scholarly journals Influence of Oceanic Boundary Conditions in Simulations of Antarctic Climate and Surface Mass Balance Change during the Coming Century

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 938-962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Krinner ◽  
Bérangère Guicherd ◽  
Katia Ox ◽  
Christophe Genthon ◽  
Olivier Magand
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Surface Conditions ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract This article reports on high-resolution (60 km) atmospheric general circulation model simulations of the Antarctic climate for the periods 1981–2000 and 2081–2100. The analysis focuses on the surface mass balance change, one of the components of the total ice sheet mass balance, and its impact on global eustatic sea level. Contrary to previous simulations, in which the authors directly used sea surface boundary conditions produced by a coupled ocean–atmosphere model for the last decades of both centuries, an anomaly method was applied here in which the present-day simulations use observed sea surface conditions, while the simulations for the end of the twenty-first century use the change in sea surface conditions taken from the coupled simulations superimposed on the present-day observations. It is shown that the use of observed oceanic boundary conditions clearly improves the simulation of the present-day Antarctic climate, compared to model runs using boundary conditions from a coupled climate model. Moreover, although the spatial patterns of the simulated climate change are similar, the two methods yield significantly different estimates of the amplitude of the future climate and surface mass balance change over the Antarctic continent. These differences are of similar magnitude as the intermodel dispersion in the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) exercise: selecting a method for generating boundary conditions for a high-resolution model may be just as important as selecting the climate model itself. Using the anomaly method, the simulated mean surface mass balance change over the grounded ice sheet from 1981–2000 to 2081–2100 is 43-mm water equivalent per year, corresponding to a eustatic sea level decrease of 1.5 mm yr−1. A further result of this work is that future continental-mean surface mass balance changes are dominated by the coastal regions, and that high-resolution models, which better resolve coastal processes, tend to predict stronger precipitation changes than models with lower spatial resolution.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3827-3839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
Sébastien Doutreloup ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Surface Conditions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Sensitivity Experiments ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Estimates for the recent period and projections of the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) often rely on high-resolution polar-oriented regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs require large-scale boundary forcing fields prescribed by reanalyses or general circulation models (GCMs). Since the recent variability of sea surface conditions (SSCs, namely sea ice concentration, SIC, and sea surface temperature, SST) over the Southern Ocean is not reproduced by most GCMs from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), RCMs are then subject to potential biases. We investigate here the direct sensitivity of the Antarctic SMB to SSC perturbations around the Antarctic. With the RCM “Modèle Atmosphérique Régional” (MAR), different sensitivity experiments are performed over 1979–2015 by modifying the ERA-Interim SSCs with (i) homogeneous perturbations and (ii) mean anomalies estimated from all CMIP5 models and two extreme ones, while atmospheric lateral boundary conditions remained unchanged. Results show increased (decreased) precipitation due to perturbations inducing warmer, i.e. higher SST and lower SIC (colder, i.e. lower SST and higher SIC), SSCs than ERA-Interim, significantly affecting the SMB of coastal areas, as precipitation is mainly related to cyclones that do not penetrate far into the continent. At the continental scale, significant SMB anomalies (i.e greater than the interannual variability) are found for the largest combined SST/SIC perturbations. This is notably due to moisture anomalies above the ocean, reaching sufficiently high atmospheric levels to influence accumulation rates further inland. Sensitivity experiments with warmer SSCs based on the CMIP5 biases reveal integrated SMB anomalies (+5 % to +13 %) over the present climate (1979–2015) in the lower range of the SMB increase projected for the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
Pierre-Vincent Huot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Surface Conditions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Sensitivity Experiments ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Estimates for the recent period and projections of the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) often rely on high-resolution polar-oriented regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs require large-scale boundary forcing fields provided by reanalyses or general circulation models (GCMs). Since the recent variability of sea surface conditions (SSC, namely sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST)) over the Southern Ocean are not reproduced by most GCMs from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the last decades, RCMs are then subject to potential biases. We investigate here the direct sensitivity of the Antarctic SMB to SSC perturbations around the Antarctic. With the RCM MAR, different sensitivity experiments are performed over 1979–2015 by altering the ERA-Interim SSC with (i) homogeneous perturbations and (ii) mean anomalies estimated from all CMIP5 models and two extreme ones, while atmospheric lateral boundary conditions remained unchanged. Results show increased (resp. decreased) precipitation due to perturbations inducing warmer (resp. colder) SSC than ERA-Interim significantly altering the SMB of coastal areas, as precipitation is mainly related to cyclones that do not penetrate far into the continent. At the continental scale, significant SMB anomalies (i.e, greater than the interannual variability) are found for the largest combined SST/SIC perturbations. Sensitivity experiments with warmer SSC reveal integrated SMB anomalies (+5 %–+13 %) over the present climate (1979–2015) in the lower range of the SMB increase projected for the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals The modelled surface mass balance of the Antarctic Peninsula at 5.5 km horizontal resolution

