Artificial neural network for improving the estimation of weighted mean temperature in Egypt

One of the most important parameters in meteorological data is the Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV). It can be measured by radiosonde stations (RS), but the fact is that RS are not available in all times. Therefore, GNSS satellite signals are considered an accurate function to compute it within a conversation factor. The conversation factor depends on the weighted mean temperature ( T m {T_{m}} ) which is non-measurable. In this research, a new idea to estimate T m {T_{m}} is provided, which can potentially contribute to the GNSS meteorology. The T m {T_{m}} was designed, including six RS, over one year in Egypt as input parameters. The machine learning (ML) model has been utilized in the design (IBM SPSS Statistics 25 package). The new model needs to collect the day of year (DOY), site location information and surface temperature to predict the T m {T_{m}} . The results of ML model and four other empirical models (Bevis et al., Wayan and Iskanda, Yao and Elhaty et al. models) are compared. The validation work is carried out, using the radiosonde data, and results indicate that the new T m {T_{m}} model can achieve the best performance with RMS of 1.7 K.

A Weighted Mean Temperature Model with Nonlinear Elevation Correction Using China as an Example

The weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter for determining the tropospheric delay in transforming precipitable water vapor. We used the reanalysis data provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to analyze the distribution characteristics of Tm in the vertical direction in China. To address the problem that the precision of the traditional linear function model is limited in fitting the Tm profile, a scheme using the linear and Fourier functions to fit the Tm profile was constructed. Based on the least squares principle (LSQ) to fit the change in its coefficients over time, a Tm model for China with nonlinear elevation correction (CTm-h) was constructed. The experimental results show that, using ECMWF and radiosonde data to evaluate the precision of the CTm-h model, the RMS is 3.43 K and 4.64 K, respectively. Compared to GPT2w, the precision of the CTm-h model in China is increased by about 26.8%. The CTm-h model provides a significant improvement in the correction effect of Tm in the vertical direction, and the Tm profile calculated by the model is closer to the reference value.

A New Approach for the Development of Grid Models Calculating Tropospheric Key Parameters over China

Pressure, water vapor pressure, temperature, and weighted mean temperature (Tm) are tropospheric parameters that play an important role in high-precision global navigation satellite system navigation (GNSS). As accurate tropospheric parameters are obligatory in GNSS navigation and GNSS water vapor detection, high-precision modeling of tropospheric parameters has gained widespread attention in recent years. A new approach is introduced to develop an empirical tropospheric delay model named the China Tropospheric (CTrop) model, providing meteorological parameters based on the sliding window algorithm. The radiosonde data in 2017 are treated as reference values to validate the performance of the CTrop model, which is compared to the canonical Global Pressure and Temperature 3 (GPT3) model. The accuracy of the CTrop model in regards to pressure, water vapor pressure, temperature, and weighted mean temperature are 5.51 hPa, 2.60 hPa, 3.09 K, and 3.35 K, respectively, achieving an improvement of 6%, 9%, 10%, and 13%, respectively, when compared to the GPT3 model. Moreover, three different resolutions of the CTrop model based on the sliding window algorithm are also developed to reduce the amount of gridded data provided to the users, as well as to speed up the troposphere delay computation process, for which users can access model parameters of different resolutions for their requirements. With better accuracy of estimating the tropospheric parameters than that of the GPT3 model, the CTrop model is recommended to improve the performance of GNSS positioning and navigation.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of GNSS-derived precipitable water vapor during heavy rainfall events in Guilin, China

Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), as an important indicator of atmospheric water vapor, can be derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations with the advantages of high precision and all-weather capacity. GNSS-derived PWV with a high spatiotemporal resolution has become an important source of observations in meteorology, particularly for severe weather conditions, for water vapor is not well sampled in the current meteorological observing systems. In this study, an empirical atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) model for Guilin is established using the radiosonde data from 2012 to 2017. Then, the observations at 11 GNSS stations in Guilin are used to investigate the spatiotemporal features of GNSS-derived PWV under the heavy rainfalls from June to July 2017. The results show that the new Tm model in Guilin has better performance with the mean bias and Root Mean Square (RMS) of − 0.51 and 2.12 K, respectively, compared with other widely used models. Moreover, the GNSS PWV estimates are validated with the data at Guilin radiosonde station. Good agreements are found between GNSS-derived PWV and radiosonde-derived PWV with the mean bias and RMS of − 0.9 and 3.53 mm, respectively. Finally, an investigation on the spatiotemporal characteristics of GNSS PWV during heavy rainfalls in Guilin is performed. It is shown that variations of PWV retrieved from GNSS have a direct relationship with the in situ rainfall measurements, and the PWV increases sharply before the arrival of a heavy rainfall and decreases to a stable state after the cease of the rainfall. It also reveals the moisture variation in several regions of Guilin during a heavy rainfall, which is significant for the monitoring of rainfalls and weather forecast.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Key Tropospheric Parameters from ERA5 and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Products Using Radiosonde Data and GNSS Measurements

