scholarly journals A Bayesian Regression Approach to Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Fiji Region

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (13) ◽  
pp. 3425-3445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Kevin J. E. Walsh ◽  
Johnny C. L. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Bayesian Regression ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Neutral Conditions

Abstract This study presents seasonal prediction schemes for tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga (FST) region. Two separate Bayesian regression models are developed: (i) for cyclones forming within the FST region (FORM) and (ii) for cyclones entering the FST region (ENT). Predictors examined include various El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and large-scale environmental parameters. Only those predictors that showed significant correlations with FORM and ENT are retained. Significant preseason correlations are found as early as May–July (approximately three months in advance). Therefore, May–July predictors are used to make initial predictions, and updated predictions are issued later using October–December early-cyclone-season predictors. A number of predictor combinations are evaluated through a cross-validation technique. Results suggest that a model based on relative vorticity and the Niño-4 index is optimal to predict the annual number of TCs associated with FORM, as it has the smallest RMSE associated with its hindcasts (RMSE = 1.63). Similarly, the all-parameter-combined model, which includes the Niño-4 index and some large-scale environmental fields over the East China Sea, appears appropriate to predict the annual number of TCs associated with ENT (RMSE = 0.98). While the all-parameter-combined ENT model appears to have good skill over all years, the May–July prediction of the annual number of TCs associated with FORM has two limitations. First, it underestimates (overestimates) the formation for years where the onset of El Niño (La Niña) events is after the May–July preseason or where a previous La Niña (El Niño) event continued through May–July during its decay phase. Second, its performance in neutral conditions is quite variable. Overall, no significant skill can be achieved for neutral conditions even after an October–December update. This is contrary to the performance during El Niño or La Niña events, where model performance is improved substantially after an October–December early-cyclone-season update.

scholarly journals The roles of ENSO on the occurrence of abruptly recurving tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific Ocean Basin

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 139-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. K. W. Cheung
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Pressure Field ◽  
El Nino ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Abstract. The abruptly recurving tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific Ocean Basin during El Niño and La Niña events are studied. Temporal and spatial variations of these anomalous tracks under different phases of ENSO are shown. The anomalies of the pressure field in relation to ENSO circulation for the occurrence of the abruptly recurving cyclone tracks are investigated using fuzzy method. These are supplemented by wind field analyses. It is found that the occurrence of recurving-left (RL) and recurving-right (RR) tropical cyclones under the modification of the steering currents, including the re-adjustment of the westerly trough, the expansion or contraction of the sub-tropical high pressure, the intensifying easterly flow and the strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow, can be in El Niño or La Niña events. Evidently, there is a higher chance of occurrence of anomalous tropical cyclone trajectories in El Niño rather than La Niña events, but there is not any pronounced spatial pattern of anomalous tropical cyclone tracks. By analyzing the pressure-field, it is seen RL (RR) tropical cyclones tend to occur when the subtropical high pressure is weak (strong) in El Niño and La Niña events. More importantly, how the internal force of tropical cyclones changed by the steering current, which relies upon the relative location of tropical cyclones to the re-adjustment of the weather systems, shows when and where RL and RR tropical cyclones occur in El Niño and La Niña events.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Fiji Region: Spatial Patterns and Relationship to Large-Scale Circulation

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (14) ◽  
pp. 3877-3893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Kevin J. E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
La Nina

Abstract This study examines the variations in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis positions and their subsequent tracks for different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga region (FST region) using Joint Typhoon Warning Center best-track data. Over the 36-yr period from 1970/71 to 2005/06, 122 cyclones are observed in the FST region. A large spread in the genesis positions is noted. During El Niño years, genesis is enhanced east of the date line, extending from north of Fiji to over Samoa, with the highest density centered around 10°S, 180°. During neutral years, maximum genesis occurs immediately north of Fiji with enhanced genesis south of Samoa. In La Niña years, there are fewer cyclones forming in the region than during El Niño and neutral years. During La Niña years, the genesis positions are displaced poleward of 12°S, with maximum density centered around 15°S, 170°E and south of Fiji. The cyclone tracks over the FST region are also investigated using cluster analysis. Tracks during the period 1970/71–2005/06 are conveniently described using three separate clusters, with distinct characteristics associated with different ENSO phases. Finally, the role of large-scale environmental factors affecting interannual variability of TC genesis positions and their subsequent tracks in the FST region are investigated. Favorable genesis positions are observed where large-scale environments have the following seasonal average thresholds: (i) 850-hPa cyclonic relative vorticity between −16 and −4 (×10−6 s−1), (ii) 200-hPa divergence between 2 and 8 (×10−6 s−1), and (iii) environmental vertical wind shear between 0 and 8 m s−1. The subsequent TC tracks are observed to be steered by mean 700–500-hPa winds.

scholarly journals Influence of ENSO on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Australia

