scholarly journals The Present and Future of the West African Monsoon: A Process-Oriented Assessment of CMIP5 Simulations along the AMMA Transect

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6471-6505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Roehrig ◽  
Dominique Bouniol ◽  
Francoise Guichard ◽  
Frédéric Hourdin ◽  
Jean-Luc Redelsperger
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Partial Recovery ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon

Abstract The present assessment of the West African monsoon in the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) indicates little evolution since the third phase of CMIP (CMIP3) in terms of both biases in present-day climate and climate projections. The outlook for precipitation in twenty-first-century coupled simulations exhibits opposite responses between the westernmost and eastern Sahel. The spread in the trend amplitude, however, remains large in both regions. Besides, although all models predict a spring and summer warming of the Sahel that is 10%–50% larger than the global warming, their temperature response ranges from 0 to 7 K. CMIP5 coupled models underestimate the monsoon decadal variability, but SST-imposed simulations succeed in capturing the recent partial recovery of monsoon rainfall. Coupled models still display major SST biases in the equatorial Atlantic, inducing a systematic southward shift of the monsoon. Because of these strong biases, the monsoon is further evaluated in SST-imposed simulations along the 10°W–10°E African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) transect, across a range of time scales ranging from seasonal to intraseasonal and diurnal fluctuations. The comprehensive set of observational data now available allows an in-depth evaluation of the monsoon across those scales, especially through the use of high-frequency outputs provided by some CMIP5 models at selected sites along the AMMA transect. Most models capture many features of the African monsoon with varying degrees of accuracy. In particular, the simulation of the top-of-atmosphere and surface energy balances, in relation with the cloud cover, and the intermittence and diurnal cycle of precipitation demand further work to achieve a reasonable realism.

scholarly journals Influence of ENSO on the West African Monsoon: Temporal Aspects and Atmospheric Processes

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 3193-3210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathieu Joly ◽  
Aurore Voldoire
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Temporal Aspects

Abstract A significant part of the West African monsoon (WAM) interannual variability can be explained by the remote influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Whereas the WAM occurs in the boreal summer, ENSO events generally peak in late autumn. Statistics show that, in the observations, the WAM is influenced either during the developing phase of ENSO or during the decay of some long-lasting La Niña events. The timing of ENSO thus seems essential to the teleconnection process. Composite maps for the developing ENSO illustrate the large-scale mechanisms of the teleconnection. The most robust features are a modulation of the Walker circulation and a Kelvin wave response in the high troposphere. In the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CNRM-CM3), the teleconnection occurs unrealistically at the end of ENSO events. An original sensitivity experiment is presented in which the ocean component is forced with a reanalyzed wind stress over the tropical Pacific. This allows for the reproduction of the observed ENSO chronology in the coupled simulation. In CNRM-CM3, the atmospheric response to ENSO is slower than in the reanalysis data, so the influence on the WAM is delayed by a year. The two principal features of the teleconnection are the timing of ENSO onsets and the time lag of the atmospheric response. Both are assessed separately in 16 twentieth-century simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The temporal aspects of the ENSO teleconnection are reproduced with difficulty in state-of-the-art coupled models. Only four models simulate an impact of ENSO on the WAM during the developing phase.

scholarly journals Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1777-1794
Author(s):  
Ellen Berntell ◽  
Qiong Zhang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Julia C. Tindall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

scholarly journals On What Scale Can We Predict the Agronomic Onset of the West African Monsoon?

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (4) ◽  
pp. 1571-1589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rory G. J. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Caroline L. Bain ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Douglas J. Parker
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Noise Analysis ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
New Method ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Spatial Consistency ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Local Rainfall

Abstract Accurate prediction of the commencement of local rainfall over West Africa can provide vital information for local stakeholders and regional planners. However, in comparison with analysis of the regional onset of the West African monsoon, the spatial variability of the local monsoon onset has not been extensively explored. One of the main reasons behind the lack of local onset forecast analysis is the spatial noisiness of local rainfall. A new method that evaluates the spatial scale at which local onsets are coherent across West Africa is presented. This new method can be thought of as analogous to a regional signal against local noise analysis of onset. This method highlights regions where local onsets exhibit a quantifiable degree of spatial consistency (denoted local onset regions or LORs). It is found that local onsets exhibit a useful amount of spatial agreement, with LORs apparent across the entire studied domain; this is in contrast to previously found results. Identifying local onset regions and understanding their variability can provide important insight into the spatial limit of monsoon predictability. While local onset regions can be found over West Africa, their size is much smaller than the scale found for seasonal rainfall homogeneity. A potential use of local onset regions is presented that shows the link between the annual intertropical front progression and local agronomic onset.