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. van Wessem ◽  
S. R. M. Ligtenberg ◽  
C. H. Reijmer ◽  
W. J. van de Berg ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Meltwater Runoff ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. This study presents a high-resolution (∼  5.5 km) estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), generated by the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3 and a firn densification model (FDM). RACMO2.3 is used to force the FDM, which calculates processes in the snowpack, such as meltwater percolation, refreezing and runoff. We evaluate model output with 132 in situ SMB observations and discharge rates from six glacier drainage basins, and find that the model realistically simulates the strong spatial variability in precipitation, but that significant biases remain as a result of the highly complex topography of the AP. It is also clear that the observations significantly underrepresent the high-accumulation regimes, complicating a full model evaluation. The SMB map reveals large accumulation gradients, with precipitation values above 3000 mm we yr−1 in the western AP (WAP) and below 500 mm we yr−1 in the eastern AP (EAP), not resolved by coarser data sets such as ERA-Interim. The average AP ice-sheet-integrated SMB, including ice shelves (an area of 4.1  ×  105 km2), is estimated at 351 Gt yr−1 with an interannual variability of 58 Gt yr−1, which is dominated by precipitation (PR) (365 ± 57 Gt yr−1). The WAP (2.4  ×  105 km2) SMB (276 ± 47 Gt yr−1), where PR is large (276 ± 47 Gt yr−1), dominates over the EAP (1.7  ×  105 km2) SMB (75 ± 11 Gt yr−1) and PR (84 ± 11 Gt yr−1). Total sublimation is 11 ± 2 Gt yr−1 and meltwater runoff into the ocean is 4 ± 4 Gt yr−1. There are no significant trends in any of the modelled AP SMB components, except for snowmelt that shows a significant decrease over the last 36 years (−0.36 Gt yr−2).

scholarly journals Characteristics of the Antarctic surface mass balance, 1958–2002, using a regional atmospheric climate model

2005 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 97-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.J. Van De Berg ◽  
M.R. Van Den Broeke ◽  
C.H. Reijmer ◽  
E. Van Meijgaard
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Solid Precipitation ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Characteristics ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Climate Model

AbstractTemporal and spatial characteristics of the Antarctic specific surface mass balance (SSMB) are presented, including its components solid precipitation, sublimation/deposition and melt. For this purpose, we use the output of a regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2/ANT, horizontal resolution of ~55 km) for the period 1958–2002. RACMO2/ANT uses European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 year re-analysis (ERA-40) fields as forcing at the lateral boundaries. RACMO2/ANT underestimates SSMB in the high interior of East and West Antarctica and overestimates SSMB on the steep coastal slopes. Otherwise, the modeled spatial pattern of SSMB is in good qualitative agreement with recent compilations of in situ observations. Large-scale patterns, like the precipitation shadow effect of the Antarctic Peninsula, are well reproduced, and mesoscale SSMB patterns, such as the strong precipitation gradients on Law Dome, are well represented in the model. The integrated SSMB over the grounded ice sheet is 153mmw.e. a–1 for the period 1958–2002, which agrees within 5% with the latest measurement compilations. Sublimation and melt remove 7% and <1% respectively of the solid precipitation. We found significant seasonality of solid precipitation, with a maximum in autumn and a minimum in summer. No meaningful trend was identified for the SSMB, because the time series of solid precipitation and SSMB are affected by an inhomogeneity in 1980 within the ERA-40 fields that drive RACMO2/ANT. Sublimation, melt and liquid precipitation increase in time, which is related to a modeled increase in 2m temperature.

