) and temporal resolution (1-h). Apart from surface air temperature, surface pressure, zenith hydrostatic delay, and weighted mean temperature, the updated model also provides information regarding the relative humidity, zenith non-hydrostatic delay, and precipitable water vapor. The HGPT2 is based on the time-segmentation concept and uses the annual, semi-annual, and quarterly periodicities to calculate the relative humidity anywhere on the Earth’s surface. Data from 282 moisture sensors located close to GNSS stations during 1 year (2020) were used to assess the model coefficients. The HGPT2 meteorological parameters were used to process 35 GNSS sites belonging to the International GNSS Service (IGS) using the GAMIT/GLOBK software package. Results show a decreased root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias values relative to the most used zenith delay models, with a significant impact on the height component. The HGPT2 was developed to be applied in the most diverse areas that can significantly benefit from an ERA5 full-resolution model.

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