scholarly journals A Lagrangian perspective on stable water isotopes during the West African Monsoon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Johannes Diekmann ◽  
Matthias Schneider ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
Andries Jan de Vries ◽  
Stephan Pfahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Water Isotopes ◽  
Stable Water Isotopes ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon

A hydrological onset and withdrawal index for the West African monsoon

2008 ◽  
Vol 96 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 179-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Dalu ◽  
M. Gaetani ◽  
M. Baldi
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon

scholarly journals Coupled Land–Atmosphere Intraseasonal Variability of the West African Monsoon in a GCM

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
pp. 5557-5571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally L. Lavender ◽  
Christopher M. Taylor ◽  
Adrian J. Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
West African ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Surface Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract Recent observational studies have suggested a role for soil moisture and land–atmosphere coupling in the 15-day westward-propagating mode of intraseasonal variability in the West African monsoon. This hypothesis is investigated with a set of three atmospheric general circulation model experiments. 1) When soil moisture is fully coupled with the atmospheric model, the 15-day mode of land–atmosphere variability is clearly identified. Precipitation anomalies lead soil moisture anomalies by 1–2 days, similar to the results from satellite observations. 2) To assess whether soil moisture is merely a passive response to the precipitation, or an active participant in this mode, the atmospheric model is forced with a 15-day westward-propagating cycle of regional soil moisture anomalies based on the fully coupled mode. Through a reduced surface sensible heat flux, the imposed wet soil anomalies induce negative low-level temperature anomalies and increased pressure (a cool high). An anticyclonic circulation then develops around the region of wet soil, enhancing northward moisture advection and precipitation to the west. Hence, in a coupled framework, this soil moisture–forced precipitation response would provide a self-consistent positive feedback on the westward-propagating soil moisture anomaly and implies an active role for soil moisture. 3) In a final sensitivity experiment, soil moisture is again externally prescribed but with all intraseasonal fluctuations suppressed. In the absence of soil moisture variability there are still pronounced surface sensible heat flux variations, likely due to cloud changes, and the 15-day westward-propagating precipitation signal is still present. However, it is not as coherent as in the previous experiments when interaction with soil moisture was permitted. Further examination of the soil moisture forcing experiment in GCM experiment 2 shows that this precipitation mode becomes phase locked to the imposed soil moisture anomalies. Hence, the 15-day westward-propagating mode in the West African monsoon can exist independently of soil moisture; however, soil moisture and land–atmosphere coupling act to feed back on the atmosphere and further enhance and organize it.

scholarly journals Impact of Assimilated Precipitation-Sensitive Radiances on the NU-WRF Simulation of the West African Monsoon

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (9) ◽  
pp. 3881-3900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Q. Zhang ◽  
T. Matsui ◽  
S. Cheung ◽  
M. Zupanski ◽  
C. Peters-Lidard
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Full Description ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
State Dependent

Abstract This work assimilates multisensor precipitation-sensitive microwave radiance observations into a storm-scale NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model simulation of the West African monsoon. The analysis consists of a full description of the atmospheric states and a realistic cloud and precipitation distribution that is consistent with the observed dynamic and physical features. The analysis shows an improved representation of monsoon precipitation and its interaction with dynamics over West Africa. Most significantly, assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave radiance has a positive impact on the distribution of precipitation intensity and also modulates the propagation of cloud precipitation systems associated with the African easterly jet. Using an ensemble-based assimilation technique that allows state-dependent forecast error covariance among dynamical and microphysical variables, this work shows that the assimilation of precipitation-sensitive microwave radiances over the West African monsoon rainband enables initialization of storms. These storms show the characteristics of continental tropical convection that enhance the connection between tropical waves and organized convection systems.

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