scholarly journals Downscaled surface mass balance in Antarctica: impacts of subsurface processes and large-scale atmospheric circulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolaj Hansen ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Fredrik Boberg ◽  
Rene Forsberg ◽  
Sebastian B. Simonsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Total Mass ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Lagrangian Framework ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) is largely determined by precipitation over the continent and subject to regional climate variability related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and other climatic drivers at the large scale. Locally however, firn and snow pack processes are important in determining SMB and the total mass balance of Antarctica and global sea level. Here, we examine factors that influence Antarctic SMB and attempt to reconcile the outcome with estimates for total mass balance determined from the GRACE satellites. This is done by having the regional climate model HIRHAM5 forcing two versions of an offline subsurface model, to estimate Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) SMB from 1980 to 2017. The Lagrangian subsurface model estimates AIS SMB of 2473.5 ± 114.4 Gt per year, while the Eulerian subsurface model variant results in slightly higher modelled SMB of 2564.8 ± 113.7 Gt per year. The majority of this difference in modelled SMB is due to melt and refreezing over ice shelves and demonstrates the importance of firn modelling in areas with substantial melt. Both the Eulerian and the Lagrangian SMB estimates are within uncertainty ranges of each other and within the range of other SMB studies. However, the Lagrangian version has better statistics when modelling the densities. There is a mean bias in modelled density of −24.0 ± 18.4 kg m−3 and −8.2 ± 15.3 kg m−3 for layers less than 550 kg m−3 for the Eulerian and Lagrangian framework, respectively. For layers with a density above 550 kg m−3 the bias is −31.7 ± 23.4 kg m−3 and −35.0 ± 23.7 kg m−3 for the Eulerian and Lagrangian framework, respectively. The mean firn 10 m temperature bias is 0.42–0.52 °C. Further, analysis of the relationship between SMB in individual drainage basins and the SAM, is carried out using a bootstrapping approach. This shows a robust relationship between SAM and SMB in half of the basins (13 out of 27). In general, when SAM is positive there is a lower SMB over the Plateau and a higher SMB on the westerly side of the Antarctic Peninsula, and vice versa when the SAM is negative. Finally, we compare the modelled SMB to GRACE data by subtracting the solid ice discharge, and find that there is a good agreement in East Antarctica, but large disagreements over the Antarctic Peninsula.There is a large difference between published estimates of discharge that make it challenging to use mass reconciliation in evaluating SMB models on the basin scale.

scholarly journals Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2, part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Melchior van Wessem ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
Brice P. Y. Noël ◽  
Erik van Meijgaard ◽  
Gerit Birnbaum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Surface Climate

Abstract. We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 (1979–2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior, and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt. Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula (AP)) now amounts to 2229 Gt y-1, with an interannual variability of 109 Gt y-1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, that now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution (~ 5.5 km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies. The updated model provides a new, high-resolution dataset of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

scholarly journals Importance of basal boundary conditions in transient simulations: case study of a surging marine-terminating glacier on Austfonna, Svalbard

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (237) ◽  
pp. 106-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
YONGMEI GONG ◽  
THOMAS ZWINGER ◽  
STEPHEN CORNFORD ◽  
RUPERT GLADSTONE ◽  
MARTINA SCHÄFER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Friction Coefficient ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Basal Friction ◽  
Transient Simulations

ABSTRACTWe assess the importance of basal boundary conditions for transient simulations of Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap between January 1995 and December 2011 and for the surge starting in 2012 by carrying out simulations with the full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice and the vertically-integrated model BISICLES. Time-varying surface mass-balance data from the regional climate model HIRHAM5 are downscaled according to elevation. Basal friction coefficient is varied through time by interpolating between two data-constrained inversions of surface velocity fields, from 1995 and 2011. Evolution of the basal boundary condition appears to be much more important for mass discharge and the dynamic response of the fast flowing unit in Basin 3 than either model choice or the downscaling method for the surface mass balance. In addition, temporally linear extrapolation of the evolution of basal friction coefficient beyond the 2011 distribution could not reproduce the expansion of the acceleration observed in southern Basin 3 between January 2012 and June 2013. This implies that changes in basal friction patterns, and in turn basal processes that are not currently represented in either model, are among the most important factors for the 2012 acceleration.