Tropospheric delay is a major error source in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and the weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a key parameter in precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrieval. Although reanalysis products like the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) data have been used to calculate and model the tropospheric delay, Tm, and PWV, the limitations of the temporal and spatial resolutions of the reanalysis data have affected their performance. The release of the fifth-generation accurate global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) and the second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) provide the opportunity to overcome these limitations. The performances of the zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD), zenith wet delay (ZWD), Tm, and zenith hydrostatic delay (ZHD) of ERA5 and MERRA-2 data from 2016 to 2017 were evaluated in this work using GNSS ZTD and radiosonde data over the globe. Taking GNSS ZTD as a reference, the ZTD calculated from MERRA-2 and ERA5 pressure-level data were evaluated in temporal and spatial scales, with an annual mean bias and root mean square (RMS) of 2.3 and 10.9 mm for ERA5 and 4.5 and 13.1 mm for MERRA-2, respectively. Compared to radiosonde data, the ZHD, ZWD, and Tm derived from ERA5 and MERRA-2 data were also evaluated on temporal and spatial scales, with annual mean bias values of 1.1, 1.7 mm, and 0.14 K for ERA5 and 0.5, 4.8 mm, and –0.08 K for MERRA-2, respectively. Meanwhile, the annual mean RMS was 4.5, 10.5 mm, and 1.03 K for ERA5 and 4.4, 13.6 mm, and 1.17 K for MERRA-2, respectively. Tropospheric parameters derived from MERRA-2 and ERA5, with improved temporal and spatial resolutions, can provide a reference for GNSS positioning and PWV retrieval.

A Novel Modeling Strategy of Weighted Mean Temperature in China Using RNN and LSTM

In the meteorology of Global Navigation Satellite System, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a key parameter in the process of converting the zenith wetness delay into precipitable water vapor, and it plays an important role in water vapor monitoring. In this research, two deep learning algorithms, namely, recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), were used to build a high-precision weighted mean temperature model for China using their excellent time series memory capability. The model needs site location information and measured surface temperature to predict the weighted mean temperature. We used data from 118 stations in and around China provided by the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive from 2010 to 2015 to train the model and data from 2016 for model testing. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the RNN_Tm and LSTM_Tm models were 3.01K and 2.89K, respectively. Compared with the values calculated by the empirical GPT3 model, the accuracy was improved by 31.1% (RNN_Tm) and 33.9% (LSTM_Tm). In addition, we selected another 10 evenly distributed stations in China and used the constructed model to test the prediction capability of the weighted mean temperature from 2010 to 2016. The RMSE values were 2.95K and 2.86K, which proved that the model also exhibits high generalization in non-modeling sites in China. In general, the RNN_Tm and LSTM_Tm models have a good performance in weighted mean temperature prediction.

A Regional Model for Predicting Tropospheric Delay and Weighted Mean Temperature in China Based on GRAPES_MESO Forecasting Products

