scholarly journals Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
Natalia Pilguj ◽  
Bartosz Czernecki
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Southern Central ◽  
Convective Inhibition

Capsule summaryStronger convective inhibition causes a decline in the frequency of thunderstorms over the United States, while a substantial increase in low-level moisture supports more thunderstorms over southern, central and northern parts of Europe.

scholarly journals Climatology of Severe Local Storm Environments and Synoptic-Scale Features over North America in ERA5 Reanalysis and CAM6 Simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8339-8365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Funing Li ◽  
Daniel R. Chavas ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Daniel T. Dawson II
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Bias

AbstractSevere local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them.

“A Particularly Serious Crime”

2021 ◽  
pp. 158-184
Author(s):  
Elliott Young
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Home Country ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
President Obama ◽  
Felony Conviction ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Serious Crime ◽  
The One ◽  
Radical Shift

Machado was just five years old in 1990 when she was brought to the United States by her mother, who was desperate to escape the civil war raging in their home country of El Salvador; she wanted a better life for her two young daughters. In 2015, she was picked up in a traffic stop in Arkansas which triggered her deportation based on a felony conviction from a decade earlier. Machado’s story reveals a radical shift that had been happening since the mid-1990s. Unprecedented numbers of immigrants were being caught in a system that penalized people with mandatory deportations for relatively low-level crimes. Machado does not fit easily into the Manichean distinction made by President Obama in 2014 between “felons” on the one hand and “families” on the other. Machado, like so many others, is both.

Assessing the Impact of Remittances on Schooling: the Mexican Experience

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1850033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Borraz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Census Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Child Human Capital ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of remittances on child human capital in Mexico. During the 90’s and in particular after the “tequila crisis” Mexican workers increased the remittances that were sent to their homes from the United States. I will analyze the effect of such increasing source of income on child human capital decisions. Contrary to Hanson and Woodruff (2003) the results obtained from Census data indicate a positive and small effect of remittances on schooling only for children living in cities with fewer than 2,500 inhabitants and with mothers with a very low level of education. However its magnitude is not substantial.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Moisture Transport over the United States and Mexico as Evaluated in the NCEP Regional Reanalysis

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 710-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo ◽  
Muthuvel Chelliah ◽  
Marco L. Carrera ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins ◽  
Wesley Ebisuzaki
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

Abstract The large-scale atmospheric hydrologic cycle over the United States and Mexico derived from the 23-yr NCEP regional reanalysis (RR) was evaluated by comparing the RR products with satellite estimates, independent sounding data, and the operational Eta Model three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system (EDAS). In general, the winter atmospheric transport and precipitation are realistic. The climatology and interannual variability of the Pacific, subtropical jet streams, and low-tropospheric moisture transport are well captured. During the summer season, the basic features and the evolution of the North American monsoon (NAM) revealed by the RR compare favorably with observations. The RR also captures the out-of-phase relationship of precipitation as well as the moisture flux convergence between the central United States and the Southwest. The RR is able to capture the zonal easterly Caribbean low-level jet (CALLJ) and the meridional southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Together, they transport copious moisture from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico and from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Plains, respectively. The RR systematically overestimates the meridional southerly Gulf of California low-level jet (GCLLJ). A comparison with observations suggests that the meridional winds from the RR are too strong, with the largest differences centered over the northern Gulf of California. The strongest winds over the Gulf in the RR extend above 700 hPa, while the operational EDAS and station soundings indicate that the GCLLJ is confined to the boundary layer.