Antarctic Surface Mass Balance from 1980 to 2017

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolaj Hansen ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Fredrik Boberg ◽  
Rene Forsberg ◽  
Sebastian B. Simonsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Equal Mass ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Lagrangian Framework ◽  
The Antarctic

&lt;p&gt;The regional climate model HIRHAM5 developed for Greenland ice sheet applications has now been updated to also simulate Antarctic conditions. The outputs of the Antarctic runs have been used to force an offline subsurface model, to give estimates of the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) from 1980 to 2017.&amp;#160; Here, we compare two different versions of this offline subsurface model and evaluate how they simulate the physical properties of the uppermost part of the Antarctic firn pack. We find that the total calculated SMB of Antarctica is sensitive to the subsurface model variant.&amp;#160;One model version uses an Eulerian framework, meaning that mass is advected through layers of fixed mass. When snowfall occurs at the surface, it is added to the first layer and an equal mass from that layer is shifted to the underlying layer. The same goes for each layer in the model column, and vice versa for mass loss. The other model version uses a Lagrangian framework for the layer development. Layers evolve through splitting and merging dynamically based on a number of weighted criteria.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The model simulations are validated against in situ observations of firn temperature and subsurface density. We find a mean temperature bias of 0.42-0.52 &amp;#8451;&amp;#160; and a mean bias in modelled density of -24.0&amp;#177;18.4 kg m&amp;#8315;&amp;#179; and&amp;#160; -8.2&amp;#177;15.3 kg m&amp;#8315;&amp;#179; for layers less than 550 kg m&amp;#8315;&amp;#179; for the Eulerian and Lagrangian framework, respectively. For layers with a density above 550 kg m&amp;#8315;&amp;#179; the bais is -31.7&amp;#177;23.4 kg m&amp;#8315;&amp;#179; and -35.0&amp;#177;23.7 kg m&amp;#8315;&amp;#179;&amp;#160; for the Eulerian and Lagrangian framework, respectively. The modelling framework also&amp;#160; affects the resulting&amp;#160; SMB. The Lagrangian framework,&amp;#160; estimates a total SMB&amp;#160; of 2473.5&amp;#177;114.4 Gt yr&amp;#8315;&amp;#185; while the Eulerian framework results in slightly higher modelled SMB of&amp;#160; 2564.8&amp;#177;113.7 Gt yr&amp;#8315;&amp;#185;. The majority for this difference in modelled SMB is pinpointed to the&amp;#160; ice shelves (the SMB over grounded ice only&amp;#160; differs&amp;#160; 30 Gt yr&amp;#8315;&amp;#185;) and&amp;#160; demonstrates the importance of firn modelling in areas with substantial melt. Both the Eulerian and the Lagrangian SMB estimates are within each other's uncertainties and within range of other SMB studies. However, the Lagrangian version has the best statistics for modelling the densities. Given the importance of precipitation to Antarctic SMB, climate models must accurately simulate regional circulation patterns that modulate precipitation rates. We therefore investigate the relationship between SMB in individual drainage basins and the southern annular mode (SAM),&amp;#160; using Monte Carlo simulations. This shows a robust relationship between SAM and SMB in half of the basins (13 out of 27). In general, when SAM is positive there is a lower SMB over the Plateau and a higher SMB on the westerly side of the Antarctic Peninsula, and vice versa when the SAM is negative.&lt;/p&gt;

Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 867-884 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. M. Ligtenberg ◽  
W. J. van de Berg ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
J. G. L. Rae ◽  
E. van Meijgaard
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Climate Model
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