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1304-1321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Surendra P. Rauniyar ◽  
Kevin J. E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

Abstract This study examines the influence of ENSO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall during boreal winter for the period 1998–2010 over the Maritime Continent (MC) and Australia using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and reanalysis data. The diurnal cycles are composited for the ENSO cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) phases. The k-means clustering technique is then applied to group the TRMM data into six clusters, each with a distinct diurnal cycle. Despite the alternating patterns of widespread large-scale subsidence and ascent associated with the Walker circulation, which dominates the climate over the MC during the opposing phases of ENSO, many of the islands of the MC show localized differences in rainfall anomalies that depend on the local geography and orography. While ocean regions mostly experience positive rainfall anomalies during La Niña, some local regions over the islands have more rainfall during El Niño. These local features are also associated with anomalies in the amplitude and characteristics of the diurnal cycle in these regions. These differences are also well depicted in large-scale dynamical fields derived from the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim).

scholarly journals Dynamics of Late Spring Rainfall Reduction in Recent Decades over Southeastern China

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 2240-2247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Qiu ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Xiaogang Guo ◽  
Aijun Pan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
La Nina

Abstract Since 1951, late spring (May) rainfall over southeastern China (SEC) has decreased by more than 30% from its long-term average, in contrast to a rainfall increase in boreal summer. The dynamics have yet to be fully determined. This paper shows that as the Indo-Pacific enters into a La Niña phase, significant negative mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies grow over the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific sector. The associated large-scale southwesterly anomalies transport moisture to the nearby South China Sea and the SEC region, contributing to a higher rainfall. A presence of a Philippine Sea anticyclonic (PSAC) pattern, arising from a decaying El Niño, strengthens the rain-conducive flow to SEC, but it is not a necessary condition. During the past decades, an increase in protracted El Niño events accompanied by a reduction in La Niña episodes has contributed to the May rainfall decline. The extent to which climate change is contributing is discussed.

scholarly journals Representation of Boreal Winter MJO and Its Teleconnection in a Dynamical Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (21) ◽  
pp. 8803-8818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyerim Kim ◽  
Myong-In Lee ◽  
Daehyun Kim ◽  
Hyun-Suk Kang ◽  
Yu-Kyung Hyun
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Forecast Lead Time

This study examines the representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its teleconnection in boreal winter in the Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), using 20 years (1991–2010) of hindcast data. The sensitivity of the performance to the polarity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also investigated. The real-time multivariate MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon is used to assess MJO prediction skill while intraseasonal 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies are used to evaluate the MJO teleconnection. GloSea5 exhibits significant MJO prediction skill up to 25 days of forecast lead time. MJO prediction skill in GloSea5 also depends on initial MJO phases, with relatively enhanced (degraded) performance when the initial MJO phase is 2 or 3 (8 or 1) during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast period. GloSea5 depicts the observed MJO teleconnection patterns in the extratropics realistically up to 2 weeks albeit weaker than the observed. The ENSO-associated basic-state changes in the tropics and in the midlatitudes are reasonably represented in GloSea5. MJO prediction skill during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast is slightly higher in neutral and La Niña years than in El Niño years, especially in the upper-level zonal wind anomalies. Presumably because of the better representation of MJO-related tropical heating anomalies, the Northern Hemispheric MJO teleconnection patterns in neutral and La Niña years are considerably better than those in El Niño years.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 2523-2538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Kuleshov ◽  
F. Chane Ming ◽  
L. Qi ◽  
I. Chouaibou ◽  
C. Hoareau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The South ◽  
La Nina ◽  
South Indian

Abstract. Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC) archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Niña events compared to El Niño events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Niña seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western) part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest) shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Niño (La Niña) events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables.

scholarly journals Visualizing the Large-Scale Patterns of ENSO-Related Climate Anomalies in North America

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacqueline J. Shinker ◽  
Patrick J. Bartlein
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The variations of large-scale climatic controls and surface responses through the annual cycle during strong positive (El Niño) and negative (La Niña) phase ENSO events are analyzed to assess the within-year and among-year variations of climate anomalies. Data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis project are presented as small-multiple maps to illustrate the spatial and temporal variability in North American climate associated with extreme phases of ENSO. Temperature, mean sea level pressure, 500-mb geopotential heights, and 850-mb specific humidity have composite-anomaly patterns that exhibit the greatest degree of spatial and temporal coherence. In general, the composite-anomaly patterns for El Niño and La Niña events are of opposite sign, with stronger, more spatially coherent anomalies occurring during El Niño events than during La Niña events. However, the strength and coherency of the precipitation anomaly patterns are reduced in the interior intermountain west during both positive and negative phase of ENSO. The variations in precipitation anomalies are compared to the 500-mb omega and 850-mb specific humidity composite-anomaly patterns, which provide information on the controls of precipitation by large-scale vertical motions and moisture availability thus providing information on the specific mechanisms associated with precipitation variability during ENSO events.