scholarly journals Hydrodynamics of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet and Its Relationship to Precipitation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1477-1494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry H. Cook ◽  
Edward K. Vizy
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South America ◽  
The United States ◽  
Caribbean Basin ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
South Central ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract The easterly Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) is a prominent climate feature over the Intra-America Seas, and it is associated with much of the water vapor transport from the tropical Atlantic into the Caribbean Basin. In this study, the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) is analyzed to improve the understanding of the dynamics of the CLLJ and its relationship to regional rainfall variations. Horizontal momentum balances are examined to understand how jet variations on both diurnal and seasonal time scales are controlled. The jet is geostrophic to the first order. Its previously documented semidiurnal cycle (with minima at about 0400 and 1600 LT) is caused by semidiurnal cycling of the meridional geopotential height gradient in association with changes in the westward extension of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). A diurnal cycle is superimposed, associated with a meridional land–sea breeze (solenoidal circulation) onto the north coast of South America, so that the weakest jet velocities occur at 1600 LT. The CLLJ is present throughout the year, and it is known to vary in strength semiannually. Peak magnitudes in July are related to the seasonal cycle of the NASH, and a second maximum in February is caused by heating over northern South America. From May through September, zonal geopotential gradients associated with summer heating over Central America and Mexico induce meridional flow. The CLLJ splits into two branches, including a southerly branch that connects with the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) bringing moisture into the central United States. During the rest of the year, the flow remains essentially zonal across the Caribbean Basin and into the Pacific. A strong (weak) CLLJ is associated with reduced (enhanced) rainfall over the Caribbean Sea throughout the year in the NARR. The relationship with precipitation over land depends on the season. Despite the fact that the southerly branch of the CLLJ feeds into the meridional GPLLJ in May through September, variations in the CLLJ strength during these months do not impact U.S. precipitation, because the CLLJ strength is varying in response to regional-scale forcing and not to changes in the large-scale circulation. During the cool season, there are statistically significant correlations between the CLLJ index and rainfall over the United States. When the CLLJ is strong, there is anomalous northward moisture transport across the Gulf of Mexico into the central United States and pronounced rainfall increases over Louisiana and Texas. A weak jet is associated with anomalous westerly flow across the southern Caribbean region and significantly reduced rainfall over the south-central United States. No connection between the intensity of the CLLJ and drought over the central United States is found. There are only three drought summers in the NARR period (1980, 1988, and 2006), and the CLLJ was extremely weak in 1988 but not in 1980 or 2006.

scholarly journals Tornado Damage Rating Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1509-1528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Bryan T. Smith ◽  
Jeremy S. Grams ◽  
Andrew R. Dean ◽  
Joseph C. Picca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Damage Indicators ◽  
Tornado Damage

Abstract Previous work with observations from the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) network in the United States has shown that the probability of damage from a tornado, as represented by EF-scale ratings, increases as low-level rotational velocity increases. This work expands on previous studies by including reported tornadoes from 2014 to 2015, as well as a robust sample of nontornadic severe thunderstorms [≥1-in.- (2.54 cm) diameter hail, thunderstorm wind gusts ≥ 50 kt (25 m s−1), or reported wind damage] with low-level cyclonic rotation. The addition of the nontornadic sample allows the computation of tornado damage rating probabilities across a spectrum of organized severe thunderstorms represented by right-moving supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. Dual-polarization variables are used to ensure proper use of velocity data in the identification of tornadic and nontornadic cases. Tornado damage rating probabilities increase as low-level rotational velocity Vrot increases and circulation diameter decreases. The influence of height above radar level (or range from radar) is less obvious, with a muted tendency for tornado damage rating probabilities to increase as rotation (of the same Vrot magnitude) is observed closer to the ground. Consistent with previous work on gate-to-gate shear signatures such as the tornadic vortex signature, easily identifiable rotation poses a greater tornado risk compared to more nebulous areas of cyclonic azimuthal shear. Additionally, tornado probability distributions vary substantially (for similar sample sizes) when comparing the southeast United States, which has a high density of damage indicators, to the Great Plains, where damage indicators are more sparse.

scholarly journals Observational Analysis of the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 813-838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Israel L. Jirak ◽  
William R. Cotton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have a large influence on the weather over the central United States during the warm season by generating essential rainfall and severe weather. To gain insight into the predictability of these systems, the precursor environments of several hundred MCSs across the United States were reviewed during the warm seasons of 1996–98. Surface analyses were used to identify initiating mechanisms for each system, and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to examine the environment prior to MCS development. Similarly, environments unable to support organized convective systems were also investigated for comparison with MCS precursor environments. Significant differences were found between environments that support MCS development and those that do not support convective organization. MCSs were most commonly initiated by frontal boundaries; however, features that enhance convective initiation are often not sufficient for MCS development, as the environment needs also to be supportive for the development and organization of long-lived convective systems. Low-level warm air advection, low-level vertical wind shear, and convective instability were found to be the most important parameters in determining whether concentrated convection would undergo upscale growth into an MCS. Based on these results, an index was developed for use in forecasting MCSs. The MCS index assigns a likelihood of MCS development based on three terms: 700-hPa temperature advection, 0–3-km vertical wind shear, and the lifted index. An evaluation of the MCS index revealed that it exhibits features consistent with common MCS characteristics and is reasonably accurate in forecasting MCSs, especially given that convective initiation has occurred, offering the possibility of usefulness in operational forecasting.

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