Accurate tropospheric delay (TD) and weighted mean temperature (Tm) are important for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning and GNSS meteorology. For this purpose, plenty of empirical models have been built to provide estimates of TD and Tm. However, these models cannot resolve TD and Tm variations at synoptic timescales since they only model the average annual, semi-annual, and/or daily variations. As a result, the existed empirical models cannot perform well under extreme weather conditions. To address this limitation, we propose to estimate Zenith Hydrostatic Delay (ZHD), Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD), and Tm directly from the stratified numerical weather forecasting products of the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES_MESO) of China. The GRAPES_MESO forecasting data has a temporal resolution of 3 h, which provides the opportunity to resolve the synoptic variation. However, it is found that the estimated ZWD and Tm exhibit apparent systematic deviation from in situ observation-based estimates, which is due to the inherent biases in the GRAPES_MESO data. To solve this problem, we propose to correct these biases using a linear model and a spherical cap harmonic model. The estimates after correction are termed as the “CTropGrid” products. When validated by the radiosonde data, the CTropGrid product has biases of 1.5 mm, −0.7 mm, and −0.1 K, and Root Mean Square (RMS) error of 8.9 mm, 20.2 mm, and 1.5 K for ZHD, ZWD, and Tm. Compared to the widely used GPT2w model, the CTropGrid products have improved the accuracies of ZHD, ZWD, and Tm by 11.9%, 55.6%, and 60.5% in terms of RMS. When validating the Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) products (the sum of ZHD and ZWD) using the IGS ZTD data, the CTropGrid ZTD has a bias of −0.7 mm and an RMS of 35.8 mm, which is 22.7% better than the GPT2w model in terms of RMS. Besides the accuracy improvements, the CTropGrid products well model the synoptic-scale variations of ZHD, ZWD, and Tm. Compared to the existing empirical models that only capture the tidal (seasonal and/or diurnal) variations, the CTropGrid products capture well the non-tidal variations of ZHD, ZWD, and Tm, which enhances the tropospheric delay corrections and GNSS water vapor monitoring at synoptic timescales. Therefore, the CTropGrid product is an important progress in GNSS positioning and GNSS meteorology.

Linear regression models to predict the tropospheric parameters at the Global Positioning systems’ sites over the East African region

Currently, the East African tropical region has limited information about Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) data and yet the region has a high potential for its utilization. This is on the grounds that the East African tropical region is profoundly prone to climate change and fluctuation. Existing studies need data on the detailing and performance evaluation of precipitable water vapour models within East Africa. This has been so as a result of the scattered Global Positioning System (GPS) networks and other alternative water vapour measuring equipments, enormous information gaps and the absence of surface meteorological data. The accessibility and precision of surface meteorological estimations is crucial in deriving accurate GPS PWV data. In this study, the daily average, PWV, pressure, temperature and weighted mean temperature () models have been developed utilizing one year (2013) GPS PWV and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 5th Re- Analysis PWV (ERA5 PWV), total column water vapour (TCWV), surface pressure and 2 meter (2m) temperature data. The purpose of the developed models is to predict PWV over regions with data gaps where the computation of GPS Zenith Tropospheric Delays (ZTD) is impossible and in cases of station outages. In addition, the models will provide meteorological parameter where meteorological sensors are missing. The GPS PWV accuracy obtained with the developed models shows an average RMSE of 1.54 mm and MnB of 0.32 mm in comparison to the measured GPS PWV data. The ERA5 PWV accuracy obtained with the developed models shows an average RMSE of 0.33 mm and MnB of 0.01 mm in comparison to the measured ERA5 PWV data. Based on the RMSE, it was observed that the site-specific models developed can be utilized to provide estimates of nearly a similar degree of precision compared to the measured values at the thirteen stations.

Enhanced Neural Network Model for Worldwide Estimation of Weighted Mean Temperature

Precise modeling of weighted mean temperature (Tm) is critical for realizing real-time conversion from zenith wet delay (ZWD) to precipitation water vapor (PWV) in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology applications. The empirical Tm models developed by neural network techniques have been proved to have better performances on the global scale; they also have fewer model parameters and are thus easy to operate. This paper aims to further deepen the research of Tm modeling with the neural network, and expand the application scope of Tm models and provide global users with more solutions for the real-time acquisition of Tm. An enhanced neural network Tm model (ENNTm) has been developed with the radiosonde data distributed globally. Compared with other empirical models, the ENNTm has some advanced features in both model design and model performance, Firstly, the data for modeling cover the whole troposphere rather than just near the Earth’s surface; secondly, the ensemble learning was employed to weaken the impact of sample disturbance on model performance and elaborate data preprocessing, including up-sampling and down-sampling, which was adopted to achieve better model performance on the global scale; furthermore, the ENNTm was designed to meet the requirements of three different application conditions by providing three sets of model parameters, i.e., Tm estimating without measured meteorological elements, Tm estimating with only measured temperature and Tm estimating with both measured temperature and water vapor pressure. The validation work is carried out by using the radiosonde data of global distribution, and results show that the ENNTm has better performance compared with other competing models from different perspectives under the same application conditions, the proposed model expanded the application scope of Tm estimation and provided the global users with more choices in the applications of real-time GNSS-PWV retrival.