scholarly journals Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific Using the Coupled Model POAMA-2

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 668-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Cottrill ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Eun-Pa Lim ◽  
Sally Langford ◽  
Kay Shelton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The development of a dynamical model seasonal prediction service for island nations in the tropical South Pacific is described. The forecast model is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical seasonal forecast system. Using a hindcast set for the period 1982–2006, POAMA is shown to provide skillful forecasts of El Niño and La Niña many months in advance and, because the model faithfully simulates the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall associated with displacements of the southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and ITCZ during La Niña and El Niño, it also provides good predictions of rainfall throughout the tropical Pacific region. The availability of seasonal forecasts from POAMA should be beneficial to Pacific island countries for the production of regional climate outlooks across the region.

How Much Do Tropical Cyclones Affect Seasonal and Interannual Rainfall Variability over the Western North Pacific?

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (20) ◽  
pp. 5495-5510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hisayuki Kubota ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Interannual Rainfall Variability

Abstract The authors investigate the effects of tropical cyclones (TCs) on seasonal and interannual rainfall variability over the western North Pacific (WNP) by using rainfall data at 22 stations. The TC-induced rainfall at each station is estimated by using station data when a TC is located within the influential radius (1000 km) from the station. The spatial–temporal variability of the proportion of TC rainfall is examined primarily along the east–west island chain near 10°N (between 7° and 13°N) and the north–south island chain near 125°E (between 120° and 130°E). Along 10°N the seasonality of total rainfall is mainly determined by non-TC rainfall that is influenced by the WNP monsoon trough. The proportion of the TC rain is relatively low. During the high TC season from July to December, TC rainfall accounts for 30% of the total rainfall in Guam, 15%–23% in Koror and Yap, and less than 10% at other stations. In contrast, along 125°E where the WNP subtropical high is located, the TC rainfall accounts for 50%–60% of the total rainfall between 18° and 26°N during the peak TC season from July to October. In Hualien of Taiwan, TC rainfall exceeds 60% of the total rainfall. The interannual variability of the TC rainfall and total rainfall is primarily modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Along 10°N, the ratio of TC rainfall versus total rainfall is higher than the climatology during developing and mature phases of El Niño (from March to the following January), whereas the ratio is below the climatology during the decaying phase of El Niño. The opposite is true for La Niña, except that the impact of La Niña is shorter in duration. Furthermore, in summer of El Niño developing years, the total seasonal rainfall increases primarily because of the increase of TC rainfall. In the ensuing autumn, an anticyclonic anomaly develops over the Philippine Sea and TC rainfall shifts eastward; as a result, the total rainfall over the Philippines and Taiwan decreases. The total rainfall to the east of 140°E, however, changes little, because the westward passage of TCs enhances TC rainfall, which offsets the decrease of non-TC rainfall. Along the meridional island chain between 120° and 130°E, the total rainfall anomaly is affected by ENSO starting from the autumn to the following spring, and the variation in TC rainfall dominates the total rainfall variation only in autumn (August–November) of ENSO years. The results from this study suggest that in the tropical WNP and subtropical East Asian monsoon regions (east of 120°E), the seasonal and interannual variations of rainfall are controlled by changes in nonlocal circulations. These changes outside the monsoon domain may substantially affect summer monsoon rainfall by changing TC genesis and tracks.

Seasonal–Interannual Variation and Prediction of Wet and Dry Season Rainfall over the Maritime Continent: Roles of ENSO and Monsoon Circulation

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 3675-3695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuantuan Zhang ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Xingwen Jiang ◽  
Ping Zhao
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The authors analyze the seasonal–interannual variations of rainfall over the Maritime Continent (MC) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and large-scale monsoon circulation. They also investigate the predictability of MC rainfall using the hindcast of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). The seasonal evolution of MC rainfall is characterized by a wet season from December to March and a dry season from July to October. The increased (decreased) rainfall in the wet season is related to the peak-decaying phase of La Niña (El Niño), whereas the increased (decreased) rainfall in the dry season is related to the developing phase of La Niña (El Niño), with an apparent spatial incoherency of the SST–rainfall relationship in the wet season. For extremely wet cases of the wet season, local warm SST also contributes to the above-normal rainfall over the MC except for the western area of the MC due to the effect of the strong East Asian winter monsoon. The CFSv2 shows high skill in predicting the main features of MC rainfall variations and their relationships with ENSO and anomalies of the large-scale monsoon circulation, especially for strong ENSO years. It predicts the rainfall and its related circulation patterns skillfully in advance by several months, especially for the dry season. The relatively lower skill of predicting MC rainfall for the wet season is partly due to the low prediction skill of rainfall over Sumatra, Malay, and Borneo (SMB), as well as the unrealistically predicted relationship between SMB rainfall and ENSO.

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